Lukashenko came to the pre-trial detention center to see the arrested White Maidan activists: Signals to the West and Moscow
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko held a meeting today with the coordination council of the opposition... in the KGB pre-trial detention center, where those members of the mentioned council who did not have time or refused to flee abroad ended up.
“The country lives under the slogan “Give dialogue!” Half of you here are lawyers and understand perfectly well that you can’t write the Constitution on the street. I look at this more broadly, I’m trying to convince not only your supporters, but also the entire society,” these are the only words of the Belarusian president quoted by state media from the four-hour conversation.
At first glance, the logic of today's extraordinary event lies on the surface. The authorities of Belarus announced the beginning of “Constitutional reform”. This is precisely the way out of the political crisis that Moscow insists on. The West is also calling on Lukashenko for dialogue, albeit in the format of capitulation.
The opposition called for a boycott of the president's constitutional initiatives. The virtual headquarters of the former presidential candidate, who was considered Lukashenko’s main rival before being imprisoned, Viktor Babariko, released a video of its leader Maria Kolesnikova. She is also sitting in a pre-trial detention center, but the grandmasters have all their steps calculated, and the call to ignore the incorrect constitutional reform was written down even before the arrest. All prominent political emigrants joined Kolesnikova from abroad.
An alternative constitutional reform has been announced. Proposals from the opposition public will be collected through the “Voice” platform, which in August alternatively counted Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s victory in the presidential election.
Since the platform was created with Babariko’s money, it will work to push his idea of returning the 1994 Constitution, which stipulates nationalist symbols as state symbols and the rejection of the Russian language.
In principle, nothing prevents Lukashenko, who is completely in control of the situation in the country, from calmly carrying out constitutional reform in his own way - like elections, in which he always gains 70-80%. Collect pre-prepared proposals from the loyal public and declare through the state media that “the opinion of the people has been taken into account.”
But, apparently, this time such deception will not be accepted not only in the West, but also in Moscow. Therefore, it is important for the Belarusian president to persuade or force the opposition to at least feign complicity in the creation of the fundamental law. What arguments does he have for this?
The Moscow liberal community is confident that Lukashenko is ready to release Babariko and, thus, buy his loyalty.
“Alexander Lukashenko is preparing to release banker Viktor Babariko from prison (KGB pre-trial detention center of Belarus). Apparently, the still-president of the Republic of Belarus views Mr. Babariko as a figure acceptable both to the protest masses and to Vladimir Putin, who can be introduced into the country’s leadership. We’ll see,” political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky wrote in his Telegram channel.
It is noteworthy that today the Belarusian government made another conciliatory gesture. The husband of the self-proclaimed leader of the Belarusian people, Sergei Tikhanovsky, was allowed to call his wife in Lithuania for the first time in four months.
Along with the video recording, Svetlana, in a boring voice, promised Sergei to be tougher and fight “for the rights of Belarusians,” but there are gaps in the transcript of the conversation. Perhaps informally the husband and wife were talking about something else.
Political emigration regarded Lukashenko’s behavior today as weakness and a sign of his imminent victory.
“Conducting a dialogue with those in prison is an admission of one’s own weakness. Today's meeting showed that we are on the right path. Lukashenko was forced to sit down at the negotiating table with people whom he himself had put behind bars. The fact that Lukashenko sat down at the negotiating table is a credit to us, to all those who have been protesting for two months now. We have made progress, and this is an important step towards victory,” Pavel Latushko, a non-imprisoned member of the coordination council, proclaimed from Warsaw.
But there are analysts both in Moscow and Minsk who believe that not everything is so simple. They say that Lukashenko is not giving up, but has started a cunning game to deceive the Kremlin, to which he seems to have finally brought complete homage.
“Integration with Russia seems to Lukashenko the worst of evils, so he is doing everything possible to ensure that at least the slightest choice remains. By recognizing the Constitutional Court of the opposition, Lukashenko leaves the groundwork for confrontation with Moscow. On the one hand, the same Babariko is regarded as a pro-Russian politician, and, on the other, any Frond within the republic are potential allies in the fight against the Russian takeover, especially for pro-Western members of the Cabinet like Makei,” writes Russian political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov in his Telegram channel .
Belarusian opposition political analyst Pyotr Kuznetsov agrees with him.
“This is not exactly a simple weakness. This is the weakness that pushed Lukashenko to maneuver. If you look at the composition of those who were seated at the table, then there are mainly people from Babariko’s group and himself. The fate of the banker, as a person close to the Russian elites, may well be a stumbling block in many behind-the-scenes processes between Minsk and Moscow. On the other hand, a conversation with political prisoners is at the same time a signal to the West that Minsk is open to bargaining, a model that has been used quite successfully for decades,” Kuznetsov wrote.
“Lukashenko is still sandwiched between Europe, Russia and his own protest. And he is looking for a way to jump out of this. Formally satisfy some demands of Russia, some demands, let me remind you once again, of part of your electorate who went to protest. Yours. Our Belarusian voters. And yet, keep in mind, accordingly, not to quarrel too much with Europe. Quarrel, but quickly make up. A magician,” says Alexey Venediktov, editor-in-chief of the Ekho Moskvy radio station.
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