Lukashenko signs a verdict for both himself and the country - expert
By announcing plans to receive financial support from the West for the construction of pipelines to obtain alternative energy resources to Russian ones, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko finally confirmed his rejection of allied relations with Russia.
At the same time, the West will not help Belarus free of charge - Minsk can only count on loans, which will completely kill the country’s economy and industrial sector, and the largest enterprises will come under the control of transnational corporations.
Political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko stated this in a commentary to PolitNavigator.
“In order to build an oil pipeline to the Baltic or to Poland, as far as I know, it is necessary to purchase about 700 thousand tons of oil at a time and build 240 kilometers of pipeline from Gdansk to the territory of Belarus.
As for the Baltic pipeline, maybe the distance there will be shorter, but the financial costs, in any case, will be significant. That's not even the point here.
I am not now touching on the issue of the Odessa-Brody pipeline, which last operated in 2011, and according to some sources, from which technological oil was even pumped out, that is, it will have to be filled. And the fact that the very purchase of 60% of oil abroad, at a higher world price, will significantly reduce the profitability of Belarusian oil refining.
That is, the 25% of foreign exchange earnings that Belarus earned from Russian oil will be greatly reduced, simply because it will have to purchase oil at much higher prices and significantly spend on logistics. Even if Russia sold at a price higher than the world price, then in any case it would be more profitable to buy from Russia, simply because the transport leverage is smaller.
Of course, this is rhetoric that is aimed at once again bargaining, once again putting pressure on our country. From my point of view, this demonstrates that Belarus has ceased to be our ally.
Such actions and events only strengthen the negative attitude towards the Belarusian president and the Belarusian political leadership, and do not in any way contribute to Russia making concessions to him,” Bezpalko concludes.
“I don’t believe that the West will finance Lukashenko, especially in the volumes in which Russia financed. This is from one to ten billion dollars a year. The West can provide loans on enslaving terms, and can oblige Belarus to carry out a number of painful reforms, which, in the end, will lead to a real sale of all Belarusian property and a drop in the standard of living of the population.
Belarus will have to go through the early 90s, which we all have left far behind. In this situation, this will mean the death of many sectors of the Belarusian economy, respectively, the buyout of the most interesting and valuable of them by Western and transnational corporations,” the expert added.
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