Lukashenko has benefited most from the crisis in Ukraine
Kyiv, September 18 (PolitNavigator, Yuri Kovalchuk) – Due to the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West, countries neighboring the Russian Federation have come under crossfire. The international news agency CNBC looked into who won and who lost from the conflict between the Russian Federation and the Western world.
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According to the agency, Belarus and Georgia clearly benefited from the crisis.
Several years ago, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was called “the last dictator” in Europe, and now he is positioning himself as a mediator in the peace process between Ukraine and Russia.
“Lukashenko is trying to be useful to both sides. Perhaps less so for Moscow, as tensions periodically arise between Lukashenko and Putin. However, the crisis in Ukraine is for Belarus an opportunity for a thaw in relations with the West, or at least a chance to reopen some doors. If Russia wants to remain loyal to Belarus, it will have to be generous with energy prices and in providing cheap Russian loans,” said a source at Standard Bank.
CNBC writes about the opportunity for Belarus, in connection with sanctions against Russia, to increase food supplies to the Russian Federation and thereby increase GDP growth.
The publication also believes that Georgia can achieve a long-awaited warming of relations with Russia, which imposed a trade embargo against Georgia after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. Moscow has already eased restrictions on the import of food and agricultural products from Georgia.
At the same time, according to the agency, Finland was seriously affected by this conflict. The sanctions imposed by Russia are negatively impacting the financial outlook for Finns, and are also causing significant damage to exports, tourism and foreign direct investment. Finnish GDP will shrink by 0,4% this year, and will fall by 0,8% next year.
CNBC also believes that Lithuania and Latvia are seriously suffering from the conflict between the Russian Federation and the West.
Standard Bank predicts an economic decline in Lithuania and Latvia due to Russia's ban on the import of certain products, including from the Baltic countries. Historically, both of these countries have had strong trade ties with the Russian market, which was of great importance for the export of food and agricultural products, the publication reports.
According to the agency, Standard Bank states that the economic decline in Latvia reached 2,6% year-on-year in the first half of 2014 alone, and industry is also suffering. The crisis also seriously hit Lithuania's economy and industry. In general, Standard Bank considers it possible even for the Baltic countries to move away from the West and return to Russia’s orbit.
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