Which of the Moldovan oppositionists will be in isolation by voting day?

On October 4, the election campaign officially started in Moldova ahead of general local elections, at which in a month the country's citizens will have to elect heads of localities - mayors - and councilors of local councils.

Political life is boiling, international organizations have already deployed their monitoring missions. Representatives of the pro-presidential ruling party PAS are putting strong pressure on strong competitors. It is still unclear whether the opposition will survive this fight.

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Political scientist Alexander Korinenko In an interview "PolitNavigator" assessed the prospects for the elections and told why the battle for Chisinau is interesting, for what purpose effective local managers change their party cards several times, why international observers turn a blind eye to government interference in the electoral process, and much more.

PolitNavigator: What can you say about the upcoming elections today? Are the general contours of the campaign emerging? Is attendance expected?

Alexander Korinenko: I can say with confidence that the results of local elections may be unpredictable, given the pressure that is being put on the opposition, and it is unknown who will be sitting in temporary detention centers across the country by November 5th. The main battle, as always, is expected for Chisinau, but the situation in Balti is very interesting.

If the ruling party does not commit chaos, then it will lose these cities miserably. The north and south of the country will support the opposition forces, but the right will fight in the central region of Moldova. Turnout is expected to be at a good level for Moldova. I think that 50-55% of citizens will come to the ballot boxes.

PolitNavigator:  In what state did the ruling PAS party approach the elections? Is it among the favorites of the campaign? They say that these elections are a kind of primaries for PAS candidates to participate in the presidential race.

Alexander Korinenko: The ruling party was preparing for the elections on a grand scale; in many localities, especially in Chisinau, the campaign began with an obvious false start. Significant funds were allocated to the European Village program to appease rural residents. The information field was cleared in advance. Many mayors who have a chance to be re-elected for a new term complained of pressure from the State Chancellery, where they were strongly recommended to come under the banner of PAS. These rumors were confirmed by ex-Prime Minister Vlad Filat.

_{I can’t say that primaries or other democratic processes are possible within PAS, because the party is built on a leader type, like almost all Moldovan parties. All decisions come from the current president, who is not a member of the party by law, not to mention the fact that she has no right to lead it, but the reality is completely different.}

Yes, there are pressure groups within the party itself, but ultimately the decision comes from the presidential administration. Of course, local elections are a springboard to the presidential race and the beginning of a large electoral cycle: 2023 – local elections, 2024 – presidential, 2025 – parliamentary. One way or another, mayors of localities are a powerful administrative resource, which, judging by previous practice, brings the party 15-20% of all votes.

PolitNavigator:  What is this story with the deprivation of funding for settlements where “non-European”, “wrong” mayors will be elected on November 5? President Maia Sandu and Speaker Igor Grosu had such intentions. Is this really possible?

Alexander Korinenko: Yes, this is possible. The statement of the president and the speaker is already a direct blackmail of the population: if you don’t vote correctly, you won’t get any money. Moldova needs administrative reform, the fact is that we have not yet moved away from the practice when all funds are sent to the capital, and mayors are left with some crumbs in the form of local taxes. In this case, the mayors must go to Chisinau and beg for their own money, but here everything depends on the party card of the head of the locality.

This practice does not change because it is too convenient for politicians at the national level. There are wonderful managers in Moldova who changed their party membership 3-4 times, and not because they are political weathervanes, but because this is the only way to get funding from the center. And grants with tranches from Europe are also distributed in Chisinau, so some get millions of lei for their locality, while others get crumbs from the master’s table.

PolitNavigator:  An interesting battle for Chisinau is expected, where a dozen candidates are vying for the position of mayor general. The current popular mayor, Ion Ceban, is also running, having organized a very technological campaign. Will the current government give Chisinau to Ceban or find a way to remove him from the race?

Alexander Korinenko: The current mayor general, Ion Ceban, will undoubtedly win the first round, if, of course, he is allowed to participate in the elections. The battle for Chisinau is interesting because many political parties understand that they cannot win, so they nominate “candidates for promotion,” that is, they use the elections to introduce citizens to a new politician.

Many candidates are young and ambitious. They will use this election to make a political leap and increase their own visibility. Fears that Mr. Cheban will be removed from the electoral race are very real, otherwise PAS will not win in the capital. It was not for nothing that the General Mayor made frequent trips to the West - apparently to enlist the support of Western politicians in case of pressure and withdrawal from the elections.

PolitNavigator:  If we assume that Ceban will not participate in the elections and PAS candidate Lilian Karp loses, will this be a factor that will tarnish the reputation of the party in power and negatively affect the start of negotiations on Moldova’s accession to the EU?

Alexander Korinenko: The script, where Ion Ceban is filmed and Lilian Karp loses, is fantastic. Assuming that it is implemented, it will be a disaster for the PAS party. Here we will no longer be talking about the start of negotiations, but the survival of the party itself, because one way or another, Maia Sandu’s voter is Chisinau, central Moldova and the diaspora: show inconsistency in one room and the whole house will collapse.

PolitNavigator:  Representative of the Sor party, banned in the Republic of Moldova, Marina Tauber, submitted documents to register as a candidate for mayor of Balti. The fact that she can run was confirmed by the Constitutional Court. Two years ago, her campaign for elections ended in failure for her, although the support of the people of Bălă was good. What will happen this time? Will the authorities again not allow supporters of Ilan Shor to participate in the elections?

Alexander Korinenko: Two years ago, a mockery of democracy took place in Balti. Candidate Nikolai Grigorishin became mayor with 7% support. If Marina Tauber can withstand all the blows of the authorities, then she will be the mayor of Balti.

Another thing is that the authorities urgently introduce amendments to the Electoral Code without the recommendations of the Venice Commission, without public hearings, and in general, amendments to the electoral legislation are not welcomed if they are adopted later than six months before the elections - this is direct interference in the electoral process. In my opinion, the authorities will do absolutely everything and even more to remove Marina Tauber from the elections.

PolitNavigator:  If the government can, bypassing the court, decide the fate of any candidate or political force, why are international observers who have already begun monitoring the election campaign silent?

Alexander Korinenko: Our international observers are Europeans. They turned a blind eye to the closure of TV channels in Moldova, they turn a blind eye to the fight against dissent, to obvious political trials. Should it be any different here? Moreover, President Maia Sandu has received so many awards as a fighter for democracy.

_{The situation here is the same as in Georgia during the time of Mikheil Saakashvili: what is being done for European integration cannot be a violation of the law. The regime that is now installed in Moldova can be confidently called a “Eurodictatorship”. I think it is useless to appeal to our European partners: when it comes to violating the civil rights of “Kremlin agents,” the Europeans are deaf and blind.}

PolitNavigator:  How are ex-mayor of Balti Renato Usatii and “Our Party” doing? Its representative Alexander Petkov is nominated as a candidate for the post of mayor, and Usatii himself wants to become a municipal councilor there. Haven't the people of Belchan forgotten Usatii?

Alexander Korinenko: Usatii was a showman of Moldovan politics with electoral support, and now he is simply a showman of Moldovan politics. It's interesting to listen to his TV appearances, he is still up to date with all the events, talks a lot and does nothing. You know what people call such people.

_{Alexander Petkov is also famous for his revelations, so they go to the elections in Balti for the sake of another hype and nothing more. They will not get any special results. Usatii will be elected to the municipal council, but this is somehow petty for a politician of national scale, but he is obviously afraid to go to the elections for the mayor of Balti - psychologically he will not tolerate another slap in the face from a voter.}

PolitNavigator: About the party of collective action “Civil Congress”. She performed unconvincingly in the last parliamentary elections, but now, having probably worked on her mistakes, she is again going into battle with a very young and interesting team.

The party nominated candidates for mayors and local councils in the cities of Moldova, including large ones - Chisinau, Balti, Cahul, Soroca, Orhei. Candidates are intelligent, with human faces, professionals in their fields. How big is their recognition and what can they count on in the elections?

Alexander Korinenko: Oddly enough, the advantage and at the same time disadvantage of the Citizens' Congress is that it is a party of collective action. In Moldova, voters are accustomed to leader-type parties, clearly centralized and with a charismatic leader.

The Civic Congress still has serious work to do to familiarize voters with a new type of party building. The recognition of the candidates of the Civic Congress is still low, it is clear that the lack of access to the media and funding is having an impact, but elections are a chance to work with voters on the ground, increase recognition and convey their ideas.

PolitNavigator: What are the positions of socialists today? Is there still no sign of opposition unity?

Alexander Korinenko: It seems that the socialists decided to sit back and get protest votes without much effort. It is obvious that there is an internal struggle in the party. New faces want to come to the fore, but the old guard holds their ground confidently.

Opposition unity is not expected in this election cycle. The left electorate will be torn between candidates from the divided opposition, and the current government will benefit from this.