The dollar exchange rate may fall below 40 rubles
Massive capital outflow from Russia helped maintain a high dollar exchange rate, but now this process has stopped.
First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sovcombank PJSC Sergei Khotimsky stated this today at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“A surplus economy should not generate such high inflation and high interest rates. Our traditional high inflation was associated with the country management model, when we export fairly simple things and at the same time maintain a normal exchange rate by taking money out of the country in every possible way.
At the government level - in the National Welfare Fund, the Central Bank did this, enterprises and corporations, oligarchs, and any person wanted a house in Bulgaria. That is, export-export-export,” the financier noted.
Now we will be in a situation where all this will be difficult. There is no way to sterilize this huge foreign exchange surplus. We will have to adjust to a situation in which exports and imports are closer to each other.
Given that imports are limited, this is a very difficult transition. I don’t yet have enough imagination to imagine how a rate of 70-90 can exist at a rate of 5%. We'll have to fall even lower. I think that we are facing a period of very low ruble rates so that we do not see the rate below 40,” Khotimsky said.
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