Lukashenko is preparing to leave
Friday morning in Belarus did not foretell any sensations. At the beginning of the working day, Lukashenko, apparently deciding to relieve tension in society regarding the second wave of coronavirus and demonstrate the concern of “Father” for the “people,” went straight to the “red zone” of one of the Minsk hospitals. It turned out controversial - the president got carried away, assumed the role of “chief virologist” and began teaching the doctors of the covid department how to treat coronavirus. As usual, he came up with an extraordinary method of treatment, proposing to start treatment with the psyche. Of course, in another country this would have become a sensation and scandal, but Belarusians are already used to it - talk about “coronapsychosis” and similar “author’s recipes” for treatment have already become Lukashenko’s “trademark style”.
The real sensation happened a little later, when the president, in the assembly hall of the same hospital, spoke about constitutional reform and bluntly stated the following: “I am not making any Constitution for myself. With the new Constitution, I will no longer work with you as president».
But Belarusians are not yet accustomed to this. Of course, Lukashenko regularly, especially shortly before elections, says that he is already tired of power, cannot hold on to it with blue fingers, etc. But all this does not prevent him from regularly running for office every 5 years. On Friday, for the first time, he announced not only his intention to leave his post, but also the specific circumstances under which he would do so.
Moreover, these circumstances are not so distant - preparations for the constitutional reform have already been launched and, although they are trying to delay it, it is clear that the time until the adoption of the new Constitution is counted in months. It turns out that Lukashenko has come to terms with his imminent departure and next year Belarus will have a new president? Of course, anything can happen, and the Belarusian president may well forget about his words, but this time everything seems quite serious.
It is curious that the day before this sensational statement, the head of the Belarusian state met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, where he not only conveyed “greetings from Vladimir Vladimirovich” to him, but also hinted at the agreements reached in Sochi and “very useful for Belarusian society “initiatives of Lukashenko himself.
These initiatives, as you might guess, meant a plan to adopt a new Constitution and early presidential elections. Lukashenko himself spoke about this when in August he urgently needed to reassure society with a plan for overcoming the political crisis. Apparently, he promised the same to Putin in September in Sochi. Many believe that another of the promises made to Putin at that time was the resignation of Lukashenko himself from the presidential post.
Be that as it may, you don’t need to be a great psychologist or specialist in non-verbal signals to see: at the meeting between Lavrov and Lukashenko, the advantage was clearly on the side of the former. The Belarusian president looked clearly depressed.
Whether Lukashenko’s statement is connected with his meeting with Lavrov is not known for certain, but the coincidence is very significant. Just two weeks ago, Lukashenko, who had recovered from the first post-election shocks and felt his former strength, said that there would be no transition of power - and here is such a turn!
There are now two competing strategies for resolving the Belarusian political crisis. The Western strategy is revolutionary and provides for an unconstitutional and, possibly, forceful seizure of power by its proteges, based on the crowd’s dissatisfaction with repression and Lukashenko’s eccentricities.
The Russian one provides for political reform, slower and calmer, without leaving the legal field.
Maintaining the status quo does not suit either side. Of course, the Western strategy does not bring anything particularly good to Belarusians, and as for the Russian one, the problematic link here is the unpredictability of Lukashenko himself. Now, it seems, they managed to convince him not to break wood and go for a transit of power, but in his case no one can give any guarantees.
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