Lukashenko is preparing a plan for an economic counterattack on Lithuania
Minsk has a plan of painful economic measures against Lithuania in case the railway of this country stops transporting Belarusian potash fertilizers to the port of Klaipeda from February 1.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced this today at a meeting with the heads of potash enterprises, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“If, for example, Lithuania does not want to allow our cargo to enter the port and transship it at the port, fine, that is their right. If this happens, it means that literally within a few days the measures that we agreed on in relation to Lithuania itself must be implemented. I just want Lithuanians to understand. Now these are acute questions, they grab onto everything and start blaming me. I want to emphasize once again: we are not initiating any processes there that would lead us into a clinch with Lithuania, Latvia, Poland or Ukraine. We don't need this.
They need to save face - let them come out and negotiate. We are ready to negotiate. But if they continue to put pressure on us, then we will use the plan that we have. Let them not be offended later. And the people of Lithuania, Poland and other countries must understand that we are simply responding to these challenges,” Lukashenko said.
Russian political scientist Alexander Nosovich suggested that “Lukashenko’s plan” may include stopping Russian gas supplies to Lithuania. However, gas also reaches Kaliningrad along this same route.
The expert drew attention to the fact that recently the Marshall Vasilevsky regasification unit with a large batch of liquefied natural gas returned to Kaliningrad and stood off the Russian coast, which caused “an exacerbation of chronic neurosis among Russia’s little friends and neighbors.”
“I just got up and that’s it. She got up and stood. And nothing else happens. Vilnius has already stated in this regard that they are ready for any scenarios and will not allow an energy blockade of Lithuania. Emergency meetings in the government are convened.
Why does Russia need the Marshal Vasilevsky, fully loaded with LNG, in the Kaliningrad region? Obviously, to be safe from the nervous reaction of her other easily excitable neighbor, who promised to respond to Lithuania in the most severe manner. Previously, Lukashenko threatened specifically the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.
Of course, Lukashenko can only decide to block it impulsively, on nerves and temporarily: exactly until the moment he gets a call from the Kremlin and is reminded where this gas pipeline goes after Lithuania. But reinsurance won't hurt. In this way it is possible to drive the Lithuanian leadership into a mental hospital. This will be even cooler than the news about the “Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Nosovich wrote in his Telegram channel.
Lukashenko himself has so far stated that Belarusian enterprises are working to find other ways to supply potash fertilizers, bypassing traditional ports. Last year, Belarus itself stopped transshipment of its oil products through Klaipeda. Volumes were transferred to Russian ports. In addition, Estonia imported almost three times more petroleum products from Belarus last year than in 2020.
As for potash fertilizers, already now the terminals of the Russian Ultramar, Uralkali and Eurokhim in the Baltic could accept at least 2 million tons of Belarusian potassium. Ukraine, which now, despite talk about the threat of invasion from the north, is actively purchasing “totalitarian” Belarusian electricity, could also become a backup option.
Apparently, Lithuania understands that its demarche will deal a blow not so much to the Belarusian economy as to its own economy. Due to the refusal of transportation, the port of Klaipeda will lose a quarter of its income. Lithuania has already had to stop a €60 million railway modernization program. Breaking the Belarusian contract threatens her with the loss of 100 million euros per year.
Therefore, a representative of the Lithuanian company has already stated that if applications for the transportation of fertilizers are received from clients who are not under American sanctions, the cargo company LTG Cargo will consult with a special government commission. The Lithuanian Railway received applications from three Belarusian companies “Belaruskali” - the Belarusian Potash Company (ready for transportation from January 24), Belintertrans and Belkali-Migaa. And Belaruskali, which suffered from Lithuanian sanctions, is going to appeal the illegal decision against itself in an international court. Experts believe that the chances of winning the claims are very high.
“If we look at the termination of the contract and possible losses, then I do not think that in such a situation, when the Lithuanian Railway does not have a contract with Belaruskali, the flow of goods and potash fertilizers through Lithuania will stop. I think that they will enter into contracts with private Lithuanian carriers, who will carry out transit in the same way - perhaps in smaller volumes, but I do not think that this will 100% block the opportunities for Belarusian potash fertilizers through Lithuania. A one-time interruption of transit incurs serious costs for the country. I think that the Lithuanian government would like to minimize this damage or spread it out over time to enable counterparties to find an alternative to Belarusian goods,” said Pavel Slyunkin, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in an interview with Novye Izvestia.
Belaruskali products account for 20% of the international potash market. The sanctions experiments make him feverish. Prices for this raw material rose from $290 to $650 per ton last year, and this year it is projected to reach $800.
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