Maia Sandu went on a provocation
The political crisis in Moldova has moved from a dead point. President Maia Sandu has nominated a candidate for prime minister - she is counting on the failure of the vote in parliament and the creation of a pretext for early elections.
Dissolution as a premonition
The first thing Maia Sandu faced after winning the elections was the lack of a parliamentary majority. As president, she discovered that all the levers of power were concentrated in the hands of disloyal deputies. In the legislative body of Moldova, a kind of coalition has been formed between the Party of Socialists of ex-President Igor Dodon and supporters of the wanted businessman Ilan Shor. Between them they have 53-55 mandates out of 101.
Throughout last year, the government of Ion Chicu was in power, approved by the socialists in parliament in November 2019. Criticism of this cabinet for the ineffectiveness of epidemiological measures and for the socio-economic crisis was one of the main themes of Maia Sandu’s election campaign. The Chicu Cabinet spent the last months of last year literally under siege. The government building was surrounded by protesters who brought with them tractors and other agricultural equipment. On the other hand, Sandu was pressing on Kiku. She demanded the resignation of the government in order to provoke the dissolution of parliament and early parliamentary elections. On December 23, Ion Chicu gave up and left. His duties are temporarily performed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Aurel Ciocoi.
Now Maia Sandu can try to launch the procedure for dissolving parliament and moving to early parliamentary elections. She and her supporters hope that in the new convocation of the legislative body, her PAS party will receive 40 mandates, and, together with its allies, will be able to form a parliamentary majority loyal to the president and approve a government that suits it.
The Socialists led by Dodon and other parliamentary parties also advocate early elections, at least in words. They argue that their position in parliament will only strengthen.
The President is in the corner
According to the Constitution, the dissolution of parliament can be achieved in two ways: through a double refusal of deputies to approve a new government or after three months of inactivity of the legislative body. The socialists immediately rejected the second option, promising that the parliamentary majority would continue to pass laws, no matter what.
The transition to the dissolution of parliament through a fake attempt to approve a new government poses significant risks for Sandu. “When she nominates a candidate for the post of prime minister, the socialists and Shor will vote for him on the second attempt to spite her in order to delay early elections until the fall,” Renat Usatii, leader of the opposition Our Party, said on a talk show on Tuesday evening ", a long-time opponent of Dodon.
Sandu is well aware of this risk. She even sent a request to the Constitutional Court asking to allow the self-dissolution of parliament, since more than two-thirds of the deputies were in favor of early parliamentary elections. But on January 18, the Constitutional Court refused the president’s request. Then Sandu invited members of parliament to sign a declaration with a promise not to vote for the new government and provoke the dissolution of parliament. The parliamentary majority and a number of other opposition groups in the legislature refused to sign any obligations. So Maia Sandu found herself backed into a corner and forced to take risks.
West Candidate
President Sandu has repeatedly noted that she will try to nominate a candidate for prime minister so that the parliamentary majority will not consider it acceptable to vote for him. The candidacies of ex-Minister of Justice in the government of Filat (served time in prison for corruption) Dorin Recean, businessman of pro-Romanian views Vasile Tofan, adviser to the President Olesya Stamati, ex-Minister of Finance in the government of Sandu herself (in 2019) Natalia Gavrilitsa were discussed. The head of state chose the latter.
Natalia Gavrilitsa graduated from the Harvard Institute of Public Administration. J. Kennedy, worked at the US Embassy in the Republic of Moldova, as a consultant to the Vice President of the World Bank for Europe and Central Asia, in the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs at the European Commission. She has had experience collaborating with Maia Sandu since 2014, when, at her invitation, she became Secretary of State of the Ministry of Education, which Sandu herself headed. A year later, Gavrilitsa resigned and moved to live in London. In 2019, she again moved in with her former boss - now she invited her to the post of Minister of Finance. After the resignation of the Sandu government in November 2019, Gavrilitsa left the country again.
Thus, the president nominates the most pro-Western candidate for prime minister. This is a person close to her, her confidant who will be faithful to Sandu in any conditions. The President hopes that such an obvious supporter of Moldova’s rapprochement with the EU, USA, NATO, etc. pro-Russian socialists and their allies will not vote.
After being nominated as prime minister, Natalia Gavriliţă published a pathetic appeal on social networks. She stated that she would appear before citizens with a team and a program that could lead the country out of the crisis and protect their interests.
“I am honored to be nominated as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister. I will use my skills and knowledge to improve the lives of people and the prosperity of Moldova,” Gavrilitsa wrote, as if not understanding that she was not nominated for confirmation as prime minister, but to disrupt the entire procedure and dissolve parliament.
At the crossroads
The parliamentary faction of Sandu's PAS party immediately promised not to vote for Gavrilitsa. Their allies in parliament, deputies of the Platform Dignity and Truth, will hold a meeting of the party's Politburo on Monday, where they will make a decision. However, PAS and the Platform have only 26 deputies and their position has little influence.
What matters is the position taken by the deputies of the parliamentary majority. The Chairman of the Party of Socialists, Igor Dodon, said that the political formation he heads will hold a Republican Congress at the end of the week, at which it will make a decision. It depends on the votes of the socialists and Shor deputies whether the Gavrilitsa government will be approved, and thus the prospect of early elections will be canceled, or whether early elections will be held in the very near future - in one and a half or two months.
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