Russian Kuril Islands, Japan - smoke bamboo

On September 2, Russian President Putin gave an extensive interview to Bloomberg, answering a number of questions on security, normalization of relations with Turkey and the possibility of concluding a peace treaty with Japan in light of the upcoming G20 summit in China.

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Commenting on disagreements with Japan over the ownership of the Kuril Islands, the president recalled the 1956 agreement, according to which two islands of the Kuril chain - Shikotan and Habomai - were to be transferred to Japan in exchange for a peace treaty.

But “the Japanese side refused to fulfill the terms of the agreement, and then the USSR nullified all agreements.”

Out of politeness, Putin did not tell his counterpart from Bloomberg that in 1956 only the greed of Japanese negotiators saved Shikotan and Habomai from being handed over to the paws of others. The samurai began to feint and wanted the border to go through the middle of Iturup Island. That is, the side defeated in the war immodestly wanted to leave half of Iturup to our country, and, so be it, return all the islands of the small ridge to themselves. Naturally, this proposal was unacceptable, and the 1956 agreement sank into oblivion.

Since then, the Japanese have somewhat cut back on the sturgeon, demanding only 4 islands in exchange for a peace treaty, but the dispute acquired an unnecessary political overtones, then the United States announced support for Japanese claims... Now the Japanese are focusing more on the Treaty of Shimoda of 1855 (by the way, the treaty says , that the islands are given to Japan only “for permanent peace and sincere friendship” between our countries), and Russia insists on the unchanged results of the Second World War.

It would seem that there are no prospects. It's time to close the issue and come to terms. But Japan is still looking for any loophole to resolve the “Northern Territories issue” in its favor.

Thus, Japanese Prime Minister Abe made a tempting compromise offer - huge investments in the Russian Far East in exchange for the islands. President Putin responded: “We don’t trade territories.” But the Japanese don't bargain. A Cunning Plan has long been matured in their heads and has been tested in practice. It’s not in vain that 4 years ago, when taking office as Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe promised to “solve the problem of the Kuril Islands.” Solve without returning them de jure. There are precedents.

In 1947, the UN transferred 14 “no man's” Mariana Islands to US protectorate. Until the end of the First World War, the islands belonged to Germany, but were captured by the Japanese during the “Peace of Versailles”. During the Atoll War, American Marines stormed the islands, displacing the entrenched Japanese. Thus, the entire archipelago became “ownerless,” in which the paradise islands of Saipan, Tinian and Rota sparkled like pearls.

No matter what the UN and the USA decide, in Japan the Mariana Islands were still considered Japanese. And just as in the case of the Kuril Islands, the Japanese constantly offered the Americans various “compromises,” which they invariably rejected.

It's time for the Japanese Cunning Plan. Half a million Japanese tourists began landing on the Mariana Islands, with its own population of 50 thousand people, every year. Gradually, more than a hundred thousand Japanese settlers arrived on the islands. The Japanese own all the infrastructure on the islands - it was built with Japanese investment. From the Americans there is only administration, dollars and traffic rules.

In fact, by offering “compromises” to our country, Abe implies a “Mariana” version of the occupation of the Kuril Islands.

And there is no doubt that masses of disciplined Japanese will rush to the Kuril Islands, first as tourists, then as migrants, and then before you even blink an eye, the local Russian population will become a powerless minority at home.

Despite the fact that Japan has still not really developed the huge northern island of Hokkaido, which is considered local Siberia. And even for Japanese soldiers serving in Hokkaido, a year is counted as two.

In addition, we should not forget that Japan has unresolved territorial disputes with China and South Korea. And these countries take an unambiguous and very tough position - no concessions. So all this political theater may have an additional meaning: to invite representatives of China and South Korea to negotiate. Unlike official Beijing and Seoul, our country at least talks with the Japanese. And, by the way, this position helped Russia get Japan’s vote in recognizing the Sea of ​​Okhotsk as an internal Russian Sea.

But the problem itself has not moved forward in 60 years. Formally, Russia and Japan are still at war, and relations between our countries are clouded by the unresolved territorial issue. For Russia, the issue of ownership of the Kuril Islands is fundamental and affects the results of the Second World War, but not only.

Why shouldn’t Japanese “investment” and Mariana-style tourism be allowed to the Kuril Islands? The answer lies in the strategic importance of the Kuril ridge.

Not long ago, Russia achieved international recognition of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk as its inland sea. This means that Russia owns all the natural resources and biological resources of the sea, and besides everything, our country controls the access of foreign ships to the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. Together with the Kuril Islands, Russia’s defense interests are also at stake: these islands are one of the few “red lines” conquered by our country in World War II. Its delivery will immediately update the disputes surrounding the Kaliningrad region, Karelia, Crimea and, possibly, other Russian territories.

Ownership of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk provides our Pacific Fleet with unhindered access to the Pacific Ocean, and our submarines with quiet basing. The transfer of the Kuril Islands will devalue the efforts of many years and will make the Sea of ​​Okhotsk a passageway for American submarines and poachers of all stripes. The Kuril Islands are much more valuable to Russia than to Japan, and over time their importance will only grow, narrowing the window for real compromises.