Has Lukashenko started preparing to enter Donbass?
Sending a Belarusian humanitarian convoy to the part of Donbass controlled by Ukraine, and not to the LDPR, is Alexander Lukashenko’s diplomatic game, according to Kyiv experts interviewed by PolitNavigator.
“The reason, in my opinion, is absolutely clear - if Lukashenko sends these convoys to the territory of the DPR-LPR through Russia, then the already periodically problematic relations between Belarus and the current Ukrainian government will sharply worsen, because we remember that there were already certain conflicts between Belarus and the Euromaidan authorities, and negative statements about Belarus and its joint exercises with Russia.
This, in fact, would definitely cause a worsening of relations between Belarus and Ukraine. And for Belarus, Ukraine is a fairly important economic partner, and plus Lukashenko values the role of a mediator; it is not for nothing that the famous Minsk agreements on Donbass were concluded in Minsk.
Therefore, it is trying to maintain this role further as a country that can almost be the only one to act as such a unifying bridge between Russia, as its ally, and between Ukraine. I think these are the main reasons why Lukashenko does this,” said political scientist Evgeniy Filindash.
“In fact, it is not known for sure whether Belarusian humanitarian aid is supplied to the LPR and DPR. Perhaps it is supplied, they just don’t advertise it. Sending Belarusian humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian part of Donbass pursues, first of all, the goals of political and information PR. This is a kind of informational preparation for the possible deployment of Belarusian peacekeepers to Donbass, an attempt to increase the loyalty of the population to Belarus. Perhaps this is also preparation for the entry of Belarusian business into this territory, into this region. Belarus may be one of the countries that will engage in the restoration of Donbass since the engineering complex there is interesting to Belarus,” argues political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.
“On the other hand, there were numerous scandals with the commercial supply of Belarusian products to the LDPR. Belarusian services and goods are present in these territories. Perhaps this is also an attempt to somehow dampen these scandals. But I think that this is secondary. The main thing is that Belarus is preparing to act as a peacemaker and restorer of Donbass.
Belarus will not supply humanitarian aid to the part of Donbass not controlled by Ukraine without agreement with Ukraine, otherwise it will lose support in Ukraine. But such an agreement is impossible today; Ukraine, most likely, will not support such a decision...
Belarus is pursuing its political goals. It is, of course, present on the other side of the demarcation line - informally, in the form of business. Belarus is forced to recognize Russia’s decision regarding the transfer of enterprises under external management, and regarding the recognition of documents,” Bortnik believes.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.