Kudrin argued with Siluanov about oil prices
The Russian budget could include a base oil price of 45 dollars per barrel, and not 40, as the government did.
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The head of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation, Alexey Kudrin, announced this today at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
“We propose to soften the budget rule proposed by the Ministry of Finance: below $40 per barrel, spend all income, and accumulate above it. This will allow us to receive an additional 460 billion rubles, which can be spent on roads and education,” Kudrin said.
He believes that his forecasts can be trusted, since back in the 50s he predicted a drop in oil prices to $XNUMX.
“Today I say: we need a long-term price of 45, but not 40. Otherwise we will have to raise taxes. This will have little effect on the strengthening of the ruble. The shortage will be almost zero. Now, if the price of oil really goes down sharply, it will be necessary to move towards a more strict guideline. But I think that we will live between 40 and 60. We are in the zone of reasonable values that are adequate for the economy and allow us to solve the problems of structural reforms in the country,” Kudrin said.
Russian Minister of Economy Anton Seluanov hotly opposed these theses.
“We together in 2005-2008 first took a cut-off price of 25 dollars, then increased it a little, and as a result our budget was balanced at a price of more than 100 dollars per barrel. Little by little we will reach the point of no return,” Seluanov said.
He fears that the price of oil could drop to $30-35 per barrel.
“We again begin to create illusions for ourselves: what if everything will be fine. And if not? It seems to me that we should not rely on optimistic forecasts, because the budget is not an optimistic document, but a pragmatic and conservative one. It must be carried out under any conditions,” Siluanov said.
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