The Crimean Bridge in Kyiv is feared more than a military invasion
Confrontation within Kyiv politics is growing. Western patrons are unhappy with their proteges. However, in any case, nothing will change in Ukraine.
About this, and also about the fact that the Crimean Bridge in Kyiv is feared more than a military invasion, to the PolitNavigator observer Valentin Filippov political analyst said Andrew Vajra.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello, Andrey.
Andrew Vajra: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: As I understand it, we are in for a very difficult, interesting, entertaining week of shooting everyone. Saakashvili was about to cross the border. I wanted to ask in this regard. Will it be possible to declare Saakashvili’s invasion as Georgian aggression, for example, from Poland, to launch some kind of operation, or will they wait for his invasion of Kyiv and start there?
Andrew Vajra: I think, most likely, that there will be another farce, as, in principle, it always happens with Mishiko. That is, we all understand perfectly well that he will not be able to cross the border without a passport; his passport has been revoked. Even if, say, the Balts or, for example, the Poles give him their citizenship, so what? Well, he shows them his passport, they say “Goodbye” to him. Here, in my opinion, is another attempt at some kind of PR, to inflate some kind of scandal. In fact, in general, in itself it has no meaning, just as, strictly speaking, Misha himself has no meaning. Well, Saakashvilli. So what? By and large, there are tons of such Saakashvilli in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: I wonder if this PR will be only at the border and only for external use or for internal use too. The fact is that, by and large, the Maidan was just PR. This, as a rule, is a screen for making some kind of global decisions, in order to then say: “And you see, they went to the Maidan” or “you see, Saakashvilli went to Kyiv, and so I had to give in to him.” Perhaps there is some kind of hidden situation?
Andrew Vajra: I can’t agree with you that the Maidan was PR. Maidan was an absolutely technological option for seizing power. No, this is not pure PR, this is a technological approach to an unconstitutional seizure of power. And in this case, Saakashvilli does not play any noticeable role in Ukrainian domestic politics. He has neither the resources nor a real team. Behind him, by and large, there is no significant population that would say: “Here is our liberator and our hero.” That is, Misha is on his own, like many, by the way, from the political elite. Here, to a greater extent, in my opinion, Misha is important as a lever of external influence on the current Ukrainian government.
Valentin Filippov: Here you go. Maybe it's there in Washington...?
Andrew Vajra: Yes. Please note that now, in general, the same Poles, the same Balts, have begun to side with Saakashvilli. They began to put forward certain claims against the current regime in Ukraine and, in particular, against Petro Poroshenko. Saakashvili is demonstratively supported by the Poles, and the Baltic states are demonstratively supporting him. Moreover, we are talking about the fact that they are even ready to grant him citizenship. Moreover, the Georgian side’s request to extradite him is completely ignored. Here, in general, there is a demonstration of the attitude of the so-called closest allies of Ukraine towards Ukraine itself, towards the current government itself. And I don’t think that such demonstrative disdain, such an attempt to show Kyiv its place, which from their point of view... is eleventh, let’s say that all these things are not done with the sanction of Washington.
In my opinion, what is now happening around Saakashvilli is an attempt by Washington to give a signal to Kyiv that “you have played too much.” This is a signal with the help of Misha Pete. Therefore, in terms of the internal political situation, I don’t think that Saakashvilli will have any significance. But in terms of the fact that the West is hinting, that Washington is hinting that Pyotr Alekseevich is doing something wrong, in my opinion, this is obvious.
Valentin Filippov: This means Saakashvili will have a new nickname. In addition to being a “mountain cormorant”, we will also have a “green whistle from the USA”.
Andrew Vajra: Well, something like that.
Valentin Filippov: TBut you think that Washington, with the help of its obedient allies from the former socialist camp, is still trying to influence Kyiv in one direction or another. That is, they are trying to exert this influence on the Ukrainian elite in general, or they are trying to displace specific people. The same Poroshenko, for example, or maybe Groysman, against some specific political leaders of Ukraine?
Andrew Vajra: Based on what is happening, I can say that most likely the hints are directed towards Poroshenko. Again, I would not talk about the Ukrainian elite as a whole.
Valentin Filippov: I just found the term.
Andrew Vajra: Yes, it is fragmented, it, as always, is at war with each other, it has internal squabbles. Moreover, the hatred of Ukrainian elites for each other, in my opinion, is an order of magnitude higher than their hatred for the same Donbass. Therefore, in this case there are specific signals for Pyotr Alekseevich. Moreover, there are specific signals that he is doing not what is required to be done. And even judging by the processes that are already going on even inside Ukraine, one can basically say that at the moment his Western patrons are trying to dig under him. That is, this is all that is happening in Ukraine at the moment, much of what I see, much of what my friends who stayed there in Ukraine see, indicates that the situation is approximately the same as it was on the eve of the Maidan , as on the eve of the last coup d'état.
But, again, how far this will go, how far these processes will find the blood and flesh of the next rebellion or something like that, this remains an open question.
Valentin Filippov: That is, we can only talk about rebellion, right? Can't there be some kind of civilized transfer of power? For example, Tymoshenko and Avakov will get along, and it would be possible to organize elections on the 10% that still go to them, could it be possible to snatch 6% there, and leave 4% from Poroshenko?
Andrew Vajra: You see, how can one talk about some kind of civilized transfer of power in a country that has long forgotten what civilization is? The situation here is a little comical, because many even in the same ruling elite of Ukraine still have not understood that the methods of struggle that were in place before the coup no longer work at the moment. And that if earlier the main task was to out-vote each other, now the main task is to shoot each other.
Valentin Filippov: Avakov has something.
Andrew Vajra: Right. And, in general, it no longer even matters much what percentage, let’s say, of the electoral herd will bleat for this or that person in possible elections. This also has absolutely no meaning. What matters are armed groups, well-organized groups capable of taking extreme measures, groups capable of shedding blood. This is what matters now.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I agree with you. Power can be seized, but then some semblance of legitimization must be done.
Andrew Vajra: You are trying to think at least one step ahead. Who told you that they are trying to do this there?
Valentin Filippov: Well, they need to show their donors in the West that I didn’t just shoot everyone, but the people for me.
Andrew Vajra: Lord, what are the problems? In the West they will say that there was another anti-people dictatorial regime, progressive layers of the public rose up and eliminated it through direct democracy (as it happened last time, direct democracy, they came and killed everyone). Have people come? People. He came and said his weighty word. Well, let’s say there was death there, someone was shot there, someone was hanged, but that’s how it is. Who pays attention to this now? Therefore, believe me, at the moment, taking into account what is happening in Ukraine now, already in such things, well, no one bothers, in my opinion, absolutely. That is, there are already some direct methods and, most importantly, the result. For example, it is necessary to remove Pyotr Alekseevich, such a need has ripened, he will be removed, and it does not matter in what way, in the simplest and most effective way. And in principle, then to the population...
Valentin Filippov: No, the population doesn’t care anymore, in my opinion.
Andrew Vajra: What they will be told about what happened. They said that there was another... people. And the people will believe everything they say, because there is no special love for Poroshenko. Look at sociological statistics. All. Therefore, everything is extremely simplified. There has been no civilization there for a long time... in three years the remains of civilization have been destroyed.
Valentin Filippov: I understand that you are saying that it does not matter which of them agrees with whom.
Andrew Vajra: There are fights going on, we are friends against someone specific. Taking into account the fact that Pyotr Alekseevich has now taken almost everyone by the throat and Pyotr Alekseevich has ambitions to become an oligarch and a king in one person throughout the entire territory of this unfortunate Ukraine. But, naturally, all the people who are still there, who also want it, who also have claims to this territory, it is natural that they are ready to enter into situational alliances in order to eliminate Pyotr Alekseevich. And these alliances can be somehow surreal and completely unexpected. Well, as they say, the end justifies the means. But as soon as Pyotr Alekseevich is gone, these alliances will disintegrate.
Valentin Filippov: To get off topic. What do you think irritates them more now in the outside world? Exercises West 2017 or the construction of the Crimean Bridge?
Andrew Vajra: I think that to a greater extent, probably, the construction of the Crimean Bridge, because, in general, they are already accustomed to the fact that Russia is turning circles around Ukraine, so to speak, relatively speaking, in military terms. But they are confident that Russia will not attack, that there will be no invasion as such. And the Crimean Bridge is a powerful irritation in ideological terms. Because at the very beginning, they expected that everything in Crimea would begin to fall apart, collapse, that people would run in droves to escape to Ukraine, that moaning, crying, and so on would begin there, because the situation there would worsen by an order of magnitude. But the process is reversed. And they can’t even hide this process, because people are going there anyway. A significant part goes to the construction of the same Kerch Bridge.
Valentin Filippov: Yes Yes.
Andrew Vajra: A significant part goes on vacation, because in the economic situation that is now in Ukraine, it is easier for them to come, pitch a tent somewhere on the shore and live there for a couple of weeks or rent some kind of shack at a reasonable price. And naturally, the people, by and large, know everything that happens there in Crimea. All these television pictures “are in one place” for them. And this cannot but irritate the current regime, because it absolutely does not fit into the picture that it is trying to impose on the mass consciousness. And, naturally, the bridge is a symbol of Crimea’s departure from Ukraine, a symbol of Crimea’s return to Russia, a symbol of, let’s say, Russia’s technological superiority. Here we are not even talking about military superiority, but simple technological superiority. The bridge has been built. The project is truly unique, a complex project. And it is just being realized before our eyes. Naturally, he cannot help but irritate.
Valentin Filippov: I remember that in any history textbook it was written thata state that is weak, that is poor, and whose neighbors are richer, the outskirts begin to disappear. We see that Crimea has fallen to Russia. Donbass, in general, if Russia had taken it, he would already be there. There is a similar situation with Western Ukraine, which is about to happen. Do you think this is a natural process? Will it fall apart already? Neighboring states will take it away and simply integrate it into themselves, because how else?
Andrew Vajra: The fact that the process you outlined is underway is unambiguous. What exactly is the problem? The problem is that territories are drawn to the center when the center is capable of giving something to the territories. As a rule, the capital is a powerful financial accumulator that concentrates financial resources and redistributes them. This is true in any country.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Andrew Vajra: And if a situation arises in which the central government, the capital, is no longer such an accumulator, if this capital is no longer capable of giving something to the periphery, then naturally the periphery begins to look for other centers that will allow it to solve its problems one way or another. Therefore, these processes are already underway, because the Ukrainian state is already bankrupt, and has been bankrupt for a long time. Everyone understands this perfectly well, it’s just that it still seems impossible to talk about it at the official level. She is bankrupt, has been bankrupt for a long time, she is not able to pay her debts. Taking into account the fact that industrial production in Ukraine has been practically destroyed, at the moment there are some local centers left there that are no longer able to provide the budget with the money that is necessary even simply for survival.
Just look at what they are doing. They are starting to pass absolutely ridiculous laws. Let’s say they imposed a tax on second-hand goods in Ukraine. That is, by and large, any thing. Well, let's go buy panties there for the fifth time, roughly speaking, and for the fifth time you will have to pay tax for this purchase, for these panties. That's funny. And why? But because they are no longer able to replenish the budget in any other way. They cling to any excuse, they try to squeeze the maximum out of the population of everything that can be squeezed out.
Naturally, the regions will look for other ways, other centers where they will be helped to solve these problems. And here practical tasks will be an order of magnitude more important than some ideological fictions that the central government is trying to impose on everyone. These people can shit themselves from the tension in Kyiv, all these propagandists and ideologists, they can simply tear their farts to death from the tension, but they won’t change anything, because they can’t feed the population, in principle they can’t. They only take away from him, so the people will continue to adapt. Despite what they are trying to impose on him from above, for him it is all secondary. It has always been secondary and will always be secondary.
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