Crisis on the border with Poland: The situation is becoming explosive

The migration crisis, unfolding on the northern and western borders of Belarus since June, sharply worsened on November 8th. In the Grodno region, several hundred migrants gathered in a column and headed along the highway straight to the Bruzgi border crossing. Having set up a camp next to it, they, with non-resistance from the Belarusian border guards, began a real siege of the border. The population of the camp is growing and has already exceeded 2 thousand people.

In everything related to mass events, Belarusian laws are harsh to the point of indecentness, and if Belarusian citizens had been in the place of the migrants, the march, which was clearly not authorized in the established order, would have been dispersed as soon as it began, and the bulk of its participants would have been sitting in a pre-trial detention center. However, illegal immigrants are not prevented in Belarus, and official media talk about the atrocities of Polish border guards and the suffering of Kurdish girls.

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I really feel sorry for the girls. Like the bulk of migrants. People fell into a trap, becoming hostages of other people's political games. They were brought to Belarus, promised quick European happiness and a generous welfare service. But instead, they are forced to huddle in abandoned village houses and just tents in the forest, surviving in the harsh Belarusian climate. The Belarusian state has only now begun to provide some kind of systematic, organized assistance to them. Previously, the task was one - to push them across the border as quickly as possible. But the Poles and Lithuanians also have their own reasons. Border guards are simply doing their job - protecting the border from illegal entry. These people have no legal grounds to cross the border.

_{And I deliberately do not use the word “refugees” in my article, which is now being used in every possible way by propaganda. Refugee is a special legal status. And one of the conditions for receiving it is arrival directly from the territory where their life or freedom was in danger (Article 31 of the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees). Belarus, as we know, is not such a territory.}

This is not the first time that Europe has received huge flows of illegal immigrants. Compared to previous crises, the current one is small in scale. There are not millions, or at most tens of thousands of people, crossing the border, as in 2015. But this time the migration crisis overlapped with the crisis in relations between Belarus and the European Union, which does not want to recognize Lukashenko’s powers, the information war between them and the conservatism of the Poles and Lithuanians to host uninvited guests. That's why it turned out so noisy.

Frosts have begun in Belarus. And now you won’t envy visitors from countries with warm climates. It is clear that winter is coming, and the weather will only get worse. Therefore, escalation is inevitable. Now illegal immigrants are mastering the tactics of breaking through in large groups and destroying border fences with shovels, but who will guarantee that tomorrow weapons will not appear in their hands and a shootout will not begin with casualties on both sides? After this, the situation may completely get out of control.

_{Everything has gone far and, although the matter has already frankly smelled of kerosene, the Belarusian side is not trying to reduce the tension. According to pro-government TV presenter Igor Tur, with a snap of Lukashenko’s fingers, there may be no migrants in Belarus by tomorrow morning. Perhaps, Tur, as usual, is exaggerating - removing tens of thousands of people from the Middle East from Belarusian territory is a non-trivial task. But Minsk is quite capable of blocking the migration channel and starting to resolve the problem.}

Belarusian state propaganda claims that illegal immigrants are a problem of the European Union, not Belarus. Alas, this is not entirely true. People are on the territory of Belarus, and therefore the Belarusian state bears responsibility for them, their destinies and the problems they create with their presence and actions.

_{There is no doubt (and his propaganda speaks about this almost openly) that Lukashenko wants to use the migration crisis as an instrument of political pressure on Europe, forcing it to negotiate and, accordingly, his own legitimation and restoration of the Western vector, which was tightly nailed down last August its notorious multi-vector policy. So far it’s not going well - instead of negotiations, the Europeans are threatening sanctions.}

Meanwhile, winter is approaching and the situation is getting worse. Whether the Belarusian and Polish authorities have enough brains to avoid leading to a catastrophe – we’ll see in the very near future.