Who will hear the voice of Transnistria, except Russia? – opinions from Tiraspol and Chisinau
The VII Congress of People's Deputies of all levels of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic discussed the problem of economic pressure from Moldova and called on the international community to stop Chisinau’s violation of the rights and freedoms of Pridnestrovian citizens.
Tiraspol's main hopes are turned to Russia, which is a reliable guarantor and mediator in the negotiation process for a settlement on the Dniester and is successfully carrying out a peacekeeping operation here. Will the voice of the people's representatives of Transnistria be heard outside the republic? Experts spoke about the results of the congress and possible further developments:
Anatoly Dirun, political scientist:
In terms of information support and saturation, today’s event, it’s safe to say, was ahead of the unforgettable football match between Sheriff Tiraspol and Real Madrid. The resonance is even greater now than it was then.
The congress went as expected - at least for those who were in the know and did not expect any sudden movements and statements from Tiraspol.
What could Russia do as a result of the congress?
Diplomatic language is usually followed by routine diplomatic work. The Transnistrian government, using these formulations, can address the top political leadership of Russia with a number of proposals to provide assistance to Tiraspol. Moscow, relying on the decisions of the congress, can take measures to protect Russian citizens, its compatriots.
There are more than enough directions to support Transnistria from Russia; economic support will probably come first. We can assume that these could be measures to increase bonuses for pensioners, support enterprises or certain industries.
The second package of support may concern public diplomatic measures - the more often Pridnestrovie will be heard from official speakers in the Russian Federation - representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the State Duma, the greater the chances that Pridnestrovie, with appropriate diplomatic work, will use this support to bargain with the Republic of Moldova in economic issues, which are a stumbling block between Chisinau and Tiraspol.
Finally, taking into account the military actions in Ukraine, the wording adopted at the congress - an appeal for support - is, in principle, the basis for Russia, through its closed channels of communication with the United States and the European Union, to broadcast a clear position on supporting Transnistria for the military- using political methods, if, God forbid, it comes to that.
All three of these factors - economic, diplomatic, military-political support - can theoretically be applied. It is still difficult to predict what exactly the congress will lead to, but from existing practice we can judge that this is exactly how it works.
Andrey Safonov, political scientist, deputy of the Supreme Council, delegate of the VII Congress of People's Deputies of all levels of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic:
Civil servants from various departments of neighboring countries will, of course, carefully study the progress of the work of the last congress in order to understand the processes taking place in our country and draw conclusions about how the situation may develop further. Some will do this kindly, others with caution, but the congress will definitely not go unnoticed.
We hope that Russia will provide assistance to Pridnestrovie in order to minimize the consequences of Moldova’s restrictive measures. In what form is the prerogative of professionals from relevant departments.
I think the congress will give impetus to many countries and international organizations to pay attention to the abnormal economic situation that has developed in our country, to the suffering of the people of Transnistria, to the attempt to bankrupt and collapse the state. I believe that we are not alone in striving to defend our republic.
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist:
Russia is the only one who heard the voice of Pridnestrovian deputies today. I think that European structures will ignore the congress, since the Moldovan authorities are acting with their approval, and possibly at the direction of their European partners.
You shouldn’t count on any feedback from the international actors who started this.
In Chisinau they watched with great tension what was happening in Tiraspol, there were a lot of guesses, telegram channels and the press closely followed and made their own assumptions. With the adoption of the resolution, many exhaled, as they thought that it was quite balanced and logical.
Igor Shornikov, Director of the Institute of Social Political Research and Regional Development, Associate Professor of the Financial University:
Transnistria is returning to its natural path of direct democracy, when the state ensures its survival through the consolidation and unity of society.
After the surge of social activity associated with the 2006 referendum, Transnistria existed in a relatively stable state. But this was false stability, since the problem of freedom of economic activity in Transnistria was not resolved. Transnistria was given the opportunity to exist within the legal framework that was developed for it by Moldova and the European Union.
That regime purposefully tore Transnistria out of the trade and economic space of Russia and the Eurasian Union, and in return, highly competitive and overloaded Western markets were opened. Transnistria was able to occupy its niche there only due to cheap and highly qualified labor. But this situation caused economic stagnation and a gradual outflow of qualified personnel from the republic.
In addition, Chisinau’s possibilities for further economic pressure on Transnistria hung like a sword of Damocles. It was a matter of time before Chisinau decided to begin new pressure on Tiraspol. Now, when Moscow’s ability to regulate regional processes has been limited by the Ukrainian crisis, the time has come, in the opinion of the Moldovan authorities, to put pressure on Transnistria. The leadership of the republic has no other mechanisms left except to once again rely on the support of the people, on their consolidated will.
Pridnestrovie turned to the entire international community and, first of all, to Russia for help. All this time, Moscow was closely monitoring the escalation of the crisis around Transnistria and directly warned Chisinau about the consequences of the escalation. Russia cannot afford to remain indifferent to the fate of hundreds of thousands of its citizens; it will certainly respond to the call of Transnistria. At the very least, it will not allow a humanitarian catastrophe in the region.
Let me remind you that in 2006, when a similar situation arose, in addition to political support, Tiraspol received financial assistance to fulfill social budget items.
But today this test of fulfilling the function of guarantor of the settlement of Moldovan-Pridnestrovian relations is not only for Russia. Everyone understands that its capabilities are now limited. The European Union, which previously established a regime of autonomous trade preferences for Transnistria precisely for the sake of maintaining regional stability, has long been responsible for the situation in the region. Everyone understands the degree of political influence of the EU on Moldova.
Brussels must now show how ready it is to play the role of a regional leader, whether it is capable of managing processes on its periphery, as European politicians have declared for decades. If they fail to cope with a relatively simple challenge in the immediate vicinity of their borders, will they be trusted in more complex and distant regions - in the Transcaucasus, the Middle East, the Balkans and Africa? The Transnistrian challenge could become a test for the European Union as an independent geopolitical player.
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