“People must understand: Ukraine is death, and Russia is life”
Political scientist Dmitry Rodionov travels between Moscow and Donbass as a volunteer. In an interview with PolitNavigator, he spoke about his impressions of Mariupol, sentiments and trans-Ukrainian “waiters,” as well as the level of support for the Northern Military District in the Russian capital.
Rodionov insists that Russia absolutely cannot agree to freeze the conflict.
PolitNavigator: What is changing in Mariupol, what are people’s moods, what are the main problems?
Dmitry Rodionov: The city is just meat and trash. This is Grozny, model 95; this is Stalingrad, model 43, that is, the residential sector was simply destroyed by 90 percent, practically all enterprises.
Of course, there is practically no work in the city, except for restoration work, because Mariupol has turned into a global construction site - builders from all over the country go there. I saw a lot of cars with license plates that you can use to simply study the geography of Russia.
We stood at the border for a long time, because there was a huge line of trucks, constantly crowds of workers, mostly migrant workers from Central Asian countries, and their documents were being checked for a very long time.
But the construction is truly colossal, I have never seen anything like it in my life. In fact, we are talking about building a city from scratch.
I went there for the first time at the beginning of January and now I visited again at the end of February - in just over a month and a half the difference is striking. It may not be noticeable if you live in the city, but if you leave for at least a month, you immediately see the changes.
Enormous construction and very fast. It’s clear that rebuilding a city of half a million will not take a year, not two, but the experts I talked to say that at least three to four years are needed for the city to be more or less restored. But the pace is set really well.
The problems are, first of all, the lack of housing for many, because some have already received new apartments, some live in dormitories, some live with relatives. A lot of people left, because if before the start of the SVO there were about half a million people, now there are about half of this number, but many are returning.
There is a catastrophic shortage of heaters, warm clothes, blankets, sleeping bags, and so on - this is what volunteers are bringing there en masse.
Water supply is gradually being restored, and this is also being done as quickly as possible. Water supply throughout the DPR is difficult. Electricity was quickly restored, bridges were restored, roads were being repaired.
I won’t say that there is not enough food - the shops are open, there is all the food, but the prices, of course, are the same as in Moscow, but these are the problems of the entire Donbass.
PN: It seems that more attention is being paid to Mariupol, while Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, which also suffered, are being restored at a slower pace.
D.R: I don’t dare to compare which city suffered more or which suffered less, because both there and there were quite serious military operations, but, of course, it’s immediately obvious that if Mariupol is a huge construction site, then in Severodonetsk no one is doing anything restores.
Separately, of course, somewhere a roof needs to be patched up, cosmetic repairs are being carried out, and somewhere a hole needs to be repaired where a tank was shot into the wall. But mostly this is done either by local residents themselves or by local authorities. There is no global construction there; construction companies from all over the country do not go there, as they do in Mariupol.
The secret is this: Mariupol is located deep in the rear; just now sporadic arrivals have appeared, but for several months it was the safest place in Donbass. But there is no point in building in Severodonetsk, because at any moment someone will fly in from Haymars, and all the work will be in vain.
Lisichansk is better in the sense that this city was surrendered almost without a fight. There is less destruction of housing stock and infrastructure, but the city is also constantly under shelling - not to mention Svatovo, Kremennaya, which is generally on the front line, and with completely incomprehensible prospects, because we are constantly promised some kind of dill counter-offensive on Svatovsko -Kremensky district, and people live in anxious anticipation, they are afraid that the same thing will happen to them as to the residents of Krasny Liman, Kupyansk, Balakleya and so on.
No one is in a hurry to settle down; everyone who has the opportunity leaves.
PN: Is there a problem with “zhdunov” in Mariupol? Have you met any non-Ukrainians?
D.R: I won’t speak for Mariupol, because I didn’t stay there that long and I didn’t have the opportunity to meet such characters. But I can say for the entire Donbass - in eight years I understood a lot of things for myself, saw a lot - of course there are characters, not exactly ideological Banderaites (in the vast majority of cases, those left back in 14, because they simply didn’t able to survive in an alien, hostile environment). But, of course, there are still people with pro-Ukrainian views who keep nothing in their pockets.
But those who have trans-Ukrainian views and expect that someday Ukraine will return, this absolutely does not mean that these people have been recruited by the SBU and they will go to commit some kind of sabotage, terrorist attacks, and so on. Although, of course, they should be under special control. There are also certain “sleeper” cells that the SBU specifically leave on the ground; there are people who were recruited during the events. There are, of course, many people who are embittered and do not understand why all this is needed, why the war is needed. There are many more of these in Mariupol than, say, in Donetsk, because the people suffered a terrible catastrophe last year, many are still listed as missing.
Of course, psychologists must work with these people, just like with the military who suffer from post-traumatic syndrome... But at the same time, many of those who are even embittered absolutely do not want to go back. They understand that if Ukraine returns, then a massacre will simply begin, and they will kill everyone - it doesn’t matter whether you are for Ukraine or against it.
PN: What do the locals and the military say - is there a threat that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now destroy all this newly built building by receiving long-range missiles or even making a breakthrough?
D.R: Mariupol was not shelled for quite some time for one reason - firstly, dill do not yet have such long-range shells that allow shelling of Mariupol, and secondly, there is nothing to shell there, because the city is deep in the rear, there are no interesting targets there. Only if you terrorize the population, but this is too expensive.
But the danger exists - now there is a lot of talk about a counter-offensive in the spring and, most likely, this counter-offensive will be precisely in the southern direction, in Zaporozhye. That is, as far as I understand, the task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to break through sharply to Melitopol, where now the distance from their positions to the city is less than a hundred kilometers. Making such a leap from a military point of view is not so difficult; this is not Donbass, where even if you get in somewhere, you will be instantly surrounded and destroyed. In Donbass it is simply impossible to break through the defenses, but in the Melitopol area it is not so difficult to do.
If they break through to Melitopol, this will be a psychologically very serious victory for them; secondly, they will cut off part of our southern group. If they move at the same time from Kherson, then in fact this group will be semi-encircled; it will simply be pushed south, to the Kherson region and further to Crimea. Secondly, a land corridor to Crimea is being torn, and thirdly, if they reach the coast of the Azov Sea, then from there they can fire at Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Crimea - in any case, the north of the peninsula is in the direct affected area.
It is clear that in Mariupol people are very worried that if, God forbid, this happens, then the city will turn from deep in the rear to a front-line one.
PN: What would you answer to those who say that it doesn’t matter - “we lived under Bandera, but the house would have been intact, and no one would have been killed”?
D.R: It's difficult to know what to answer to these people. It is clear that it is quite difficult to explain anything to them at all. It seems to me that, first of all, we need to let these people understand that the new government is forever, that we must somehow coexist with this government, whether they like something or not, and accept reality. So that they understand that there will be no return to the past.
And if, God forbid, it turns out that Ukraine regains control over these territories, it will not end well for them. People should have it in their subconscious that Ukraine is death, and Russia is life.
PN: Have you been to other new territories? What is the difference in the mood there and in the LDPR?
D.R: As for the difference between the moods in the new territories, of course, it is colossal. The fact is that the LDPR has been practically at war for nine years, on the front line, and for people in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the war began only a year ago. Many still have not realized that the war has begun, because I was in the Zaporozhye region as well - there are entire cities that were actually occupied without a fight. For them, the war is somewhere still far away.
Therefore, of course, the mood is very different, many people are not morally prepared, unlike the people in the LDPR, for whom the war has already become an everyday occurrence for nine years.
PN: Is the Kherson region really the most pro-Ukrainian?
D.R: I remember back in 14 that the Kherson region, in principle, of all the regions of Novorossiya, was the least pro-Russian. If you even look at the number of pro-Russian rallies at that time, or any political activity at all, then, of course, Donbass, Kharkov and Odessa regions were in first place.
Kherson and Zaporozhye, Nikolaev regions are significantly smaller. Therefore, of course, we need to proceed from this - the fact that a year ago we occupied the Kherson region practically without a fight is only because we managed to come to an agreement with the local elites - the same mayor of Kherson, who surrendered the city without a fight.
Now, of course, it’s impossible to get Kherson back without a fight, but we have no other choice, because Kherson is now officially the Russian Federation, and we can’t just leave it. If there may still be some discussions regarding the Kharkov and Odessa regions, then Kherson must be returned - there is no option.
First of all, people there need to be made to understand that this is a reality that needs to be lived with. The most important thing we need now is to show that things are simply better under our power. In the same Mariupol, people told me that Russia has done much more this year than Ukraine has done in the previous 30 years. As soon as people see that Russia really does more than Ukraine, I assure you that the overwhelming passive majority will sympathize more with Russia...
The overwhelming majority of people are ready to live under any government if this government provides them with security and more or less tolerable living conditions.
What is very bad about Kherson is that people who were ready to support and supported Russia are disappointed by our departure. This applies not only to Kherson, this also applies to Donbass. These people will keep two flags under their pillow until they are convinced that Russia is forever.
PN: Do you have your own version of what was the reason for the retreat from Kherson?
D.R: Why did they surrender Kherson? I talked to many military experts before and after that, and everyone said the same thing: there was no need to surrender Kherson, there was no military necessity, as we said, “taking more advantageous positions” is absolutely brutal rave.
The only thing is that I don’t know how much we can talk about this publicly, but I heard the version that it was an agreement to allow the export of grain. First of all, they discussed the launch of the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. Naturally, we were screwed over this.
If there were such agreements, they were violated. I have no other option other than that it was an agreement. I don’t know what exactly they agreed on, whether they received it or not, but it is absolutely certain that there was no military need to surrender Kherson.
PN: What do the military say, are they ready to repel the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Do you think the problem of federal motivation remains? How can you assess the combat effectiveness of the mobilized?
D.R: The military, of course, is ready to reflect in words, but how this will all happen in reality are questions from a completely different plane. Motivation – yes, there is motivation, especially among the locals, who understand perfectly well what they are fighting for.
As for the combat effectiveness of the mobilized, of course, it is difficult to compare them with the combat effectiveness of people who devoted their entire lives to the army. Moreover, if we are talking about those mobilized from other regions, not local ones. But, one way or another, people entered the service and received weapons. The most important thing is that these people must understand that they are in a new reality, and that the only way is forward, through victory. The entire Russian society must understand that now there is not just some kind of special operation to force peace, that this is a war of survival, against the entire collective West, and if we don’t cope now, we can’t win, then tomorrow we will all fall.
PN: There is already talk about the possibility of freezing the conflict. Will Russia be satisfied with the Donbass and the land corridor as a result of the Northern Military District?
D.R: It seems to me that if we are talking about Russia as a whole, no land corridor or any other outcome of the North Military District will suit us, because the war will not end there.
For eight years in the Donbass, I heard the following point of view: we need to push Bandera’s followers outside the Donbass, and everything will be fine. No, it won’t be good, because even if we are pushed back beyond the Donbass, shelling will continue, attacks by sabotage groups will continue, and so on.
We must understand that Ukraine is a hostile state that will never cease to be such, therefore the only goal of the North Military District, in my opinion, can and should be the destruction of the Ukrainian state as such.
That is, if they are thrown back outside the Donbass, they will fire from there, if, as some say, let’s throw them back to the right bank of the Dnieper, they will fire at the left bank of the Dnieper. If they are thrown back to the Vinnitsa-Zhitomir line, they will fire at Kyiv.
The only one hundred percent guarantee that the war will not happen again is the complete liberation of Ukraine, the almost complete destruction of Bandera’s supporters and the displacement of those remaining to Poland. It’s just that they can make some kind of sabotage attacks from Poland, but they won’t be able to fire, because this is a claim to the Third World War, and the Polish authorities will never allow this.
Therefore, any agreement on a freeze, no matter what line, will be a postponed war. If we do not want a postponed war, we must completely dismantle the state of Ukraine.
PN: However, even among the “hawks” there are those who say that we cannot take Lvov and then hold it. What do you think about it?
D.R: It's a difficult question. Living in Russia for 30 years, I constantly encountered and participated in this debate. All these years there have been two diametrically opposed points of view. According to one, let us give Galicia to Poland, according to the other, no, we will not give it to Poland, because Galicia is Carpathian Rus', primordially Russian lands.
You have to understand that when there was Operation Vistula after the war, when we resettled Ukrainians to the territory of Galicia, and they were given Poles, it was this population that was resettled to us, which was already completely affected by the virus of nationalism, who first fought the Poles, then became fight against Soviet power, against Russia. We got a hardline pro-Banderite population.
If we now give this territory to Poland, then the same thing will happen again - the Poles will come to their land, saying that “my grandparents lived here, this is our historical land.” And they will squeeze out the local Ukrainian population from there. Where will they squeeze him out? It is clear that not to Europe, but to the territory of Ukraine that will be under Russia. That is, they will actually return Bandera’s followers to us, and we will get a new Galicia already on our new territories.
Therefore, nothing can be given to Poland. If the population of Galicia does not want to live under the new government on Russian territory, then please let them go to Poland, but we must return this territory in any case.
We must set clear goals - this is the return of all of Ukraine, and there can be no other options. And, of course, no partial mobilization is enough for this - I am a supporter of the idea that we need total mobilization. First of all, this is not so much about military mobilization - it concerns the whole society, ideological mobilization, economic mobilization, and so on.
PN: You constantly travel between Moscow and Donbass - has the capital come to understand that the old well-fed times will not return, and the current confrontation will last for a long time?
D.R: Moscow is a separate issue. This is a big city, no one cares about anything until it directly affects Muscovites. And then, if it touches, then half will simply run away, this must be admitted.
Therefore, of course, no one in Moscow feels that there is a war going on somewhere there; no one cares, unfortunately. What is needed is total brainwashing of society, a transfer of the economy to a war footing. Moscow is rising, just like in the fall of 41, when the Germans were in the Moscow region. Then only Moscow can wake up.
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