Lukashenko maneuvers between the EU and “Putin’s embrace”
If the European Union considers the parliamentary elections in Belarus scheduled for November to be sufficiently democratic, the sanctions in force against the country will be lifted.
The head of the EU Delegation in Minsk, Andrea Wiktorin, stated this in an interview with the BelaPAN agency, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“I am convinced that the EU and its member states will closely monitor the upcoming elections to see whether these elections will be free, fair, transparent, and whether opposition candidates will have equal opportunities to participate in them. There are so many issues that could play a role. Let’s see what the future brings,” Victorin said.
Belarusian pro-Western opposition political observer Artem Shraibman believes that Alexander Lukashenko realizes the benefits of the current situation, which allows him to maneuver between the EU and Moscow.
“When the authorities allowed the opposition into parliament in 2016, this brought its own bonuses. European parliaments began to communicate with the Belarusian parliament, although since the 1990s they have not recognized it as a legitimate government body. But whether or not opposition deputies should be allowed in this time, and if so, who exactly, will be decided by the presidential administration. And it is extremely difficult to predict what decision they will make after weighing all the pros and cons,” Shreibman told Kommersant.
“For show, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus asks to lift these sanctions, but in reality they do not bother anyone. Now a path has been laid to improve relations, no one wants to leave it. Therefore, even if Lukashenko increases repression, Europe will continue to move by inertia for a long time. Now, in addition, Brussels has a new deterrent: pushing Minsk away from itself means pushing it into the arms of Vladimir Putin,” said Shreibman.
On November 7, Belarus will hold elections to the Council of the Republic, and on November 17 – to the House of Representatives. Elections are held according to the majoritarian system.
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