Mejlis members are in for a bummer from Erdogan
Changes in the balance of power in the Turkish parliament and the need for newly elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to create a coalition with the nationalists will not change relations between Turkey and Russia.
Political scientist Armen Gasparyan stated this in a comment to PolitNavigator.
According to him, Erdogan himself is often a promoter of nationalist ideas, so his policy here is unlikely to change.
“I don’t think that in the short term there will be any changes in Russian-Turkish relations, because at the moment Turkey is undoubtedly interested in this. Another question is that in general the entire history of relations between the two countries shows that periods of stability are replaced by periods of confrontation. Unfortunately, in history we have had a lot of military and diplomatic conflicts with Turkey. As for the balance of power in Turkish politics, I am not convinced that it will undergo serious changes, because for the most part both nationalists and Erdogan’s supporters converge on a key point at which some put it on the shield, while others still keep it in brackets - this is the theory of pan-Turkism and the Young Turks.
Therefore, it seems to me that they will agree on key aspects. Another question is that the nationalists’ support for the so-called Crimean Tatar Majlis and, in general, movements around Turkey will significantly spoil the mood of Erdogan himself. In this case, this is the last thing he needs in light of his relationship with Russia at a particular time,” Gasparyan said.
In turn, Crimean political scientist Andrei Nikiforov also notes the ideological closeness of two possible members of the coalition - the Justice and Development Party of President Erdogan and the Nationalist Movement Party, the leader of which is Devlet Bahçeli, the former leader of the paramilitary youth wing of the nationalists "Grey Wolves", who supported the Mejlis during the blockade of Crimea . Nevertheless, the Crimean political scientist assures that, despite this, the Crimean issue in Turkey is not on the agenda.
“I don’t think that the Crimean card is being played out in any way in these intra-Turkish negotiations. This is all for foreign policy, for Turkey’s game in the foreign arena. Regarding the “Gray Wolves”, not everything is so simple in their relations with the Mejlis, because initially the Mejlis is not such a radical pan-Turkic organization. These are also situational unions. It is clear that Erdogan’s freedom of maneuver is limited, but not so much that it will have a major impact on Turkey’s foreign policy, if only because Erdogan himself has been drifting towards Turkish nationalism, a greater reliance on his own forces, and maneuvering between world centers of power in the last many years. I think that in this case his positions with the nationalists are quite close, so the alliance will be natural,” Nikiforov said.
Another Crimean expert, political scientist Sergei Kiselev, agrees with him, noting that the issue of Crimea is closed for discussion and even joining the coalition of partners of the Mejlis, which is banned in the Russian Federation, will not affect this.
“Strategically, today it is most beneficial for Russia to support good neighborly relations with the Turkish Republic. Naturally, Turkey pursues its policy, at least in the format in which it is possible. Erdogan, having the goal of reviving strength and power, in the Turkish manner of raising Turkey from its knees, is forced to maneuver politically. When creating a coalition, I think he will still bend, otherwise there will be serious problems. I think that quite a lot of forces have now been thrown at Turkey in order to destabilize the internal situation and remove Erdogan from the Turkish political field.
We have already seen the Mejlis rejoice more than once on various occasions, but let’s start with the fact that no matter how much he rejoices, he still remains illegitimate. Secondly, all hopes that “a wizard will suddenly arrive in a blue helicopter” are dashed by the ironclad arguments expressed by the Minister of Defense that the issue of Crimea is closed and nothing will change here in anyone’s interests. All hopes for any changes are hardly possible,” notes Kiselev.
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