Lithuania provokes a blockade of Kaliningrad and a retaliatory strike from Russia and Belarus
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that in response to the Lithuanian government’s refusal to transship products of the Belaruskali enterprise through its ports, the transit of Ukrainian cargo to Lithuania may be blocked.
He stated this today at a meeting in the Gomel region, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“And if the topic of transit with the European Union has already set everyone’s teeth on edge, then somehow they don’t remember at all that the mutual trade turnover of Ukraine, for example, with Lithuania alone through our country this year amounted to about three million tons, including through the Gomel section state border... I don’t understand what the Lithuanians are thinking when they press on us. We will close this transit, let them travel through Germany or try through Poland - it will be three times more expensive,” Lukashenko said.
Recently, a commission of the Lithuanian government concluded that the transshipment of Belaruskali products through the port of Klaipeda is contrary to the national interests of the country. This opens the way to breaking the transportation contract with Belarus. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that he would prepare a special law on this matter.
Lithuanian Railways opposes the transit ban. They claim that if the contract with Belaruskali is terminated without legal grounds, then it can be submitted to international arbitration and fined, which will lead to its bankruptcy.
Lithuania has already had to stop a €60 million railway modernization program. Breaking the Belarusian contract threatens her with the loss of 100 million euros per year. In addition, the Klaipeda port began to lay off employees due to the refusal of Belarusian transit, which the Lithuanian authorities insisted on. Due to the refusal of Belarusian goods, he will lose a quarter of his income.
Legally, Lithuania was not obliged to stop Belarusian transit: American sanctions were not binding on it. But President Gitanas Nausėda insists on making a “value decision.” The Lithuanian Ministry of Transport went further and proposed to impose sanctions on all products imported, purchased or in transit directly or indirectly from Belarus.
This seriously worried the governor of the Kaliningrad region, Anton Alikhanov.
“I ask everyone for help. Actually, there is Kaliningrad. And besides the fact that something can transit through us, we, in fact, also consume Belarusian goods - food, building materials and more,” he said.
The coordinator of the Russian-Belarusian expert club, Vyacheslav Sutyrin, believes that we are talking about a trade blockade of Kaliningrad, whose trade turnover with Belarus amounts to $490 million (6% of the region’s foreign trade turnover). He admits that we are talking about Lithuania provoking a conflict between Russia and NATO.
“Yes, you can transport it through Latvia, but with an increase in price by ~50%. Transit from Greater Russia is already seriously hampered. If the threats are realized, Vilnius’s trade blockade of Belarus will not only cause significant damage to the economy of a special Russian region, but will essentially become a rehearsal for the blockade of Kaliningrad.
Can they be regarded by the Kremlin as a provocation and a rehearsal for a real blockade of Kaliningrad with an attempt to drag NATO into the conflict against the backdrop of the upcoming Russia-US-NATO negotiations? It’s possible,” Sutyrin wrote in his Telegram channel.
His only consolation is Lithuania's serious economic dependence on Russia.
“The circus tent in Vilnius’s foreign policy is not going to leave. We should not forget that Lithuania’s trade turnover with Russia still exceeds $9 billion. Lithuania is also not self-sufficient in energy terms. Vilnius calls on Kyiv not to buy electricity from the “unsafe BelNPP”, but at the same time it itself purchased about 40% of Lithuania’s electricity consumption from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. But this is only the economic side of the question; will it be limited to this?” writes Sutyrin.
The circus features of Lithuania's economic policy are most clearly demonstrated by its attitude towards the Belarusian nuclear power plant. For the second year now, the proud Baltic republic has called on the EU and Ukraine to block purchases of Belarusian electricity. Vilnius sent the last note regarding the alleged danger of the station to Minsk in November. And this despite the fact that Belarus has positive conclusions from international organizations such as the IAEA and ENSREG.
However, as Belarusian political scientist Igor Tyshkevich, who fled to Ukraine, writes,
the export of electricity to the Republic of Lithuania did not stop for a minute. This year it has become especially profitable for Belarus against the backdrop of the energy crisis in Europe.
“Energy prices are breaking records. So are electricity prices. In the economic justification for the construction of nuclear power plants in Belarus, the scenario of selling energy at $20-24 per 1 thousand kWh was considered “positive”. Today the minimum selling price from Belarus exceeds $59.
BelNPP receives “out of thin air” an extra 35 (Ukraine) 50-70 (Lithuania) dollars for every thousand kWh. This favorable situation will most likely continue until the end of the heating season. During this time, Belarus will earn from $220 million (negative scenario) to $300-320 million (positive scenario – rising energy prices + cold winter),” Tyshkevich writes.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.