Where will Armenia turn after the resignation of the president?
The new president of Armenia will be a figure loyal to the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with PolitNavigator by political experts Hayk Khalatyan and Mariyam Hovsepyan, assessing the internal political processes in the republic.
On Sunday, January 23, Armenian President Armen Sarkissian announced his resignation. He cited the lack of necessary powers as the main reason, which does not allow the head of state to influence the fundamental processes of foreign and domestic policy. According to the constitution, early elections for the President of the Republic are held no earlier than 25 and no later than 35 days after the opening of a vacancy.
What caused the sudden resignation of Armenian President Armen Sarkissian?
Hayk Khalatyan.
OH. At this stage, two main versions are being announced. First, the president did not want to be part of the process, the result of which would be a shameful agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey, and did not want to participate in it. The second is a publication in the media that he was elected to the post of president in violation of the law and that he had two citizenships. Therefore, he resigned from his post and left Armenia, so as not to be subject to criminal prosecution for this violation of the law.
Mariyam Hovsepyan.
M.O. I wouldn't say that this decision was unexpected. Armen Sarkissian remained from the former authorities and tried to be a compromise figure in the interaction between the prime minister and the opposition blocs. What came as a surprise was that Sargsyan announced his resignation on Sunday evening rather than on a weekday.
Reputable analysts say that Sargsyan’s resignation may be related to upcoming changes in relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. How true is this version, in your opinion?
OH. As I already noted, this is one of two main versions. The president is an intelligent, calculating person, and, naturally, it seems to me that he has some plans for the political future, or he simply does not want to remain in the history of the Armenian people as a person who was involved in this shameful agreement, to which Pashinyan is now leading Armenia, who wants through significant and shameful concessions on the Armenian side, normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
M.O. Everything is leading up to this. They are trying to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. I often visit different regions of Armenia. Communicating with people, I understand that even if it was possible to normalize relations before the war or establish peace in the region, after the war it is much more difficult. This is one of the versions associated with the resignation of the president. Sargsyan did not want to take on such responsibility.
Nikol Pashinyan.
Who can become Sargsyan’s successor, having received the support of the parliamentary majority of Pashinyan’s party. Will the Armenian prime minister try to take all power in the country into his own hands?
OH. Armenia is a parliamentary republic, so the prime minister has the broadest powers, and the post of president is symbolic. He doesn't even have the right of veto. Compared to other parliamentary republics, the Armenian president has minimal powers. The prime minister already has all the power in his hands.
In any case, the president will be a person completely loyal to Pashinyan. A specific candidate is not being announced now; there are a lot of possible candidates, because no one knows who exactly the current government will choose.
M.O. A compromise figure with whom both the prime minister and the opposition can work. A person who can lead Armenia out of the national crisis. But this option, in my opinion, is unlikely. I think that, most likely, Pashinyan will receive full power, and then opposition demarches will begin, since with each appointment of a prime minister (from his team), questions and protests arise from the opposition.
The leader of the Bright Armenia party, Edmon Marukyan, who is mentioned in the Armenian media as a possible candidate for the presidency, has repeatedly stated that he has always lobbied for good relations between Armenia and Russia. What are the chances of improving and deepening Armenian-Russian relations, given Pashinyan’s permanently growing sympathy for the West?
OH. Firstly, Edmon Marukyan is the same pro-Western politician as Pashinyan himself. All his life he advocated Armenia’s participation in the European integration process and was critical of the EAEU, CSTO, and so on. And secondly, as I already noted, the position of the president in the country is symbolic, and he is not able to influence the politics of Armenia.
M.O. I know him personally, but I don’t see any prospects. Armenia has become somewhat unpredictable for political scientists, because it is difficult to predict the development of events. Now many are trying to promote themselves in the media, to put forward their candidacy - supposedly they are suitable for the role of president.
I don’t remember him lobbying for Russian-Armenian relations; on the contrary, he represented the interests of the West more. Today, the most pro-Russian government is the current one, because it does not interfere with common decisions. Despite Pashinyan’s sympathies for the West, he still pursues a pro-Russian policy.
To what extent will the West try to influence the presidential elections in Armenia in order to bring to power a person who will pursue an anti-Russian policy?
OH. The figure of the president in Armenia cannot have any influence on real foreign policy processes. Therefore, it does not matter who takes the presidency. What is more important is what course Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will pursue.
M.O. I completely deny it. Today we considered possible candidates who are as anti-Russian as possible, but at the same time they do not pursue an ardent anti-Russian policy.
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