Maia Sandu is rapidly losing support: Why the danger of war is increasing
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has been in power for less than a year, the government approved by the pro-presidential party is not even a hundred days old, and the people, dissatisfied with the rule of the new team, are already going to protests.
Many residents of the country are disappointed and believe that the leadership is acting incorrectly: “pro-Europeans” and “anti-corruption fighters” recall the placement of relatives in warm places, the rise in prices of fuel, gas and products, the failed fight against Covid, the lack of a gas contract on the eve of winter.
The cup of patience was filled with the war with Prosecutor General Alexander Stoianoglo, who criticized the country’s authorities (he accused the president of interfering in the work of the Prosecutor General’s Office, stated that the country’s leadership was returning to the practice of a “captured state”). The Prosecutor General was removed from office and placed under arrest - a case was opened against him on several counts: abuse of office, abuse of power, passive corruption and giving false testimony to the competent authorities. So far, the investigation has not produced evidence of any guilt against Stoyanoglo.
A wave of street protests took place across the country, representatives of different political views called for unification to counter legal lawlessness. Representatives of the opposition came out in support of Alexander Stoianoglo and expressed dissatisfaction with the actions of President Maia Sandu and the ruling party in the socio-economic sphere. Already, representatives of the foreign Moldovan diaspora, who unanimously voted in the elections for Maia Sandu, and then for her party, doubted the correctness of their choice: their parents remained at home, in Moldova, who complain about the sharp rise in prices and are afraid of freezing in the winter.
The director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Igor Shornikov, talks about the situation in Moldova and possible scenarios for the development of events in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu’s team, which is relatively new to power, has already made a lot of mistakes - representatives of different parties, even supporters PAS, in unison, criticize the country's leadership. What is the main failure?
Igor Shornikov: Arrogance – this characteristic suggests itself when you observe the current authorities in Moldova. Their possession of complete power too quickly turned into arbitrariness. Belief in one’s own infallibility, reluctance to admit one’s own mistakes, a disdainful attitude towards ordinary citizens, towards any alternative opinion, towards one’s opponents, towards former allies, towards one’s own party members - all this has become a characteristic feature of the behavior of many people from Maia Sandu’s team.
What is the main failure? A new wave of coronavirus, an unsigned gas contract, rising prices for everything and even the removal of Alexander Stoianoglo from office. Each of these problems could be solved by the authorities by consolidating public efforts, in close cooperation with fellow citizens, with other political forces, and through dialogue. Then the effect would have appeared and the trust rating would have been preserved. But for this team, the source of power is not their own people, but foreign curators, whose orders they diligently carry out, regardless of image losses. And the situation with the arrest of the Prosecutor General showed a blatant disrespect for the law, and therefore for citizens, and therefore was perceived so sharply by society.
The main mistake of Sandu’s team was choosing a confrontational management model. They will not be forgiven for their arrogance and arbitrariness.
PolitNavigator: What is the arrest of Stoianoglo - is it political reprisal, state capture?
Igor Shornikov: According to the laws of the genre, the first thing the winners must do is clear the political field in order to consolidate success for many years. For Sandu, this task was entirely consistent with her election promises to clean up the system and fight corruption. But in order to finally finish off and destroy her opponents, she needed control over the Prosecutor’s Office. Obviously, Stoianoglo was not ready to carry out the political orders of Maia Sandu, and therefore, according to their logic, he had to leave his post “in an amicable way.” Apparently, he did not agree to act outside the law and did not succumb to pressure. Worse, he began to use the powers he had against the authorities. Open disobedience of a representative of the Law is a challenge, which in itself affects not just the rating, but the legitimacy of the regime. Those people who believed in their own unlimited four-year mandate, and were confident that they had come seriously and for a long time, could not tolerate this. They carried out a banal reprisal against an official.
PolitNavigator: What is the role of Moldova’s “external partners” in this matter?
Igor Shornikov: External partners partly kept silent, partly tried to justify the actions of the authorities. We did not see any condemnation of the illegal actions of this team, and it would be in vain to count on the West curbing its own creatures. Everything suggests that the “yellows” received carte blanche from the West in domestic policy to promote the Western agenda in foreign policy.
The main trump card of Sandu’s team is external legitimation. During a period of continuous internal political failures, heavy artillery rushed to her aid - a series of presidents and high representatives of international organizations. Full praise and approval. This background, which is deliberately created by Western partners, should show that everything is normal in the country and that in four years Moldova will even be able to apply to join the European Union.
You need to understand that the current team was brought into power with total Western support not so that a handful of people could rest on their laurels. This team faces large-scale geopolitical challenges. The solution to the so-called Transnistrian problem and the expulsion of the Russian military presence is only part of a region-wide puzzle, the contours of which can only be guessed at the moment. Therefore, it is now useless to count on condemnation of the illegal actions of the authorities by “development partners”.
PolitNavigator: The violations attributed to the suspended prosecutor general do not appear to have serious evidence. What further actions can the Moldovan authorities take?
Igor Shornikov: For now they have a month to compile the case on Stoyanoglo. If this time is not enough, they can extend the house arrest again and again - they are the authorities! In the meantime, they will try to divert public attention to other problems, especially since there are enough problems. Now, for example, the heating season is beginning in Moldovan cities, and many citizens would prefer to freeze in their apartments, since they are unable to pay astronomical bills for heat.
PolitNavigator: Alexandru Stoianoglo is predicted to have a political career in the future. Can he become a political leader? What maneuvers can he actually perform in this situation?
Igor Shornikov: Alexander Stoianoglo is a professional who should mind his own business. If he is not allowed to do this business, he simply has no other choice but to go into politics. Fortunately, the authorities themselves create the most suitable conditions for this.
The figure of Stoyanoglo could well turn out to be a point of attraction and consolidation of social forces. There is a great demand in Moldovan society for a new leader with moral strength. More recently, this request brought Maia Sandu to the pinnacle of power, but she is too quickly squandering the trust of citizens.
PolitNavigator: Representatives of various political forces have already held protest rallies in Moldova. Is there a chance that the motley opposition will go against the Sandu regime as a united front?
Igor Shornikov: The phenomenon of Stoyanoglo is that the arbitrariness of the authorities in relation to him caused the same negative reaction throughout society. PSRM, PCRM, Civil Congress, Our Party - they all demanded the immediate release of Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo and his reinstatement. Many left-wing politicians are trying to ride this wave. But even now, from the start, you can see that the left camp is far from unified. And even such an obvious platform - the fight for the observance of the rule of law in the state - is not capable of uniting them. This suggests that they still believe in the stability of the current government, are afraid of reprisals, and at the same time hope that the authorities will deal more quickly with their competitors on the left flank.
PolitNavigator: Recently, a parallel has often been drawn between the leaders of Moldova and Mikheil Saakashvili. Can Moldovan politicians in power in the Republic of Moldova repeat his fate?
Igor Shornikov: This would be a great achievement for them. Saakashvili nevertheless remained in power for two consecutive presidential terms, and this team, having won a triumphant victory in the elections, worked for only two months and has already provoked protests.
Saakashvili started a war at the beginning of his second term. Let's hope this story doesn't repeat itself.
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