Ukraine, after bargaining with the European Union, will most likely agree to accept migrants who caused a crisis on the border of Poland and Belarus. The ruling regime in Kyiv will agree to the conditions of the West, the only question is the price and the share that Kyiv officials will be able to put in their pockets.
This forecast was voiced by Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski in his column for PolitNavigator.
...The migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border is already being discussed in all European countries, especially in those that may directly face a wave of refugees from the Middle East. Germany, which is the ultimate destination of the migration flow, is especially concerned. After all, the Iraqis in the Polesie swamps do not even hide the fact that this is where they are heading, to their relatives and brothers, whom the richest EU country accepted several years ago.
Ukraine pretends as if the problem does not concern it. “My house is on the edge,” the Ukrainian authorities indirectly repeat. Meanwhile, German politicians politely offer the placement of migrants on Ukrainian territory. And the Ukrainian head of the Security Council, Alexey Danilov, answers the Germans that European assistance to Kyiv is too small for the European Union to count on cooperation in this area.
Thus, the Ukrainian ruling elites are once again trying to obtain additional funding from Brussels. It's all a matter of price. If the crisis continues, Ukraine will be able to achieve support, some of which, as usual, will be stolen by local corrupt officials.
Meanwhile, we learn that migrants from the Middle East illegally cross not only the Polish-Belarusian border. When Polish security forces concentrated on the Belarusian section of the eastern state border, it became clear that Ukraine would become an alternative route for immigrants. We can expect that in the near future groups of Iraqis will appear in Ukraine and from there they will try to enter EU territory. The first messages of this kind are already arriving.
It is also curious that among the organizers of migrant traffic detained by Polish services there are quite a lot of Ukrainian citizens who have not only experience as smugglers, but also the possibility of legal stay in Poland.
Will the Polish authorities build a border fence or wall if the migration flow through Ukraine opens? Of course not, because Warsaw continues to adhere to the myths “about a strategic partnership with Kiev.” And some circles in Kyiv, knowing this, will take the opportunity to create a successful immigration channel, engaging in a new type of criminal business.
Then the proposal of some German politicians will become especially relevant. And it is then that Kyiv will be able to bargain with the West, demanding the allocation of new tranches of “gratuitous financial assistance.”
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