Kozak is a symbol of “freezing” the conflict, not concessions to Ukraine
The recent statement by the new head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Yermak that the deputy head of the Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration Dmitry Kozak is more inclined towards dialogue with Ukraine than Vladimir Putin's assistant Vladislav Surkov is based on external impressions of Dmitry Kozak's behavior and does not correspond to his real actions in terms of resolving issues of regional conflicts.
Vladimir Volya, international affairs expert at Ukrainian Policy Analysis and Management, stated this in a commentary to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Ermak’s impressions of Kozak are based on episodic meetings, expert opinions and interviews - the information that is available on the Internet. Perhaps these impressions of Ermak also determine President Vladimir Zelensky’s idea of Kozak.
At the same time, if we talk about how these impressions correspond to reality, then there may be an erroneous interpretation of the facts. Which means that he is less conflicted regarding Ukraine? These are just behavioral features. One politician (Surkov) is more expressive, inclined to make controversial comparisons, raise thorny questions, and argue. The other (Kozak) reacts to everything quite calmly, phlegmatically.
But this does not mean that they are not like-minded people. I think that Ermak’s, and not only his, impressions of Kozak are connected precisely with his behavioral characteristics. I don’t think Kozak is committed to any serious changes in Russian policy towards Ukraine and Donbass. Kozkak is like a caretaker to whom frozen conflicts are handed over for storage.
If you look at his political biography, then as a career biography of an official, it looks good. Even if (there are) the “Kozak formula”, the “Kozak memorandum”. But, at the same time, in terms of effectiveness, for example, in terms of the settlement in Transnistria, we see that the “Kozak memorandum” remained on paper.
This is similar to the fate of all these “Morel plans” and “Steinmeier formulas” in our country. There was no progress. Therefore, Kozak is a “supply manager” who is given “for storage” topics that cannot be quickly completed. I don’t think that Kozak is ready to make concessions for the sake of lifting sanctions, as Andrei Ermak said.
Nothing like this will happen if there is no progress on strategic issues of settlement in Donbass, i.e. the format of special status or features of self-government, amnesty and its scope, control over the border and territory during elections.
Without resolving these issues in the format in which Russia imagines it, one can hardly expect concessions on its part. Kozak is a symbol of “freezing” the conflict, putting it on the back burner,” Volya concluded.
The head of the Perspektiva information and analytical center, Pavel Rudyakov, also does not expect any changes from the arrival of Dmitry Kozak in the Ukrainian direction of Russian politics.
“Both Surkov and Kozak are pursuing the line that is determined by Russian President Vladimir Putin. As far as I can judge, Kozak is a more concrete, pragmatic person, more concerned with some informal issues.
But I don’t think that with his arrival in the Ukrainian direction, the general situation in Russian politics will somehow change significantly. The subjective factor will work if it corresponds to objective circumstances,” Rudyakov concluded.
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