Lukashenko will not be able to maintain power through constitutional reform - expert
The constitutional reform initiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will not solve his problem of maintaining personal power.
Opposition Belarusian political scientist Artem Shraibman wrote about this in his Telegram channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“He will not have enough ratings and resources to keep a more complex configuration of the regime than it is now from spreading to the sides.
Any, even initially decorative, division of powers or his transfer to a non-presidential post will create a situation of dormant dual power, where a successor or a new party in power will try to build away from Lukashenko, so as not to take on his unpopularity or solve the problems of economic and international isolation.
Such distancing will lead to conflict, but Lukashenko will hardly have the opportunity to stuff the paste back into the tube,” Shraibman wrote.
He believes that a more reliable path for Lukashenko would be to transfer power to a successor under guarantees for himself and his loved ones.
“But for various reasons, first of all, because of the denial of electoral reality, Lukashenko is not ready to agree to this, because it is humiliating,” summarizes Shreibman.
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