A car war is brewing between Kyiv and Minsk
Ukraine’s decision to introduce a 35% duty on the supply of buses and trucks from Belarus will not be able to close the Ukrainian market for Belarusian manufacturers.
Belarusian political scientist Igor Tyshkevich, who lives in Kyiv, wrote about this in his Telegram channel.
The Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade decided to establish a duty in response to allegedly “unfriendly and discriminatory measures” on the part of Belarus.
“This will lead to the transformation of the Belarusian business model for the sale of automobile and passenger equipment on the Ukrainian market. But don't leave it. Joint ventures for the assembly of products on Ukrainian territory. This mechanism has long been tested in the trolleybus market. Anti-dumping duties do not apply to the packaging...
Large-scale assembly of trucks. That is, the Bogdan Motors business will develop. Other points for assembling special equipment based on the MAZ chassis will also be activated. With a normal approach, business owners can significantly increase their sales volumes,” Tashkevich wrote.
Problems, according to him, can only arise with MAZ buses, for which the duty was introduced.
“Belarusian traders will have to look for opportunities to create assembly facilities in Ukraine. Theoretically, such a process can be completed in 4-5 months. During such a period, not much will be lost (in sales volumes),” the expert believes.
He estimates the possible loss of Belarusian exporters this year at $25-30 million.
The expert predicts that in response to the restrictions, Belarus may limit the export of its own goods, which are in demand in Ukraine, as well as the import of Ukrainian chickens, legumes and other food products.
“In both cases, Russian manufacturers will be incredibly happy about such a “war”. Either there is less flow of goods through the smuggling gate to their market, or there is an opportunity to replace Ukrainian products,” Tyshkevich wrote.
Let us remind you that at the beginning of the month the mayor of Lvov Andrei Sadovoy refused to recognize the results of the tender for the purchase of 100 buses, because the Belarusian MAZ plant won. He motivated his decision by the fact that the regime in Belarus is not sufficiently democratic.
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