Belarus: rallies for Lukashenko are being blown away, not Belomaidan

Belarus has been holding rallies for three weeks now. And, despite the fact that a habit of protests is already developing, and they are no longer perceived as something out of the ordinary, tension in Belarusian society does not decrease, and the parties even continue to raise the stakes.

The expectation of a general strike, in general, did not materialize. Strikes continue, but locally they don’t make a difference in society. Therefore, the protests were included in the weekly schedule. During the work week, protesters are more likely to make their presence known on the streets, and on Sundays they organize truly large rallies.

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There is no need to say that the protests are “deflated”. Rather, pro-Lukashenko rallies are being blown away. Lukashenko’s ideological supporters are not used to being politically active on their own, and bringing tens of thousands of state employees to regular pro-government actions is fraught with an even greater weakening of the authority’s authority.

As for opposition rallies, gathering a crowd of 24 for the third week in a row without any administrative resources and in conditions when you are “wetted” by the full power of state propaganda XNUMX hours a day is a very serious position that is difficult to attribute solely to foreign “puppeteers” and the fifth column . The mass scale of protests has been maintained at a record level for Belarus for quite some time.

The third protest Sunday, fortunately, did not become bloody, although it could have become. This time the parties raised the stakes once again. The protesters took even greater risks, and not only came close to the security forces cordoning off the presidential palace, but also stood at a minimum distance for quite a long time until they left due to heavy rain.

The authorities, despite the absence of a serious threat of assault, staged a show of even greater force. Now 7 army tracked BTR-2 armored personnel carriers were also deployed to defend the Palace of Independence, and Lukashenko himself once again could not resist posing with a machine gun, which is questionable from a reputational point of view. Since the protesters have not demonstrated any aggression for a long time, in order to maintain the propaganda effect, he needs to create the appearance of danger by increasingly large-scale measures to protect against this danger.

It is clear that if there is no movement towards a compromise, the protests will repeat again next week with approximately the same intensity. Lukashenko still has room for a show of force here. It is quite possible to drive tanks into the square in front of the Palace of Independence, launch combat helicopters over the heads of the protesters, and take a photo with a light machine gun, but in Belarusian conditions this would be completely grotesque. As for the protesters, there is little scope for them to further raise the stakes, without the completely unacceptable risk of sliding into mass slaughter.

But it is not all that bad. The ending of Sunday's standing near the Palace of Independence was optimistic. Lukashenko’s assistant Nikolai Latyshonok came out to the protesters and entered into dialogue with them. This was the first time that an official of this level, close to the Belarusian president, directly communicated with protest participants..

Now the opposition media are criticizing this exit, but in vain. The official did not have the task of being diplomatic and pleasing someone. And the other side was also not very diplomatic. His task was to come out and voice the position of the authorities on the conditions for starting a dialogue. And, although those same opposition media chose not to notice this, in a short speech these 4 conditions of dialogue sounded quite clearly:

– Lukashenko’s victory in the elections is not discussed;

– The Coordination Council is not recognized and is not considered as a party to the negotiations;

– it is possible for representatives of initiative groups that nominated presidential candidates to participate in negotiations;

– the subject of negotiations may be constitutional reform.

In principle, not the worst conditions. Initiative groups of candidates, although they lost their legal status after the elections, are backed by at least 100 thousand people who supported the presidential nomination and a certain number of votes received in the elections. If we’re going to negotiate, it’s with them, and not with an incomprehensible body, the composition and order of formation of which is not exactly known. Participation in dialogue on the new Constitution means transferring the conflict into the legal field.

It is clear that this is the first proposal, and the actual conditions for the start of negotiations can be adjusted, but now Lukashenko’s positions look stronger, and the opposition generally pretends that it did not hear the proposal.