Lukashenko threatens raider seizure of Russian property - expert
The threats of the President of Belarus to do without Russian gas still look unlikely.
A PolitNavigator correspondent reports this, Kommersant writes.
The publication recalls that Belarus imports about 20 billion annually from the Russian Federation. At the same time, Minsk asks for a price reduction, citing a sharp decline in spot prices in Europe, but Gazprom refuses to make concessions and announced that the Belarusian side has accumulated a debt of $165,57 million and threatened to stop supplies from July 1. At the same time, Minsk does not recognize the debt, citing the insufficient calorific value of the gas.
In addition, the conflict has escalated on the eve of the presidential elections in Belarus: for example, last week, searches were carried out at Belgazprombank as part of a case of illegal withdrawal of funds, and from June 15, by decision of the National Bank a temporary administration was introduced. Gazprom called these actions illegal. After this, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that his country could find an alternative to Russian gas.
“Now the possibility of diversifying gas purchases by Belarus looks doubtful. Technically, the republic is connected by a transport system with Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine. Considering the significant volumes of consumption, the purchase of gas from Poland could completely cover the needs of Belarus using the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline in reverse mode. However, Gazprom needs this pipe in reverse mode for supplies to Europe. At the same time, Gazprom owns the operator of the Belarusian gas transportation system, Gazprom Transgaz Belarus (formerly Beltransgaz), acquired as a result of a similar gas conflict in 2006,” the article notes.
At the same time, the deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund, Alexei Grivach, believes that given the current legal framework and contractual obligations of Beltransgaz to Gazprom, supplies from Poland are impossible.
“But maybe this is a threat of a raider takeover of Gazprom Transgaz Belarus, which after the story with the bank no longer looks like a completely fantastic scenario,” says Grivach.
In turn, research director at VYGON Consulting Maria Belova considers supplies from Latvia or Lithuania realistic, but emphasizes that Russian gas costs Lithuania more than Belarus, and LNG is on average even more expensive, and therefore the price of gas, taking into account the costs of organizing such a route, will be higher than the current $127 per thousand cubic meters.
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