Has Lukashenko agreed with Putin on a referendum or nothing?
The outcome of Alexander Lukashenko’s trip to Sochi and his many hours of negotiations with Vladimir Putin is becoming the subject of debate among experts. Some saw in the final press statement a hint of a referendum on the reunification of Russia and Belarus. Others say the two leaders have again failed to agree on anything.
As you know, the most painful issue in the negotiations is what Belarus is ready to offer Russia in exchange for compensation for losses from the termination of preferential oil supplies. Until recently, Minsk processed Russian “black gold” at its refineries and resold it at a profit as fuel, including to the Ukrainian army.
However, today Lukashenko, speaking to reporters with Putin, said that the issue of the so-called “tax maneuver” (as a result of which Minsk lost benefits) was not discussed.
Previously, the press claimed that Russia had reduced its financial support for Belarus for a reason. So Moscow allegedly sought concessions from Minsk - the transfer of defense factories, permission to place military bases, or, according to the most radical version, consent to reunification into a truly unified state (which would give Putin, for example, the opportunity to rule in new terms in a new status).
However, Lukashenko, as is known, previously categorically rejected the idea of loss of independence. Similar rhetoric was heard today.
“Why do we need to raise issues of sovereignty of Belarus and Russia? This is an icon, this is sacred, we don’t have a problem of sovereignty (in relations between the two countries. – approx.). We don’t even discuss these problems in this context... Are you ready to give up or bargain with sovereignty today?” – Lukashenko said to the journalist who asked the corresponding question.
However, the dad then voiced words that some observers hastened to interpret as readiness to hold a referendum on reunification with Russia - they say, everything depends on the will of ordinary citizens.
“The two of us can unite tomorrow too. We have no problems. But are you (Russians and Belarusians) ready for this? The question is. Therefore, you need to address the question to yourself. As far as you are ready, we will carry out your will. And if you are not ready, no matter how powerful and huge Russia is, today it is not able to impose will on anyone,” Lukashenko said.
However, Belarusian political observer Artem Shraibman does not see anything new in this passage from Lukashenko - similar theses have been heard from the mouth of the President of the Republic of Belarus before.
Based on this, Shreibman considers the negotiations between Lukashenko and Putin to be fruitless.
“We didn’t discuss the tax maneuver (in translation - we didn’t agree, there’s nothing to discuss, the positions have been clear for a long time). Apparently, the issue is close to burying him and accepting the losses. Or already buried. Which would be logical after 4 consecutive fruitless meetings.
“We don’t trade sovereignty” + the old thesis about “we are as ready as you are” + “we agreed to analyze” how to develop integration from below, starting with the humanitarian sphere.
In translation - as at the end of December, we agreed to talk. The working group will face years of official correspondence until they are forgotten as unnecessary.
Something else will probably come up in the end. Lukashenko promised information. security to discuss. I doubt that there will be any breakthroughs or even new joint bodies - otherwise they would have reported immediately. To communicate with the press, they needed at least some concrete results and did not find them.
Good trip. Skiing, tea with the Turkish and Iranian presidents, a youth center were shown,” the expert summed up.
Lukashenko himself promises to give a big press conference after returning to Minsk.
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