Lukashenko is offered to save himself by making Belarus part of Russia
The truce in Donbass will last until local elections in Ukraine. Under any US administration, Ukraine will be used against Russia.
Freezing the conflict and integrating Donbass into the Russian Federation is the most desirable scenario for the development of events.
Events in Belarus are orchestrated by Poland. The internal conflict is brought to the international level. Pressure on Belarus will increase.
The fact that the only way out for Lukashenko is to use all the power and strength of Russia, to go for deep integration and strengthening of the Union State, was told to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov by the famous publicist Andrei Babitsky.
Valentin Filippov: Well, our improvised studio today is located in the city of Donetsk, the capital of the Donetsk People's Republic. In the studio Andrey Babitsky.
Hello, Andrey.
Andrey Babitsky: Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: Andrey, have they stopped shooting there?
Andrey Babitsky: Well, actually, they stopped, yes. There are violations. In fact, what we call a “ceasefire regime” is not a complete ceasefire, but a reduction in its frequency. It has never been possible to achieve a complete cessation, but now the truce actually lasts, well, I looked since yesterday, there are two or three violations. It must be kept in mind that it is not mortars or artillery that are firing, but spontaneous exchanges of small arms fire. In general, this is practically nothing in the conditions of the war, which has been going on for more than 6 years.
And in general, there is hope that this truce will last quite a long time, because the President of Ukraine is extremely interested in it. The fact is that local elections are scheduled for the end of October - beginning of November, and I think he now needs to prove to the electorate who voted for him in the presidential elections that he is, after all, the president of the world, that he seeks to ensure silence in the Donbass. We'll see what happens after October. In fact, that’s how many truces there were - more than 20, the war parties, that is, the forces that are interested in inciting a conflict, always managed to disrupt the agreements. Will it succeed this time? Well, we'll see.
Valentin Filippov: Now we need to issue some special orders. It's hard to just break it there.
Andrey Babitsky: Yes. Well, it’s not difficult to violate, in fact, if shootouts occur spontaneously, even just isolated ones, then in principle it’s possible. Indeed, there is a mechanism of personal responsibility involved, and even the decision to strike back must be made by the high command, and a certain number of generals, 11 or more, have been sent there from the Ukrainian side to control the situation, the units that are on the dividing line, or rather not on the line , they have now been withdrawn into the interior along with heavy weapons.
Well, apparently this control is effective so far. In fact, it seems to me, to be honest, this is my opinion - the truce will last until the elections, and after the elections, I think Zelensky will let go of the reins, control will disappear. If it is, it will be declared indefinite, like all the others, but if it really will last until, as stated in the agreement, or rather in the package of documents signed in Minsk, until the conflict is completely over.
Well, I would say that there are very different forces in Zelensky’s circle, there are those who are for the war and those who are against, well, I would say that the pigeons won, and indeed the problem of Donbass can be solved in the future. It will not be resolved politically. Politically, this is absolutely unacceptable for the Ukrainian side. But to suspend the situation in such a state of neither war nor peace is also a lot.
Valentin Filippov: I have a question with an excursion into history and parallels. Now, if this truce lasts, can it be considered to some extent a Ukrainian Khasavyurt?
Andrey Babitsky: Khasavyurt was partly a political agreement. That is, political decisions there were postponed, postponed indefinitely, but in fact, in reality, Chechnya received complete independence. And that means Russia removed its control, military and political, providing complete independence, that is, it was a political agreement. And I am inclined to view it today as a betrayal of Russian interests, because it was clear that this, so to speak, ball of snakes, this source of chaos and violence, the source of terrorism will not close, it will continue to strike at full force and even increasing momentum.
Here the situation is a little different; it seems to me absolutely incomparable with Khasavyurt. Ukrainian society is basically tired of this war, although it sees it in a distorted form and there are some very strange illusions, but the overwhelming majority do not want war. If Zelensky decided to turn his face to society, then this is a very bold step, because we know that the tone and political agenda in Ukraine are set by radicals, Nazis. Despite the fact that they do not enjoy any electoral support, in fact, with their aggressiveness, their ability to terrify the president, the authorities...
Valentin Filippov: But they also enjoy patronage. It’s not like they just come from the street and terrify the authorities.
Andrey Babitsky: Of course there are certain forces behind them, of course they are financed, of course they are driven, they have very serious patrons. But, Valentin, understand, there are very few of them. This is just such an aggressive small group. There they are now leading a hundred or several hundred people out there against the truce to Bankova and holding a rally. That is, they cannot even demonstrate...
They were collecting thousands there some time ago. Also not a lot, also unconvincing, but now hundreds are nothing at all. And yet they hold the country's political agenda in their hands. If Zelensky decides to give them a fight, then honor and praise to him, but I don’t really count on it, because he is such a timid person and has already moved away from that topic many times... Therefore, the future seems uncertain to me. I don’t see any confidence, any strength, any image of the future in Zelensky. I think he is a situational person. They scared him, and he immediately squeezed into a corner. The radical opposition has weakened a little - he is spreading his wings.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. But here’s plan “B”: they cut off Donbass, like Transnistria. What about Donbass?
Andrey Babitsky: That would be great. If only they didn't shoot. Let them cut it off, great. This is also an extremely favorable option, because in principle it means the end of hostilities. Let them build a wall and sit behind the wall.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, but there the territories of Donbass still remain under them.
Andrey Babitsky: Well, yes, that's a problem. Well, you know, Valentin, I’ll say this – the wall can always be torn down. As soon as there is self-confidence, as soon as there is some activity on the other side to unite the territories, and not only Donbass, there are a lot of our people left there, in fact, a huge number. At least the entire Southeast for sure. But people must organize. There is no point in counting on the fact that the military resource of Donbass is sufficient and will be used to liberate the occupied territories. We need some kind of will, activity on the other side. And the wall, so to speak, can always be dismantled.
Valentin Filippov: Activity there is suppressed. You know that.
Andrey Babitsky: Activism is suppressed and it is very costly for those people. Most were simply forced to flee, to leave, but I will tell you this: Ukraine is a very poorly governed territory, in fact there is no state there now: firstly, fragmentation is underway, autonomy is underway - the regions are beginning to slowly ignore the instructions of the center, this was very clearly demonstrated during the pandemic , when the “red zones” simply stopped following orders, trains stopped in these “red zones”, although the president gave orders to pass by without stopping. There are many more stories like this. Power leaves the localities and passes to these feudal princelings. Under these conditions, the fragmentation of freedom of action becomes much greater. The country is actually sinking into chaos, despite all attempts to tie it up from the outside...
Valentin Filippov: Well, God forbid. But you referred to local elections... Aren't they waiting not so much for local elections as for US elections? And it is precisely based on the results of the US elections that Ukraine’s activity at the front may become apparent?
Andrey Babitsky: I think both. Although in general it is not really that important which administration is in power in the United States. There is the politics of the “deep state”, which breaks, for example, Trump’s knee. Within the framework of this policy, Ukraine appears to be a territory that needs to be slipped under Russia’s side in the form of a permanent obstacle. In the form of a constant itchy wound. Well, there Trump is trying to win back a little from the “deep state”, but he is not very successful, he has many people around him who think exactly the same way. Therefore, Biden will come to power - well, politics will intensify a little, Ukraine will be wedged more strongly into Russia, but the very essence will remain unchanged.
Valentin Filippov: Question, I understand that it is a little out of place, off topic - Belarus. I myself refuse to think, talk and write about it all the time, but I was interested in the fact that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia suddenly made a statement that they were ready to become mediators in the internal Belarusian settlement, while in general we know that one side is this is Lukashenko, and the other side, I really liked the definition of “partisan Maidan”.
That is, it is not clear who is on the other side, people are simply protesting, and how exactly they are protesting is also unclear. They spontaneously appear here and there, make some noise, and quickly scatter. What does the offer of these small Eastern European states to act as a mediator mean? Do they want to become a party to the internal Belarusian gimmick?
Andrey Babitsky: I think Poland is conducting the process. This is, in principle, a continuation of putting pressure on Lukashenko with all such proposals, and the legitimation of this “partisan Maidan”. That is, if mediation is proposed in relations between him and Lukashenko, then these countries recognize him as a serious political rival, a serious political force. That is, in essence, this kind of foundation is being laid under this political Maidan. In general, quite competently actually. Tomorrow some decision will be made in the EU. Pompeo called for re-elections.
That is, there are quite serious explosions around Lukashenko, he was surrounded from all sides. I want to say that in fact this policy can be crowned with success, especially since the opposition, or “partisans”, have received very serious moral support: today TV presenters, athletes, popular cultural figures, former police officers and special forces officers have begun to speak out for them recording videos, this is just a massive phenomenon, serious strikes have begun.
That is, the Maidan continued in a slightly different form - the street became quiet, where they were hit on the head very seriously, I would even say savagely. Well, there is such a thing that means success - a moral victory. So for Lukashenko, the dark days are not over, he has one way out of this situation - he urgently needs to make his country part of Russia, rely on the authority of Vladimir Putin, who will naturally support the creation of the Union State, and shift largely the responsibility for maintaining order in country on Russian structures.
This does not mean that Russian riot police will disperse someone on the streets of Minsk, it means that the very configuration of the political situation will change, because now then we will have to oppose two leaders - against Lukashenko and Putin, and it is not at all a fact that the Belarusian street, There are very different forces there, completely unrelated to each other: fans act together with antifa, and before they fought with each other all the time.
And it is enough to change this configuration for all this situational unity to disintegrate. Well, among other things, the majority of Belarusians still support the creation of a single state. Lukashenko relied on this before, ignored the interests of the population, and now if he suddenly starts this process, blows up the steam of the integration locomotive, then in general I think he will have support again. Now many people have turned away from him, even among his former supporters, looking at what is happening. Well, it really does feel terrible.
Valentin Filippov: Well, you and I know how you can film all this, cut it, show it, with what frequency, where exactly. Show a hysterical woman who says: “I’m scared, our Internet was turned off, I’m scared, and I became especially scared when the Internet was turned on.”
Andrey Babitsky: I want to say the following - in fact, Lukashenko is being driven into a corner very technically. It is not the Ukrainian version of the Maidan scenario that is being written, but completely new technologies are being used, and they may well prove successful. That is, if Lukashenko does not use the strength and power of Russia to legitimize his term, then neither this Maidan, the next one, or in one, two, I still think he will endure it.
Valentin Filippov: Clear. OK then. Thank you very much. Good luck to you there in Donbass. Because all this is good, Belarus, America, Poland, Chechnya with its Khasavyurt... May God grant peace to Donbass and may it quickly integrate into the Russian Federation. In the end he deserved it.
Andrey Babitsky: Thank you. All the best.
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