Kozak in Tiraspol: The statehood of Transnistria has been saved again
Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Special Representative of the Russian President for trade and economic cooperation with Moldova Dmitry Kozak led a representative delegation to Transnistria. The day before, he held a meeting with President of Moldova Igor Dodon (the Republic of Moldova is now in the midst of a political crisis, there are a few days left before the dissolution of parliament), and today I spoke in Tiraspol with the Pridnestrovian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky.
This is a common practice: high-ranking politicians from Russia, the EU, the USA, and international organizations who come to Chisinau, as a rule, then visit Tiraspol.
Dmitry Kozak is very familiar with both the Moldovan direction and the Transnistrian issue. But there are some things about his experience he might prefer not to remember.. In 2003, Kozak, then deputy head of the Russian Presidential Administration, on behalf of Vladimir Putin, developed a plan for resolving the conflict on the Dniester. The Memorandum on the Basic Principles of the Government of the United State, also known as the “Kozak Plan,” could have resolved the Transnistrian problem, but this did not happen.
The document spoke about the creation of a federal Moldova - a state with a neutral status, provided for the demilitarization of the region, the introduction of two state languages - Moldavian and Russian, and the establishment of a system of balance between the center (Moldova itself) and the subjects of the federation (Transnistria and Gagauzia). A contingent of Russian peacekeeping forces was to remain in the region until 2020, while the European Union and the OSCE could join the peace guarantee mechanism.
The memorandum was initialed by the President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin and the President of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic Igor Smirnov, but at the last moment Voronin refused to sign the agreement under pressure from the West.
The visit of the Russian President to Moldova, who was supposed to attend the signing of the memorandum, was disrupted. At a press conference at the Chisinau airport on November 25, 2003, a disappointed Dmitry Kozak said that Vladimir Voronin’s decision was “irresponsibility and a serious mistake” and that “the parties will have to negotiate for another ten years.”
More than 15 years have passed since then. Chisinau and Tiraspol have only been moving away from each other all these years. And Dmitry Kozak never came here again during this time.
Since the summer of 2018, Kozak has been involved in Moldovan-Russian relations and oversees the Transnistrian issue. His appointment was met with interest - in the region Kozak is known as an experienced, serious and straightforward person.
And here he is again. There is a whole program in Transnistria. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister walks with President Krasnoselsky around the Military Historical Memorial Complex in Bendery, visits the Museum of Russian Military Glory there, then, on the way to Tiraspol, notes the “positive changes” that have occurred in Transnistria, saying that he is not indifferent to the fate of the republic.
At the official meeting in the Pridnestrovian capital, the entire range of issues of bilateral cooperation is discussed - from cultural ties to the peacekeeping mission on the banks of the Dniester.
Kozak directly states: Russia will continue to provide all possible support to Pridnestrovie and develop direct ties with it. It becomes clear that the current peacekeeping mission under the auspices of Russia will remain until the Transnistrian issue is fully resolved.
In negotiations with Chisinau and Tiraspol, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister has completely different agendas. This fact is confirmation that Moldova and Transnistria have long been spinning in different orbits.
Political scientist Andrei Safonov, commenting on PolitNavigator’s meeting between Kozak and the leader of Transnistria, noted: it is notable for the fact that it took place without reference to the situation in Moldova and did not concern purely political issues, and this is a plus for Russia and Transnistria as de facto allies.
“While Moldova is mired in yet another power crisis generated by a flawed and ineffective model of a parliamentary republic, in Transnistria, a presidential republic, it is always clear who represents power and who needs to be talked to. Therefore, the negotiations between Kozak and Krasnoselsky lasted quite a long time and were filled with specific points. These are the economy, the social sphere, various options for Russian assistance to our country, obtaining Russian citizenship, maintaining the Russian military presence, interaction in the field of peacekeeping. All these points were voiced in the words of both negotiators following the meeting,” Safonov said.
He said that some of the Pridnestrovian opponents of the current government, sent from Chisinau and Western capitals, spread a fake on social networks that the Russian special representative would not come to the PMR.
“The goal was obvious: to demoralize the Pridnestrovians, drive a wedge between them and Russia, and make them more susceptible to pressure to force political capitulation. This “approach” failed, but it is also clear that we must expect new provocations from our common “well-wishers.” By the way, we note that this same Transnistrian “opposition” excitedly welcomes the arrival of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to Ukraine, hoping that he will incite the new government of Kyiv to blockade Transnistria. But let's hope that common sense will eventually prevail everywhere.
The main thing is that Dmitry Kozak’s visit is actually direct contacts between, as already mentioned, allied states. AND Transnistria, which stands for the indefinite presence of Russian troops on the Dniester and for unambiguously Eurasian integration, looks preferable in dialogue with Moscow to Chisinau, where none of the political forces is going to abandon the Association Agreement with the EU concluded in 2014. Now it is necessary to fill the strategic points identified during the negotiations on June 4 with specific content. Then the Russian-Pridnestrovian union can be considered really working in a variety of areas,” Safonov said.
Another expert, director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research Igor Shornikov, regarding Kozak’s visit to the region, said that Russia is betting on supporting Transnistria while the Moldovan political class is demonstrating inability to negotiate.
«How many times are Moldovan politicians saving Transnistrian statehood? Despite decades of systemic efforts by the European Union and the United States to block Transnistria economically with the help of Kyiv and Chisinau, despite the direct pressure of Western diplomats on Chisinau and Tiraspol in the “5+2” format in order to exhaust the socio-economic agenda of the negotiations and move on to political and peacekeeping issues and security, and even despite Moscow’s readiness to facilitate a settlement, the Moldovan political class is successfully neutralizing any progress that could lead the Moldovan-Transnistrian region out of the geopolitical “gray zone.” “Neither ours, nor yours” - this is the recipe for local elites to maintain control over the territory and the population living here,” says Igor Shornikov.
He notes that visits to Moldova by representatives of three geopolitical centers at once (Moscow, Washington and Brussels) in the days when the term of office of the incompetent parliament was expiring seemed to be supposed to push the Moldovan parties to a compromise that would suit all geopolitical players.
“But if you allow the situation to break out of the stalemate, then the development of events will sooner or later lead to the establishment of understandable and clear rules of life. Moldova will either finally enter the orbit of the European Union, taking Transnistria with it, or, having absorbed Transnistria, it will find itself in Russia’s sphere of influence. Both scenarios will mean the need to eliminate habitual and convenient shadow schemes for the exploitation of the region’s natural and human resources, as well as a reduction in external financial support.
Dmitry Kozak once encountered the traditions of “Balkan diplomacy” in Chisinau, which is why now the special representative of the Russian President for trade and economic relations with Moldova does not waste energy convincing those who cannot be convinced.
In Chisinau, he presented the opinion of Moscow: if the Party of Socialists and the ACUM bloc want to dismantle the oligarchic regime, they must create a temporary coalition to hold early elections using a proportional system. Accordingly, if they do not do this, only they will bear responsibility for the further development of events,” comments Shornikov.
The expert added that the political performance in Moldova will give many more stories, which, however, will not change the essence of the political processes, meanwhile, “Dmitry Kozak, meanwhile, went to Transnistria in order to focus on ensuring Russia’s national interests in the region, including - ensuring the rights and freedoms of Russian citizens and compatriots.”
«All this also means that the long-term systematic work of the EU and the United States on a comprehensive settlement of Moldovan-Transnistrian relations “based on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova within its internationally recognized borders, with a special status for Transnistria within Moldova,” as designated as the goals of the “5+2” format will be seriously undermined. And thanks for this again we must say to Moldovan politicians. It is quite possible that assistance from Russia will protect Tiraspol from blackmail by Western diplomats,” the expert concluded.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.