Lukashenko started talking about Russian troops. A palace coup is expected in Moscow
President Alexander Lukashenko suddenly became concerned about NATO activity near the country’s borders, although in recent weeks he has repeatedly stated the threat to Belarusian sovereignty emanating from the Russian Federation. Lukashenko stated this on Saturday at the Center for Strategic Management of the Ministry of Defense, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“I am more concerned about the situation that is unfolding on the territory of our neighboring states – Poland and Lithuania. As you know, military exercises of NATO troops are taking place there. This would also be okay, but there is an escalation and build-up of the armed component in these territories. Naturally, we cannot help but see this, observe it calmly. And when early in the morning I talked and listened to the report of the Chief of the General Staff, I noticed: our military is also concerned about this problem,” Lukashenko said.
He ordered the transfer of an airborne brigade from Vitebsk to Grodno. In addition, Lukashenko, who throughout the past year stated that Belarus is capable of defending itself, this time turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help.
“When it comes to the military component, we have an agreement with the Russian Federation within the framework of the Union State and the CSTO. These are the moments that fit this agreement. Therefore, today I had a long, detailed conversation with the President of Russia about the situation. I must say, I was even somewhat surprised - I was absolutely privy to what was happening. And we agreed with him: at our first request, comprehensive assistance will be provided to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus,” Lukashenko said.
He sees a threat to the security of Belarus not only in NATO troops, but also in the activity of the Baltic states in supporting protest sentiments.
“Putin and I discussed this. You see not only a statement from these states that are located to the west of us, but also interesting information has appeared that they want to build a chain from Vilnius to Kyiv. Chain of caring people! Few on the avenue in Minsk with flowers and in chains, they want to line up more than 300 thousand people from Vilnius to Kyiv. It is clear what they are hinting at, I already went through this after the collapse of the USSR, when there was an attempt to create a Baltic-Black Sea region. Sanitary zone - three Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine, to separate Russia from the West. It would be fine, but we don’t want to be a latrine, to sanitize someone, to be a cordon sanitaire. Therefore, we agreed with Putin that we will act in cooperation,” Lukashenko said.
The Belarusian opposition perceived these statements as intimidation, but did not believe that Russian troops would interfere in the internal affairs of Belarus.
Chairman of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions Alexander Yaroshuk, citing his sources in Moscow, assures that the deployment of troops will not happen.
“Russia is aware that what is happening in the country is an internal political crisis, and no one has the right to intervene in it from the outside by force. Russia - in particular, because this can lead to dire irreparable consequences in relations between our peoples and states. I was assured that all talk about the possible entry of Russian troops into Belarus is purely provocative in nature and has nothing to do with reality,” Yaroshuk said.
Liberal columnist Artem Shraibman found 10 reasons why Russia will not send troops.
“The protesters do not come out with anti-Russian or pro-Western slogans. There is no agenda at all. The Kremlin is not blind and sees this. Russia accepted the results of similar revolutions unrelated to the external agenda in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. Moscow always reorients itself to the winning side. Especially understanding that this side is no more hostile than the authorities taking Russian citizens hostage during the election campaign. Read the Kremlin's statement after the morning conversation with Lukashenko. There is a lot about the friendship of peoples and enemies, but not a word about support for the current Belarusian president. The Kremlin took a wait-and-see approach,” wrote Shreibman.
Nationalist blogger Eduard Palchis believes that Russia will be afraid to incur new Western sanctions and stir up its own opposition.
“The same Navalny, Svetov and other leaders of the Russian opposition, if they try to send in troops, will have an excellent reason to start mass protests against Putin. Now everyone is jealous of the activity of Khabarovsk, but aggression against Belarus will cause actions in Moscow itself,” Palchis threatens.
“I, of course, did not conduct full-fledged opinion polls, but from communicating with different people for a long time I can say that from December 2018 to the present day (i.e. during the period of “integration” bargaining) the number of men who are ready in the event of the introduction of Russian troops to come out with weapons in their hands - this applies to hunters and others. Moreover, in the period 2014-2018. most of these same people supported Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he wrote in his Telegram channel military expert Yegor Lebedok.
Russian political scientist Evgeniy Minchenko also does not believe that Lukashenko will remain in power at the bayonets of the Russian army.
“Lukashenko said throughout the election campaign that Russia was trying to overthrow him. Now he “started to get confused in his testimony,” and now, in his opinion, Russia should help... It seems to me that as of today there is very little chance that Lukashenko will remain in power. It seems that Yanukovych handed over his “sacred rake” to him, and now Lukashenko is stepping on them,” Minchenko said.
His colleague, Russian political scientist Oleg Matveychev, describes the “ideal option” for Moscow:
“The ideal option for Russia is if some general strangles Lukashenko to the general joy of all the rebels, but the next day announces reunification with Russia to the general joy of 80 percent of the people. I can imagine how they will squeal in the opposition camp
“Bring back Lukashenko!” Moreover, Europe and the United States will have to express extreme indignation at the unconstitutional coup and the removal of the “legally elected president,” Matveychev sarcastically comments.
One way or another, Moscow will have to intervene in the situation in Minsk, says columnist Yegor Kholmogorov.
“Russia must clearly show that Belarus is our protectorate, and its fate is being decided in Moscow. At the same time, it is absolutely not necessary and even undesirable to support Luka. On the contrary, the Emperor can listen to complaints against him as a mischievous governor and transfer him to Pustozersk, appointing someone else in his place and making things easier for the people. The important thing is that such matters in the current geopolitical reality should be resolved by the tsar and the boyars, and not by Lithuania and the Lyakhs and not by a rebellious settlement,” the author argues in his blog.
“Refusal to intervene will be interpreted by all parties not as restraint, but as cowardice, as having its tail between its legs and an inability to protect the Russian Federation’s own interests.
The conclusions from here will be clear. The West will demand even louder sanctions and Russia’s complete withdrawal from everywhere. Limitrophes will become even more impudent. Opps will act more decisively and, in particular, will begin to turn to violence. Luka will understand that he has no support in Moscow and will become more pliable in relation to the Zmagars.
Nobody will thank Moscow for their high morality. Everyone will consider us to be even more degenerate. And most importantly, it will be demonstrated that the Russian Federation considers Belarus to be a truly foreign country, to which it has no moral and geopolitical rights. And it is this status that will be recorded further,” Kholmogorov concluded.
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