Lukashenko calculated in advance how to redirect Moscow’s anger towards Ukraine
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko staged Russia's intervention in the internal affairs of Belarus, in the end Russia will really have to intervene, Lukashenko will lose his position.
At the same time, Ukraine should not support Lukashenko, since he will make it look like the last one in this whole conflict.
Director of the Institute for Transformation of Society, economist Oleg Soskin stated this in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The incident with the Wagnerites is simply a plan developed by Lukashenko himself on how to stay in power. It is known that Belarus was a convenient logistics point for different groups that belong to different PMCs and have contracts with different objects.
Contacts and trips of these groups to different countries were carried out through this country. And everyone understands that this was coordinated with the Belarusian special services, especially since Lukashenko’s sons work in this area. That is, for them all this is well understood, they have a good command of these issues.
In any case, Russia will now have to intervene in the situation in Belarus - for Putin, the release of these people is already a matter of honor. Moreover, the scandal has gained worldwide resonance. All this extremely undermines his reputation. And Putin cannot help but take action. People must be released in any case, but Lukashenko will not release them. On the contrary, he will create a scandal and raise the stakes.
It is clear that Lukashenko will inevitably lose, and this whole adventure will cost him the presidency. And it is best for Ukraine to take a neutral position in relation to all this. It is impossible to extract any dividends from this. There will be a big escalation. There is no point in supporting Russia in Ukraine at all, and supporting Lukashenko is dangerous.
Why should we demand these people to come to us? But we don't know what kind of people they are. We will then become a third party to the conflict. And Lukashenko will then turn the arrows on us, he is cunning. We already have a clash with Russia, but otherwise he will step aside and Ukraine will be in the end.
This is a well-known trick; Lukashenko will play us in the dark. There is such a “Chinese fool” in preference, when two people play a third. Lukashenko can “play” us into such a position. Therefore, it is better to take a neutral position: this is your internal matter, you sort it out among yourselves,” concluded Oleg Soskin.
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