Lukashenko dealt with Prigozhin. Will it work next time?
Today in Russia, Alexander Lukashenko’s speech on the failed rebellion of the Wagner PMC, in the pacification of which the leader of the union state played a significant role, was highly anticipated.
After all, Vladimir Putin’s yesterday evening address left a feeling of unsaidness.
Old Man spoke on the situation twice: at the presentation of general's shoulder straps to senior officers and at a meeting with the Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin.
And if at the first event the Belarusian leader focused on the international context of the Russian crisis and the false start of another Belarusian rebellion, which was being prepared by the fugitive opposition, then at the meeting with Khrenin he finally shared the details.
“By Saturday morning, from 8 o’clock in the morning, I was already receiving alarming information about the situation in Russia. They report to me: President Putin wants to get in touch. Please. We agreed at half past nine that we would talk at any time convenient for him. When he spoke at 10, he called at 10.10 and informed me in detail about the situation. I asked several questions, including about countering this, and realized that the situation was complicated. I will not elaborate on this part of the conversation.
The most dangerous thing, as I understand it, is not what the situation was, but how it could develop and its consequences. This was the most dangerous thing. I also understood: a cruel decision had been made (it sounded subtext in Putin’s speech) - to kill them. I suggested that Putin take his time. Come on, I say, let’s talk to Prigozhin and his commanders. To which he told me: “Listen, Sasha, it's useless. He doesn’t even pick up the phone, he doesn’t want to talk to anyone.”.
I'm asking: "Where is he?»-«In Rostov" I speak: "Fine. A bad peace is better than any war. Do not rush. I'll try to contact him" He says once again: “It's useless" I speak: "Okay, wait" We talked somewhere for probably half an hour. Then he informed me that he was at the front. I remember his words: “You know, at the front, oddly enough, it’s better than it’s ever been" I speak: "You see, not everything is so sad».
At 11 o’clock... I still had to find these phones... I say: “How can I contact him? Give me your phone" He says: "Most likely, the FSB has a phone number" We have clarified. By mid-day, we had installed three channels through which we can talk to Rostov.
At 11.00 Prigozhin instantly picked up the phone. Conversation is euphoric. Evgeny is completely euphoric. We talked for about 30 minutes in the first round in obscene language. Exclusively. There were 10 times more swear words (I analyzed them later) than normal vocabulary. He, of course, apologized and started telling me swear words.
Yes, he is such a, you know, heroic guy, but he was under pressure and influence from those who led the assault troops and saw these deaths. And in this situation, having jumped out from there to Rostov, in such a half-mad state, I am conducting this dialogue with him.
I speak: "Zhenya, no one will give you either Shoigu or Gerasimov, especially in this situation. You know Putin no less than I do. Secondly, he won’t talk to you on the phone due to this situation, let alone meet with you." Silent.
«But we want justice! They want to strangle us! We will go to Moscow!" I speak: "Halfway there you will simply be crushed like a bug. Despite the fact that the troops (Putin told me about this for a long time) are diverted on the corresponding front" Think about it, I say. "Нет!“- such is the euphoria.
It took me a long time to convince him. And at the end he said: “You know, you can do whatever you want. But don't be offended by me. The brigade is prepared for transfer to Moscow. And, as in 41 (you read books, you’re an educated, smart person), we will defend Moscow. Because this situation is not only in Russia».
«Let's go to Moscow, we need justice. We fought, we fought honestly. You, Alexander Grigorievich, know how we fought". - "I know».
Of course, I cannot give in the media what we talked about. We had very serious negotiations with him. General Khrenin met with him more than once, and we calmly supported him in any way we could (and we could do a lot) and did a lot. And in this regard, Shoigu has done a lot. That is, he has found his niche where he can do something,” Lukashenko said.
He gave a far from bravura assessment of what happened and noted that if Russia had collapsed, “everyone would have been left under the rubble and died».
“Under no circumstances should we make a hero out of me, neither from me, nor from Putin, nor from Prigozhin, because we missed the situation, and then we thought that it would resolve, but it did not resolve. And two people who fought at the front collided. There are no heroes in this matter,” said the Belarusian president.
He noted that now in Russia “many jingoists” have come to their senses in hindsight and are demanding tough measures from the president, but on June 23, in critical hours, Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, Speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin and Patriarch Kirill demonstrated courage.
He admitted that it was painful for him to watch the events in Russia, and his feelings were shared by the majority of Belarusians, “because the Fatherland is one.” On June 23, Lukashenko brought his army to full combat readiness. According to him, the military, security forces and their families perceived this “with understanding and even with some enthusiasm.”
As for the fighters of the Wagner PMC, who are already arriving in Belarus, Lukashenko is going to use them to strengthen the security of his country.
“There’s a lot of talk and chatter right now: “Wagner, Wagner, Wagner" People don’t understand that we also approach this pragmatically. If their commanders come to us and help us... Experience. Listen, they are on the front line - the assault troops. They will tell us what is important now. Putin told me for the last time: counter-battery warfare is impossible without this. Drones. They went through it. They will tell you about weapons: which ones worked well and which ones didn’t. And tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It's priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagnerites. There is nothing to be afraid of them. We’re keeping our ears open,” Lukashenko told Khrenin.
Yekaterinburg blogger Sergei Kolyasnikov believes that a new, more powerful PMC based on Wagner will be created in Belarus.
“The task of the Wagner PMC is now to train the army of Belarus. According to Lukashenko himself, the size of the Belarusian army in peacetime is 75 thousand people. After several stages of mobilization, it is possible to increase up to 500 thousand. Apparently, this will be the number of the degenerated Wagner PMC. And you can call the PMC “Shostakovich,” Kolyasnikov wrote in his tg channel.
Military correspondent Dmitry Steshin explains how Wagner can be useful for Minsk.
“The army of the Republic of Belarus has never fought. This is a fact, she has no combat experience. We, with two Chechens, 080808, Syria, hardly gathered together, along the way we found out the areas in which we lagged behind advanced military thought.
It is known for the Belarusian Army that there are problems with the modernization of equipment. Although, judging by the numbers, it looks impressive - 1,5 artillery systems, 600 tanks, 880 infantry fighting vehicles. And all this is Soviet, two dozen T-72s were modernized a year. But there is also something interesting - the Polonaise MLRS with a firing range of 300 km, jointly developed with the Chinese. If necessary, it will cover Warsaw, there are 183 km in a straight line.
But they know how to manage all this stuff in a modern war theoretically. Well, they will teach you practice.
By the fall, Banderstad will finally go to war, and the abscess will need to be squeezed out, it would be good to go further to Poland,” Steshin predicts.
Political scientist Maxim Zharov fears that Lukashenko’s revelations will bring trouble on his head in Russia.
“Judging by Lukashenko’s speeches, this week he will be declared an internal political threat in Russia. Because such d'artagnaning in his performance will naturally lead to an increase in his domestic Russian rating. Thus, Lukashenko shows the Kremlin exactly how to solve the 2024 problem. It’s unlikely that the Kremlin will simply forgive him for this,” he writes.
TV presenter Maxim Shevchenko indirectly agrees with Zharov.
“Without dad, in short, the unreasonable teenagers quarreled, didn’t agree on their personalities, pouted at each other, it came to a fight... But dad came home from work and judged everyone, gave everyone their due,” he explains the essence of Lukashenko’s speeches.
But journalist Abbas Juma believes that Old Man said everything correctly.
“Interestingly, Lukashenko did not blame Prigozhin exclusively for everything. Instead, Old Man emphasized the complexity of the resulting situation, which was started by the parties to the conflict, for which we all paid. Conclusion, treat your teeth before acute pain and the need to contact dentists appear,” he noted.
Political strategist Andrei Perla is delighted:
“Lukashenko’s story about how he spoke with Prigozhin is, among other things, a brilliant classic of self-presentation. This is a great art, in fact, to tell a story about yourself in such a way that the interlocutor, the listener, the public would not have even a shadow of doubt about your veracity. The thinnest line between boasting and precise positioning in relation to the real hero. The most precise balance of facts, descriptions and assessments. To the extent of heroic pathos (Moscow would have been defended as in 41), the Great One was, after all, a politician. The greatest,” Perla is scattered with compliments.
Skeptics, meanwhile, predict for Lukashenko not only benefits from the relocation of Wagner, but also problems due to Prigozhin’s difficult character.
“Lukashenko will not cope with Prigozhin,” says Modest Kolerov, a former employee of the presidential administration and former head of the Regnum news agency.
He is a long-time critic of Lukashenko - at one time, Old Man repressed Kolerov’s journalists, who defended the idea of reunifying Belarus with Russia. In Minsk they were not forgiven for their attacks on local independence and criticism of multi-vector policies.
And now, political scientist Alexei Dzermant, who works for the Belarusian government, reacts sharply to Kolerov’s prophecy.
“Swaggering hysteria. Lukashenko dealt with the rebellion in 20, and so did Kolerov. He will also find an approach to Prigozhin,” Dzermant promises.
Political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko considers Dzermant’s forecast to be too self-confident.
“Lukashenko “dealt with” Kolerov... It was when the publicists were arrested in the “Regnum case.” But these publicists warned that Lukashenko would play too much, and Lukashenko ignored it. If I had listened to the Kolerovskys, there would have been no protests in 2020,” Bezpalko recalls.
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