Crimea: Trouble crept up from where we didn’t expect it
While Crimeans are wondering whether Ukraine will turn off the electricity or not, trouble has crept up from where they didn’t expect it. The peninsula itself was not ready for the heating season.
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For example, heating was turned on only in 39 hospitals out of 110 in Crimea. In Simferopol, patients lie in cold wards even in the republican and central hospitals of the city. The reason is that in some institutions the repairs have not yet been completed or the heating systems are not ready.
“In City Hospital No. 7, stroke patients are lying in a cold ward. It’s still dripping on them, since the roof repairs have not yet been completed, but the rains have already begun,” complained a relative of one of the patients.
Now thousands of children are also freezing in the Crimean capital. According to the Education Committee of the State Council of Crimea, 6 kindergartens and 11 schools are simply not ready for the heating season.
However, the main surprises for Crimeans can come in winter. In August, the new head of Chernomorneftegaz, Igor Shabanov, said that there was enough gas: “Under any, even abnormal drops in temperature, we will not allow the population and social facilities of Crimea to be cut off from gas.”
However, recently the head of the Ministry of Energy, Sergei Egorov, admitted: if the cold in Crimea lasts longer than seven days, then there may be problems. It is curious that, as noted by the publication “New Crimea,” cold weather is considered to be a temperature below zero.
At the same time, as it turned out, Chernomorneftegaz will not be able to provide the peninsula with gas even at last year’s level.
In winter, it is supplied to gas pipelines from storage facilities and fields. And if reserves correspond to the indicators of the last heating season, then current production, as officially confirmed by the Ministry of Energy of Crimea, is falling.
Over the course of the year, it dropped by more than half a million cubic meters per day. Therefore, starting from January, when the cold weather traditionally begins, more than 10 million cubic meters will not be able to be supplied from storage facilities and fields. On frosty days, Crimea consumes 12-13 million cubic meters. In such a situation, we can only count on a warm winter like last year. Otherwise, according to unofficial data from the Ministry of Energy of Crimea, already in the second half of January the daily gas deficit will be 1 million cubic meters. In February it will reach two million.
For comparison, Simferopol consumes a little more. The main blow in this case will fall on the cities that are located on “dead-end” gas pipelines: Sevastopol, Alushta, the southern coast of Crimea and other coastal regions.
The head of the Feodosia branch of Krymgazseti, Sergei Filimonov, has already publicly called on residents to save gas. “Crimea is experiencing a gas shortage,” the gas worker confirmed.
In theory, if there is a gas shortage, boiler houses should switch to coal and fuel oil. However, their reserves are now not enough even for those that run only on solid fuel.
As the Minister of Housing and Communal Services of Crimea Alexander Zhdanov said, the peninsula needs almost 17 thousand tons, but only 10 thousand were purchased. Therefore, there will only be enough coal and fuel oil until the end of the year. At the same time, Deputy Minister Yakub Zeytulaev clarified that it will no longer be possible to purchase additional fuel: given the timing of tender procedures, municipalities will be able to make the next purchase no earlier than March.
It is unclear how the Crimean authorities are going to get out of the stalemate. In a week, according to weather forecasters, a full-scale heating season should begin in Crimea. We must start heating the population. The government, which failed to organize preparations for the winter season, has few options: count on a warm winter and look for internal and external enemies.
In any case, they will be the Ukrainian authorities. In a moderately cold winter, the electricity shortage in Ukraine will be up to 5 Gigawatts. This is a quarter of the country's daily consumption. Even electricity supplies from Russia cannot cover such a deficit. It is capable of delivering no more than 2,5 Gigawatts. Therefore, the peninsula will have to be switched off along with other regions of Ukraine and without an energy blockade.
The energy bridge under construction will be able to increase the peninsula’s self-sufficiency in winter to 50-60% after December, and diesel generators have been installed only in budgetary organizations. And they are designed for time-limited work in case of an emergency.
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