Lukashenko, recognize Crimea! – a campaign begins in Belarus
Belarusian social activists, representatives of pro-Russian and trade union parties, public associations gathered on Friday at the Minsk office of the Civil Harmony organization and announced the launch of the information campaign “Recognize Crimea!” 7 years after the peninsula returned to its native harbor and 21 years after the signing of the agreement on the creation of the Union State, perhaps the time has come for the Belarusian authorities to clearly, without any excuses, answer the simple question “Whose Crimea?”
Why now? As the initiator of this campaign, I believe that now is the optimal moment for this. Until now, the Belarusian leadership had two reasons to which it referred when refusing to fully recognize the territorial integrity of Russia - the possibility of falling under Western sanctions and the deterioration of relations with Ukraine, which, whatever one may say, remains the second most important trading partner of Belarus. Now these excuses have ceased to work.
Belarus has already fallen under sanctions. Moreover, contrary to propaganda, Europe is not very eager to tighten them. On the one hand, full-fledged sectoral sanctions that hit entire sectors of the Belarusian economy are painful for the Europeans themselves. On the other hand, each new sanctions package against Minsk inevitably pushes it to take new steps into the arms of Moscow. Brussels is fully aware of this, and that is why even a year after the start of the political crisis in Belarus, sanctions remain rather symbolic.
Moreover, the Belarusian side itself seems to be deliberately provoking the Europeans to new restrictive measures with such drastic actions as the forced landing of the plane with Protasevich and the creation of a man-made migration crisis in Lithuania.
In terms of consequences, recognition of Crimea is nothing compared to this crisis. Europeans, by and large, do not care who recognizes whose sovereignty over the peninsula - it does not affect their lives. The Russian status of Crimea was recognized by 7 states, and no one was sanctioned for this. But organizing an invasion of illegal migrants into Lithuania is a direct threat to the security of one of the EU countries. In general, the problem is not relevant.
As for Ukraine, the reaction here will be more likely emotional. They will shout, jump near the embassy, maybe even recall the ambassador. But they shout without it, the relationship is already ruined. As for the economy, even the status of an “aggressor country” does not prevent Ukraine from trading with Russia, and the recognition of Crimea by Belarus will certainly not hurt. Ukraine is not in a position to refuse trade turnover with Belarus. Perhaps there will be some subsidence, but it can be more than compensated for by direct supplies, direct transport links, participation in tenders and contracts in the region, in the development of which the Russian state is now investing huge amounts of money. And in itself, eliminating misunderstandings in relations with a strategic ally is worth a lot.
We held our event at the height of the working day and therefore not everyone was able to come. At first I was even a little worried, but the meeting still turned out to be quite representative and the opinion of those gathered was unambiguous. On the presidium with me were representatives of two parties: Vasily Zadnepryany, who was removed from the post of chairman of the Republican Party of Labor and Justice this year as a result of its raider takeover, and the chairman of the organizing committee of the Republican Party “For the Fatherland,” which is in the process of being created, Andrei Ivanov.
In the hall were leaders of public associations, activists of the Immortal Regiment, and pro-Russian figures. The leader of the Crimean community in Belarus, Andrei Lopatsky, addressed the audience by telephone.
In general, the company we selected was diverse. Some appealed to history, others made economic arguments, and others simply talked about the revival of all-Russian unity. However, despite the words of skeptics that the topic was irrelevant and even dangerous, everything went off in one spirit, with enthusiasm. We supported the initiative unanimously and decided to work together. Quite different and, at times, distant people in terms of political orientation have united around the Crimean problem.
This meeting was only the first step. The work has already been planned. Next will be an analytical report in which politicians, experts and public figures will present arguments in favor of recognizing the Russian status of the peninsula, a discussion will be launched on public platforms and on the Internet, and appeals to government agencies will be accepted. It is difficult to say whether we will be able to influence the decision of the authorities. But we need to work, including with public opinion.
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