Merkel does not answer Poroshenko's calls. Ukrainians will be cooked slowly
The Normandy format without official Kyiv and the Big Two “Russia – USA” decide the fate of Ukraine. The German leadership does not answer calls from Kyiv. Rex Tillerson promises not to abandon Ukraine, but only “for now.” In the ruling circles of the junta, an intraspecific struggle has begun for the highest positions that will be vacated. The West is planning to sell Ukrainian land for next to nothing, and in Lviv documents are being prepared for restitution and transfer of property to Poland. Lyashko wants to be president. Poroshenko wants to come to an agreement with Yatsenyuk and Turchynov, but Tymoshenko just always wants to.
The bombings of senior SBU officers are the “hand of God.”
The fact that Ukraine is being skillfully led to complete destruction, with hope for the best for Russia and the observer PolitNavigator to Valentin Filippov said a former Verkhovna Rada deputy who supported the rebels in Novorossiya, Oleg Tsaryov.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello.
Oleg Tsaryov: Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, is it possible to consider the Normandy format not a four, but a three for special purposes?
Oleg Tsaryov: We remember that on the 5th there was a statement from Merkel that “under no circumstances will we leave any meetings without the participation of Ukraine.” And so, from the 5th, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine bombarded Germany, the office in order to agree on when Pete Poroshenko would fly. But at first they told him: wait, wait. And then they stopped answering phone calls altogether. Therefore, the plane was ready, and everyone was already ready, sitting on their suitcases. And, unfortunately for Ukraine, they were forced to watch the event remotely on TV.
Valentin Filippov: It's clear. In other words, we negotiated with the answering machine.
Oleg Tsaryov: This is a blow to Petro Poroshenko. And Tillerson’s visit to Ukraine, who arrived to reassure Petro Poroshenko, did not help much. But when he calmed down, he said a phrase that is now quoted by all Ukrainian media that the United States is not going to surrender Ukraine YET. This word “yet” is now being chewed on by all journalists. And it did not add optimism to the Ukrainian authorities.
Valentin Filippov: I got the impression that the United States, instead of Ukraine, wants to openly represent its interests, perhaps in the Normandy format.
But, nevertheless, they do not want to let Ukraine go, the Americans still have some plans for it, and they put forward demands that do not comply with the Minsk agreements.
Oleg Tsaryov: Here, some optimists believe that “everything, hurray, everything is great.” Now there will be changes in the position on Ukraine, it will be possible to return to normal life. I don't think this will happen. I would really like to be optimistic, but I think there will be two processes going on.
The first is that Ukraine will indeed be listened to less and less and taken into account less and less. The weaker Petro Poroshenko is and the more complex the situation in Ukraine, the more dependent the Ukrainian government is on the West, the less it will be taken into account. But at the same time, the West will use Ukraine to put pressure on Russia.
On the other hand, this is a captured country, everyone has their sights set on assets. Ukraine will have quite large debt payments next year. 71-72 or 75 billion dollars, how to calculate the hryvnia exchange rate, is the total amount of internal and external debts. And somewhere else about the same amount is corporate debt.
Valentin Filippov: That is, one hundred and fifty together, right?
Oleg Tsaryov: The total is about 150 billion dollars. You need to understand that foreign companies very skillfully then transfer these debts into debts to the IMF. And the IMF then lends and repays, and does not allow its commercial structures, which have given credit to the creditor country, to collapse.
And, in general, on the one hand, it turns out to be a fairly large amount of 150 billion dollars, but on the other hand, it’s just pennies in comparison with the cost of land, nuclear energy, and ports. This is what Petro Poroshenko now insistently wants to sell.
Just imagine, it was Germany, the First World War, the Second World War, the goal was to capture Ukraine. The war costs trillions of dollars. But here, it turns out, you can buy a country for pennies. The IMF has already calculated the collateral value of Ukrainian land for themselves - it’s about 200 billion dollars. This is just a ridiculous price.
Valentin Filippov: That is, they, in principle, can still give money to the current Kyiv regime with this amount. Approximately what amount?
Oleg Tsaryov: In case the land market starts working.
Valentin Filippov: Well, maybe they won’t?
Oleg Tsaryov: Well, why not give it? The cost of land in Ukraine now ranges from 200 to 400 dollars per hectare. The cost of land in the European Union is about 30 thousand euros per hectare.
30 thousand euros and 200 dollars per hectare! And in Germany it is 50 thousand euros. Imagine, in fact, a country can be bought for pennies! This does not take into account the fact that privatization has now begun and they want to sell off all the remnants of the economic power of the Soviet Union, which was inherited by our Ukrainian government.
Valentin Filippov: Well, there was already little left there, it seemed to me.
Oleg Tsaryov: And I am sure that our Western Ukrainian partners will fight very hard to get what they rightfully consider theirs. After all, it is very profitable. They first staged a coup, installed controlled government officials, and then they will buy everything they want to buy.
After all, you know, this IMF money will be enough to maintain calm in Ukraine for another five years. Yes, they will pay the police - they will pay good wages, they will give some minimum money so that the situation does not explode immediately.
Ukrainians will be cooked little by little, they will get used to the fact that each time the water gets hotter and hotter.
Valentin Filippov: But all the same, some kind of activity should remain on this territory. That is, if some resources are bought, some are captured, then it is necessary to ensure the activity of these resources. Factories, if any factories remain, ports - ports must load something. After all, land is only worth something if you do something with it.
Oleg Tsaryov: No, they will. Only such a number of people in Ukraine is not needed. We see that now representatives of the middle class, who most actively supported the Maidan, are now most actively leaving abroad.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they achieved visa-free travel.
Oleg Tsaryov: In fact, the Maidan was needed in order to sell the country, get visa-free and leave this country. This is such a sad situation. And this is a very bad, very negative scenario, and I still hope that God has always somehow helped us Russians, Slavs. And when the West built carefully thought-out strategic plans, then once and for all we somehow succeeded, we got out of it, and in the end we defeated everyone. I hope that this time it will be the same. True, I don’t know how.
Of course, maintaining stability is extremely important for Petro Poroshenko. And stability is, first and foremost, a coalition. Therefore, Petro Poroshenko is now persistently inviting the Popular Front to unite. Now everyone, almost everyone, is aiming for re-election. Tymoshenko helps most of all, Sadova, Kolomoisky and so on. But only the Popular Front and Poroshenko are against re-elections.
There were meetings, recently there was a big meeting at the Popular Front, where Burbak was, Turchinov was, there were leaders of regional organizations of the Popular Front, there were people’s deputies. We sat and deliberated, a closed meeting, but, nevertheless, we did not yet make a decision to unite with the Petro Poroshenko Bloc.
Why? Because Petro Poroshenko’s situation is very difficult, and Yulia Tymoshenko and the protest movement in the country are gaining popularity. If it is not possible to carry out privatization and open the land market, then giving money to Ukraine will actually come from your own pocket.
So the IMF doesn’t want to simply take out money and give it back - there is an understanding that this money will never come back.
The situation at the International Monetary Fund is very difficult now. You know that China and other countries should have more votes. And now, in fact, the United States is pushing through these decisions and getting into the pockets of not only itself, but also, in general, other members of the International Fund.
Those. The IMF gives (lends) irrevocable money, irrevocable if, I say again, the land is not sold and the last privatization is carried out. And this is a rather risky investment.
Valentin Filippov: Well, wait. You want to say that, in principle, if a decision is made on the land market, that the land is for sale, then loans will be given specifically for the sale of land. How will this money get back to the IMF? Well, they will announce a land market. Well, they will sell it, as always, through some companies, through someone.
And secondly: doesn’t it make sense to speed up this land market by holding re-elections? That is, what do external players think in this situation? Do they need a change of power in Ukraine? Do they need elections or not? Washington, the Washington Regional Committee, especially considering that Poroshenko messed up while Trump was being elected.
Oleg Tsaryov: Look at the statements of the United States. Tillerson said that it is necessary to comply with the requirements of the IMF and that the land market must be resolved. They understand that without this it will be very difficult for them to push for further funding for Ukraine. But believe me, these 200 billion dollars are such a tiny amount compared to the value of the country that if private companies buy land, they will simply give this money to Ukraine, and that’s all.
They will buy up the land, and the country will be... Well, how much? 200 billion dollars were given to Poland just like that when they joined.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they killed shipbuilding and killed the mining industry in Poland. They removed the competitors well there. So, there was a price there too. And now Poland is planning to plunder Ukraine.
By the way, I wanted to ask about Poland. Don't you think that Poland can catch a "star" - as Trump praised them! He gave them rockets, however, for their own money. He called them the heart of Europe.
Perhaps Poland can begin to claim some kind of leadership in Europe? Moreover, they will sell American gas. Germany wants to trade Russian. Somehow their interests do not coincide with Germany, for example.
Oleg Tsaryov: You know, they all have the same interests. I look at everything from the point of view of Ukraine. England and Germany want to get land and metallurgy. If they get metallurgy, it means they become third in the world in metal production.
The Poles lay claim to Lviv.
Look at the situation regarding Poroshenko and his candidates. Yulia Tymoshenko was like a quiet horror in Yanukovych's nightmares. In the same way, she is in Poroshenko’s nightmares.
Valentin Filippov: But judge Rodion Kireev is not there for her!
Oleg Tsaryov: Yes, Kireev is not there. Therefore, in the event of early elections, Petro Poroshenko is preparing, in general, several scenarios.
Well, firstly, he needs to bring his own candidates into the second round, who cannot win against him. There aren't many of them. They call Boyko, they call Rabinovich, he really pretends, he really wants to be Lyashko’s rival to Poroshenko.
The biggest threat is posed by virtually everyone who can reach the second round; everyone else can beat him, from Nalyvaichenko to Vakarchuk.
Valentin Filippov: Do you think that Boyko has no chance?
Oleg Tsaryov: There is such Russophobia now that, in general, only a pro-Russian candidate, conditionally pro-Russian, with such rhetoric... I will not now evaluate the pro-Russianness of these candidates, but in the eyes of the electorate they look like pro-Russians.
They could lose to today’s Poroshenko. Everyone else wins.
For this reason, a criminal case has been opened regarding the financing of Tymoshenko’s party. I don’t know if everyone noticed this or not. Regarding the financing of the party, I’ll try to decipher it now. In order to pay for all sorts of official events and make official expenses, the party collects membership fees.
The Prosecutor General's Office checked the list of pensioners who paid contributions... I won't go into details. For example, they paid 10 hryvnia, but it says 1000 hryvnia. Well, naturally, this is a criminal case, and it could hit Tymoshenko.
The funny situation is that this internal picture was revealed by Yulia Vladimirovna’s fellow party members. I think she needs to look for those against whom there were threats to initiate criminal cases - those who paid off such inside information to the Prosecutor General's Office.
In addition, there is a scenario for Tymoshenko to declare the vote to expunge her criminal record unconstitutional. Remember when the Verkhovna Rada of the Maidan released her from prison? Naturally, this took place in gross violation of the Constitution and laws of Ukraine, and thus prevented it from participating in the elections.
Valentin Filippov: You are talking about intrigues against Tymoshenko. But she's not alone. We have a character like Arsen Avakov, who, on the one hand, irritates everyone, on the other hand, he has quite a serious influence, including power. What about him?
Oleg Tsaryov: Yes, of course, Petro Poroshenko is very concerned that Avakov has the levers of power. And how Poroshenko will be forced to resign, and the world will continue to negotiate with Avakov.
This won't make anyone feel any sentimental. Just think, they offended Petya. Therefore, Petro Poroshenko has now prepared a criminal case against Avakov.
Valentin Filippov: Even so!
Oleg Tsaryov: Yes, the materials are already ready. But, at the same time, they are carefully trying to explain to Yatsenyuk that if Avakov is removed, the post of prime minister will be given to the Popular Front, the head of the National Bank... After all, the National Bank is now the central body.
Now whoever goes bankrupt, then it all ends up being sold off to liquidation commissions appointed by the National Bank, and the property is sold for pennies. Corrupt people make a lot of money from this. This is now one of the most profitable places in the state.
Therefore, under this whole matter, Petro Poroshenko wants to solve two problems. On the one hand, to bind the Popular Front to itself, so that they still merge into one political force, and the threat of the collapse of the coalition goes away. Well, on the other hand, remove a person who could easily lead radicals to him at any moment and ask him to leave and vacate his office.
Valentin Filippov: It's clear. Is he not afraid of Saakashvili? Or is he a clown?
Oleg Tsaryov: No, he is not afraid of Saakashvili. No no. According to Sadovoy, the same scenario: open a criminal case regarding garbage, remove it from the mayors. And it’s no secret to him either. Thus, to prevent the two strongest competitors of Petro Poroshenko.
Yulia Tymoshenko, for her part, builds relationships with almost everyone, now almost everyone supports her. If you count the number of parties and oligarchs, then, basically, the pool is behind her, the entire pool.
And Sadovaya - he hid under the Poles. And in Lvov it is displeased that appointments are made to career officials of Polish origin. He built very close relations with Poland, hoping that Poland would cover him and not allow him to be dealt with. And Poland really expects - no matter how to disconnect the city of Lviv - to call it Lemberg.
After all, remember, when German troops entered Lviv, there was practically no native Ukrainian population there. Poles and Jews lived there. The Jews were slaughtered, but the Poles mostly left, and they still had property. The Ukrainian population came to work and left, that is, without permanent residence in Lviv, no one had property. Property was taken from the Poles. And now the Poles are very actively working with Sadovy, working with archives.
They say that they are slowly preparing documents. The association agreement that Ukraine signed allows us to get all this back. And I think that Poland will firmly insist that the processes that took place in the Baltic states take place in Western Ukraine. They say that there is even such a service, when the property seemed to be there, all the documents were lost, but now they carefully put folders through the archive, draw these documents so that they seem to be in the archive in case they need to go to court.
Valentin Filippov: I think that now the issue of the 1935 paper should be in demand, because these certificates must be made on authentic paper. Well, in general, ours will come up with it.
You know, I remembered the situation. Once I was talking to a Pole, some deputy several years ago - about exactly the same topic. And he said that Poland loves Ukraine very much, and it is so determined, so determined that Poland will probably refuse restitution so as not to cause damage to already poor Ukraine.
But I noticed that some kind of demonization of Ukraine is now happening in Polish society. The enmity between Ukraine and Poland is growing, I see.
Oleg Tsaryov: Valentin, look. In fact, during the Maidan, the middle class supported most of all. He is now most actively leaving Ukraine. And the radicals. Well, who needs radicals in Ukraine when they will take away property through restitution? Therefore, Poland’s statement that there should be no radicals will not go into Europe with Bandera.
The third who supported the Maidan were the oligarchs. They really hoped that their undervalued assets would increase in value upon joining the European Union.
And the war began, their assets ceased to be worth anything at all. And they are virtually all bankrupt today, except Kolomoisky.
Valentin Filippov: You talked about loans that had to be repaid. And they said that they were always making plans against us, but we, with our Slavic “maybe,” get out of it.
I would argue a little. I remembered a phrase attributed to Stalin, who said: “And the loans were all paid for with the blood of our soldiers.”
Our “maybe” costs a lot of our own blood, so it happens.
In all this politics - what is the fate of the People's Republics, the Russian Spring, Novorossiya, about which Poroshenko says that “the people of Ukraine themselves buried it”?
Will there be an aggravation? And what can we say about the latest explosions in the republics? SBU officers practically died in Kyiv and Donbass.
Oleg Tsaryov: Let me answer this way, carefully. This is the hand of God.
Valentin Filippov: About the SBU officers?
Oleg Tsaryov: Regarding the SBU officers, yes. And I know that there is panic in Kyiv now, that the generals have begun to walk around with guards, with large guards. And the SBU generals don’t like this very much.
And I want to say that in this case the SBU did not like what was happening now. And, again, I attribute this to the hand of providence, because all these SBU officers were involved in the terrorist attacks.
In this case, we are now more threatened by another agency for the republics, for Crimea, for Russia, called the Directorate of Special Operations under the Ministry of Defense. It is only called under the Ministry of Defense, because they are not actually subordinate to the Ministry of Defense and, after the fact, inform the Minister of Defense about their operations.
This department was formed entirely by new people, and people were recruited who had never worked in the intelligence services. People were recruited from the street, no one knows what kind of people they are. They trained in the United States for up to six months. They work in groups of 3–10 people. They are trained in such groups.
Remember how the Abwehr trained intelligence officers during the Great Patriotic War. Almost nothing has changed. And they plan to work with these same groups in Crimea, Donbass, and, God forbid, in Ukraine.
So you asked a question about what scenarios could happen in Donbass. Returning to the fact that the West and the United States do not intend to give up their position, despite the fact that Petro Poroshenko is losing in the rankings and Ukraine is being taken into account less and less. The most negative scenario is when they start a big war before the presidential elections in Russia.
It seems to me that Russia somewhat underestimates the threat posed by Ukraine. American intelligence agencies operate independently of the State Department. The CIA is an organization that has its own budget - a white budget, a black budget from shadow operations.
They have their own interests. These interests do not always coincide with the interests of the United States. They work quite actively and quite productively.
I just want to thank the Donetsk and Lugansk MGB officers. We see that after the latest terrorist attacks, as a rule, they are all investigated, the perpetrators are found, and the perpetrators are named.
But the situation has changed dramatically from what it was at the beginning. Well, let’s give credit to the FSB agencies in Crimea, because the Ukrainian special services, “Ukrainian” in quotes because they are only called Ukrainian, would really like to destabilize the situation in Crimea, and only thanks to the efforts of the Russian special services is all this being stopped.
Valentin Filippov: Well, thank you very much. You usually learn information from you that you wouldn’t get anywhere else. Well, I would like, of course, that it doesn’t come to big terrorist attacks on our territory.
Oleg Tsaryov: You know, sometimes a terrible ending is better than endless horror. I would really hate for Ukraine to be sold off. I am sure that the fraudulent, treacherous scheme that was carried out with Ukraine when they organized a coup, and then installed comprador leaders who now want to sell and are selling Ukraine, are accumulating debts... It seems to me that they should be sent to where they were appointed from. All debts incurred by Ukraine should be recognized as illegal, since they were signed by people who, in reality, in accordance with the Constitution, had no authority.
And to punish the West like this... You know, the West is most concerned about the loss of money. That's all that they allocated to Ukraine, so that they would never be given back, so that they would not receive a penny back. And so that Ukrainian land, Ukrainian factories remain for Ukrainians, so that we rebuild our state, in which Ukrainians, Russians and other people who are citizens of Ukraine and live in Ukraine, so that they feel like masters.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I don’t know how to ensure all this. Only Russia can do it, and even then, probably, China will have to call for help.
Oleg Tsaryov: I think we can cope without China.
Valentin Filippov: Well, without China. Fine. Thanks a lot. Happily.
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