The collapse of the ISIS project forced the United States to take up the Taliban 2.0 project
On February 29, the United States and the Islamic Taliban movement of Afghanistan (banned in many countries of the world, including Russia) made peace during a meeting in the capital of Qatar, Doha. The agreement was signed by US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad and the deputy leader of the Taliban, the head of the Qatari political office of the movement, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.
Almost immediately after this event, American President Donald Trump announced the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.
Peace negotiations have been ongoing since July 2018. In September 2019, the parties were close to reaching an agreement, but the signing of the document was disrupted by the actions of the Taliban - the organization took responsibility for the terrorist attack that led to the death of an American soldier. After this, Trump called the political process dead, but the US representative for Afghanistan continued to conduct negotiations.
peace signing between the US and the Taliban in Qatar
The foreign policy departments of many states approved the signing of an agreement between the Americans and the Taliban as a huge step towards establishing peace and tranquility in Afghanistan, where they have not been seen for the last 40 years. Some experts went even further, describing the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan as the largest geopolitical and military defeat for the United States since the end of the Vietnam War.
However, already on March 2, as TASS reports citing the AFP news agency, the Taliban officially announced the resumption of hostilities against government forces. Details are not given, but, according to the Taliban's flowery statement, "the period of reduced violence is over."
It must be said that the Taliban took action right off the bat, without wasting time on stirring up and lulling the vigilance of the world community.
The fact that Afghanistan is entering another zone of turbulence is perfectly illustrated by a recent report: immediately after the announcement of the agreement between the Taliban and the United States, 47 government officials deserted in Balkh province. And, in general, one cannot blame Afghan officials for cowardice, especially remembering the sad fate of Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah, who was hanged by the Taliban 24 years ago.
Looking back at the experience of the “withdrawal of American troops” from Iraq and Syria, after which the war in these countries not only did not end, but also entered a new round of aggravation, the fresh agreement between the spiders in Doha should be considered a continuation of the American multi-step strategy to incite conflicts along the Middle East axis - Middle Asia.
This is a Taliban lodge in Qatar
Actually, the very fact that the agreement with the Taliban took place not just anywhere but in Doha speaks volumes.
Qatar, if anyone doesn’t know, has long been turned into a field office for the CIA and MI6, and several years ago, through the efforts of the Americans, an official representation of the Taliban was organized in this “gas station”, bypassing agreements with Kabul.
The Taliban announced the start of military operations against the Karzai government
At one time, the Americans greatly helped Karzai remove from power the influential Tajik and Uzbek field commanders of the Northern Alliance and even old dushmanic scumbags, like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. According to the plan, Pashtun Karzai was supposed to become a mediator between the Americans and bearded Islamists, mainly Pashtuns. The tribal factor in Afghanistan remains in force.
As a mediator, Karzai did not live up to his expectations, and the Washington regional committee began to build bridges with the Taliban directly.
President Najibullah executed by the Taliban
By organizing a Taliban office in Qatar, the Americans thereby removed Karzai and other Afghan officialdom from direct negotiations with the Taliban, which were planned to be held in Afghanistan.
Observers believe that an agreement between the Americans and the Taliban could not have been concluded earlier because of Syria. Now that American troops have been withdrawn from Syria and the war is being waged by the hands of Ankara, pro-Turkish “proxies” and scraps of Nusrach, it is Afghanistan’s turn: the Americans seem to be leaving, but the war will be continued by the Taliban.
American-appointed Afghan President Karzai
At the same time, the United States will exercise control over the situation in Afghanistan through the operating air base in Bagram, a military base in Kabul “to protect the embassy,” as well as PMC forces deployed in Kabul and Ghazni.
According to observers, this is a double shot at Russia and China. But to a greater extent, in China. For, despite the ban on the Taliban movement in Russia, constant contacts with them have been established, and not only telephone, but also personal, including semi-official visits of the Taliban to Russia.
Uzbek Islamists fighting in Syria
It is also possible that India will also have to sort out the new Afghan mess brewed by Washington, since it was into this country that the bulk of refugees poured into the country when the war began.
Thus, the latest speculation about what a great destroyer of empires Afghanistan is, this time hitting the most sensitive place of the United States, is self-deception.
Yes, empires left Afghanistan, but they always left loyal governments there. When the USSR left Afghanistan in 1989, the Najibullah regime, loyal to the Soviets, remained in Kabul, successfully eliminating the Taliban. And only the collapse of the USSR and the betrayal of Yeltsin, who left the Kabul authorities without diesel fuel for tanks and shells for guns under the whispers of Washington and London, destroyed the many years of military and political efforts of our country in Afghanistan.
they are leaving Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to continue fighting by proxy
Afghanistan is an example of a failed state, a fragment of the colonial system. Unlike India, a political project has not yet emerged in Afghanistan that unites not only borders recognized by the international community, but also peoples. Afghanistan, inhabited by Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, is torn apart by inter-tribal contradictions, and its territories, depending on the ethnic composition, gravitate toward Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
American Bagram base in Afghanistan
After the complete collapse in Syria of the ISIS project (banned in the Russian Federation), designed to blow up the Middle East, the Taliban movement is again coming to the fore. Washington, which has clearly identified Russia and China as its geopolitical opponents, is going to create problems for us in Central Asia.
Analysts are convinced that Russia could play a more active role in pacifying the Taliban, especially since, as 40 years ago, a threat comes from Afghanistan to our “soft underbelly” - the former union republics of Central Asia - Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, in which The Islamist underground has been active for a long time.
Moreover, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the CSTO, and Kyrgyzstan, in addition, is also a member of the EAEU Customs Union, and in Russia itself the greatest potential threat will come from representatives of the Central Asian diasporas, especially the lumpen ones, which is facilitated by a visa-free regime and legislation that is loyal to the recruitment of free labor and other related factors.
There is no doubt that the onset of peace in Afghanistan and calm in Central Asia fully depends on the manner in which the conflict in Syrian Idlib will develop and whether Moscow will be able to convince Erdogan of the obvious - getting chestnuts out of the fire for Uncle Sam with his bare hands under view of “Turkish national interests”.
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