Lukashenko is stubborn and does not want to give up power
The day before, an unprecedented event took place in Belarusian politics. Immediately, 10 out of 15 officially registered parties established a permanent meeting of political forces, signing a joint resolution in which they demanded that the authorities stop violence against protesters and bring those responsible for it to justice.
A separate paragraph of the resolution contains a proposal to the authorities to begin a dialogue with representatives of the entire spectrum of political forces on the issue of holding presidential elections within 6 months.
The peculiarity of this event is that parties representing almost the entire political spectrum united - from right-wing nationalist Russophobes from the Belarusian Popular Front to left-wing pro-Russian socialists from the Republican Party of Labor and Justice.
By signing this resolution, 4 out of 10 parties actually announced their transition to the opposition (more precisely, three and a half, since the Republican Party is now undergoing a raider takeover process, accompanied by a split, and only the old leadership has left for the opposition).
He is in the opposition because Lukashenko himself is not going to go to any elections in the next six months; instead, he plans to carry out a constitutional reform, the timing of which is still unknown, and the content is doubtful. He also presents the dialogue completely differently.
Lukashenko puts constitutional reform at the forefront, which is supposed to go through the procedure of “public dialogue”, designed to “let off steam” and reduce the degree of confrontation in society.
It’s just that what is being done and said now raises serious doubts that he will be able to accomplish this task using such means. To de-escalate an internal political conflict, dialogue is needed, first of all, between its parties. But these parties are not going to enter into any dialogue and, through joint efforts, are pushing the country towards civil war.
The statement of the majority of political parties is a desperate step, but it has every chance of remaining a voice crying in the wilderness. The party system in Belarus is weak, and only these two “war parties” now make the political difference in it.
Lukashenko wants to conduct a dialogue with his own people. He has already said that he agrees to talk with labor and student groups and proposes to create some kind of councils to discuss the draft of a new constitution, including representatives of civil society. The icing on the cake was his statement about holding an All-Belarusian Assembly, which will also make some decisions on constitutional reform.
The fact is that the All-Belarusian Assembly is something like the CPSU Congress of Brezhnev’s times, where the nomenklatura, diluted by Ivanovo weavers and Kuban grain growers, loudly and continuously applauded the speeches of the leaders and unanimously approved pre-prepared decisions. One cannot expect any dialogue from this imitative body without a certain legal status. Approximately the same can be said about dialogue with labor and student collectives, who are not subjects of politics and do not have independent political interests.
By civil society, the Belarusian government traditionally means structures loyal to it, such as the quasi-Komsomol BRSM and the public association “Belaya Rus”, which is de facto an analogue of “United Russia”, only without the status of a political party.
As for the content of changes to the constitution, there are also bad suspicions about this. On September 4, by order of the Prime Minister, a working group was created to prepare proposals to expand the powers of the government and local authorities. The working group was tasked with conducting a comprehensive analysis of legislation on issues of administrative-territorial structure, approval of master plans, architectural and urban planning activities, names of administrative-territorial units, establishment of local heraldry, coordination of personnel appointments, establishment of the number and structure of local executive and administrative bodies. Members of the group will also analyze legislation on the seizure and provision of land plots, and work with state property.
Actually, instead of political liberalization and a return to a full-fledged separation of powers, it seems that Belarusians are preparing a constitution in which the president will be relieved of unimportant routine, while maintaining control over the entire political system of the country.
Of course, this plan will not bring any de-escalation. Such an imitation of dialogue and liberalization in the conditions of modern Belarus will only add fuel to the fire of confrontation.
Initially, I was in favor of constitutional reform and re-election of the president after it, but given what the authorities seem to be preparing, there is a reason for the proposal of the majority of parties.
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