Maia Sandu is being driven into a “minefield”
Maia Sandu took office as head of Moldova during a difficult period; after the departure of the government of Ion Chicu, the president is now responsible for the situation in the country. Moldova still has an unfavorable epidemiological situation and many problems in the economy. Sandu has no serious political allies; representatives of various political forces will certainly be waiting for her mistakes. An unpleasant surprise for her was probably the controversial language and other laws recently adopted by parliament on the initiative of PSRM deputies. Maia Sandu will have to try hard to convince her voters that they were not mistaken in entrusting her with the post of head of state.
We asked experts from Chisinau and Tiraspol to express their opinion on whether Maia Sandu will cope with numerous challenges, what Igor Dodon will do after leaving the post of head of state, what the new parliament will be like in the event of early elections and whether the Transnistrian settlement will advance in the new year.
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist:
“You can’t envy President Maia Sandu today; she finds herself in a very difficult situation.” A new president means new hopes. For two decades, Moldovans have not gotten used to the fact that the republic is a parliamentary one, so they pin all their aspirations on the institution of the presidency. On the one hand, Sandu will be put under pressure by the socialists, who have media resources, experts, analysts, and large human resources, and on the other hand, by the right parties, who still counted on weakening the position of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) in the event of defeat Sandu.
What does the president have? First of all, there is a lot of trust from voters and the support of Western partners, but this is not enough to show results and begin a reform program. I can’t say that the resignation of Ion Chicu’s government came as a surprise. Rumors about the resignation of the cabinet of ministers began to circulate immediately after Igor Dodon’s defeat in the presidential elections. I think that this decision was made a few days before the inauguration of the new president and there could be two reasons for this.
The first is the desire to show that the new government will not cope with the situation, which will plunge the country into chaos. It should be noted that, most likely, we will see such a scenario, because the president’s team has no experience, lacks specialists, little time, and the country has a difficult political, economic, social and epidemiological situation. We have already seen the government of Maia Sandu in action, and, to put it mildly, it was a failure. The second probable reason is Igor Dodon’s reluctance to make concessions to Ilan Shor, who wants to close his criminal cases in the country and return to Moldovan business and politics.
The laws that were adopted by the socialists at the last meeting of parliament are a good strategic move: the new government will have to implement them, while the socialists, it turns out, have fulfilled their election promises. Failure to implement the law on the functioning of languages and a new ban on broadcasting analytical programs from the Russian Federation will certainly turn Russian-speaking citizens against Sandu, and if the “Gagauz package” is not implemented, then the entire autonomy.
You should also pay attention to the new budget. It includes such articles as a gradual increase in salaries for doctors from January 1, 2021, and an Easter payment to pensioners in the amount of 1000 lei. Also, the socialists actually killed the pension reform, which involved a gradual increase in the retirement age. All this is a time bomb, since there is simply no money to carry out these activities. The new government and the president will find themselves in a difficult situation: they will have to find the necessary billions of lei or take unpopular measures and cancel all promised social steps, which definitely means political death.
The composition of the new parliament will not differ significantly from the current one. I believe that the Democratic Party and the Pro Moldova Party will not be included in it; their place on the left will be taken by Renato Usatii’s “Our Party”. Andrei Năstase’s DA Platform will not pass on the right; its electorate will go to Mai Sandu’s party. As a result, no one will have an advantage, which will lead to a continuation of the political crisis. The institution of the presidency is weak without the support of parliament, so Mrs. Sandu will be blamed for everything that happens in the country.
2021 will not be a breakthrough year for the Transnistrian settlement. In the current conditions, the Moldovan side will clearly have no time for Transnistria, and the authorities in Tiraspol, obviously, will not initiate acceleration in this matter. Sandu’s team does not have a vision for solving this problem; representatives of NGOs and Western partners will guide it here, if, of course, it retains power in this difficult situation. I would like to note that here it is worth paying attention to Kyiv. The team of the Moldovan president has developed strong friendly ties with the office of the President of Ukraine, so the possibility of joint pressure from Chisinau and Kyiv on Tiraspol is likely. It is worth considering even the most severe options for economic pressure.
Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (ISPRRD):
– Maia Sandu’s position is by no means weak. This is evidenced by the very fact of Kiku’s resignation. After all, the current president has no actual levers of pressure on the government, and the former prime minister had no reason to leave power, especially since the position of parliament was favorable to him. And yet he left. The fact is that Sandu’s allies are external forces in the person of the US Embassy and the EU delegation to the Republic of Moldova, not to mention Romania. The position of the US and the EU has a decisive influence on the Moldovan political class, so in the near future we will see a continuation of the tactics of concessions to Maia Sandu by the old elites under various plausible pretexts.
The laws that were adopted in parliament last month are not a problem for Sandu, as PSRM representatives are now saying. No one will oblige Sandu to cancel them before the parliamentary elections. Laws will wait until all power is in the hands of the right. And it is not necessary to repeal them; Moldovan political practice shows that inconvenient laws can simply be ignored. So the legislative “mines” laid by the socialists during their very strange retreat are designed more to preserve their electorate than to contain the right. The socialists want to convince their voters that they are not giving up power without a fight, that they are undertaking a cunning maneuver. Although in reality they are simply giving in to pressure from Western embassies.
Sandu will definitely cope. Western think tanks have been working for its victory for five years now, and they will work a little more for the victory to be complete. If the economy gets really bad, then, at Maia’s request, Sandu will probably be helped to plug holes in the budget. And this will only be a plus for her rating.
Igor Dodon has certainly strengthened the institution of the presidency. Suffice it to recall his predecessor, whom no one noticed during all the years of his reign, despite the fact that he had a little more powers. Dodon tried to make the presidential post a key one in a parliamentary republic, and he almost succeeded. For example, in the last year he regularly hosted meetings of the speaker of parliament and the head of government, thereby showing who is in charge in the country and who decides all issues. Information support for the president’s activities was noticeably strengthened; people were given the impression that the head of state was working intensively for the benefit of the country.
In general, in many ways it was Dodon’s information activity that attracted voters’ attention to the presidential elections and gave rise to high expectations. The right took advantage of this and won. Now Maia Sandu is reaping the benefits of Dodon’s media work. Her words, even if they are not always diplomatic, are listened to both within the country and abroad.
After the defeat, Igor Dodon has no choice but to prepare for future early parliamentary elections as the leader of the PSRM. However, it is now extremely difficult to believe that socialists have a future. So far we see that this party is repeating the fate of the PCRM. The communists, led by Voronin, gave in to the West in the same way in 2009 and carefully handed over power piece by piece to the right. Moreover, just like Dodon now, Voronin then spoke about the party’s cunning maneuvers that would inevitably lead it to victory. In reality, it was a deception of fellow party members and a game of giveaway with the West. It would be unfortunate if Dodon had to do the same.
The new parliament of Moldova will be different. The PSRM in it will lose its position as the largest faction, the position of Maia Sandu’s political formation will noticeably strengthen, Renato Usatii’s party and Shor’s party will have a chance to get into parliament, unionists may get in, and the “Civil Congress” may have some chances. The Democratic Party and the political formation of Andrei Năstase will most likely be absorbed by PAS. Political tourism will be eradicated in the new parliament. It will not be needed simply because the right, with the support of Western embassies, will be able to create the majority necessary to form a government. There is a high probability that the future parliament will lose its status as the main political platform of Moldova and turn into a voting machine.
Most likely, 2021 will be lost for the negotiators on the Moldovan-Transnistrian settlement. If we look at the history of negotiations, we will see that progress in them began only after the completion of the electoral processes. But 2022 threatens to be a very busy time. And Tiraspol should prepare for it now. The most pressing topics may be issues of foreign economic activity of Pridnestrovie and the disposal of ammunition from warehouses in the village of Kolbasna.
Foreign policy, including events in Moldova, may have a significant impact on the election agenda in Transnistria, which will elect a president at the end of 2021. If aggressive rhetoric on the part of Chisinau increases, the current Transnistrian authorities will certainly be able to unite the electorate. The topics of maintaining the Russian military presence and multifaceted ties with Russia as factors in ensuring regional stability and security are clear to everyone in Pridnestrovie.
Andrey Mospanov, deputy director of ISPIRR:
– Maia Sandu is a moral leader today, but she needs not to lose this initiative, which, according to our estimates, will last for a maximum of six months. During this period, Sandu and her party need to organize early parliamentary elections. The likelihood that such a goal will be achieved is high - the efforts of not only the new president himself, but also its Western allies and curators are aimed at this.
After the resignation of the government of Ion Chicu, Maia Sandu really faced the fact that she would one way or another have to take on part of the responsibility for the difficult situation in the country. And here the new president may well make mistakes. Let us remember again that the government headed by her in June-November 2019 was not very convincing.
In general, we are in for a rather interesting first half of 2021. If during this time Maia Sandu does not solve the tactical problem associated with organizing early parliamentary elections, her rating will go down.
As for Igor Dodon, he again, as he has done more than once, promises a new chess game that will be better than the previous one. There's nothing new here. Now the ex-president will most likely turn to party affairs and begin preparing the Socialist Party for possible elections.
It is difficult to say whether he strengthened the Moldovan institution of the presidency. So you won’t immediately remember any bright case that would leave a memory of Dodon as president. However, other Moldovan former presidents cannot boast of this either.
The new parliament will not be a copy of the current one. Yes, we will probably see in it again the PSRM, representatives of the right-wing parties PAS and DA, as well as the “Shorists” [the party of the oligarch Ilan Shor]. But if the situation develops as in the recent presidential elections, the party of the mayor of Balti, Renato Usatii, will finally enter parliament. And we can assume that it will be she who will have the “golden voice” in the formation of parliamentary coalitions.
It may happen that on the eve of early parliamentary elections a center-right bloc will be created in support of Maia Sandu, which will include not only PAS and DA, but also the Democratic Party, as well as other smaller forces. The maximum task of the right, as we see it, is to get ahead of the Socialist Party in terms of the number of mandates in the new parliament. And, if Maia Sandu maintains her moral and political initiative, this is achievable.
In any case, the right will have more mandates in the new parliament than now.
Russia should think about supporting not only the PSRM in Moldova (the bet on it alone did not pay off), but also other forces with which it would be possible to build political relations in the future. This is actually such a hackneyed question.
There is no point in expecting progress on the Transnistrian issue, at least in the first half of the year. The best solution for Tiraspol for now would be to maintain the negotiating status quo from the time of Igor Dodon. This, unfortunately, is not guaranteed.
Before the presidential elections in Transnistria, the situation will depend, among other things, on many external factors. We have to wait until the second half of the year. As for the domestic agenda, the main issue, of course, will be the socio-economic development of Pridnestrovie in the next five years. Above all, this is an area where voters are looking for meaningful answers from potential presidential candidates.
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