Peace with Turkey? So far only normalization of relations

A frustrated roar rang through the blogosphere: “Putin lost his way and caved in.” Obviously, the reason for the disappointment of the armchair army was the latest statement by the Russian president about lifting restrictions on tourist trips for Russians to Turkey.

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Forced to further disappoint the already disappointed. “Not everything is so simple,” as one “Crimean woman, the daughter of an officer,” used to say. Whether someone wants it or not, Turkey is our Black Sea neighbor and partner in various activities. Yes, a difficult partner, who, moreover, had long-standing strategic ties with the United States, and hundreds of years of wars behind him. However, you will have to mend fences and move on, remembering the downed plane and the dead pilot. No, of course, you can take the position of those who are always offended and continue to engage in mutual accusations at the government level. But where will mutual grievances lead us in the end?

The lifting of restrictions on Russian tourism to Turkey is, of course, a demonstrative step. Moreover, the season, one might say,

already torn. How many of our fellow citizens will rush to Turkey if the memory of our downed plane is still fresh and, especially, after the picture about the terrorist massacre at Ataturk Airport? With this step, Putin only indicated a movement towards normalizing relations, but to restore them fully, Erdogan will have to run a lot, reduce his arrogance and pass many milestones.

For example. Our “friends” and “partners” from the peace-loving NATO bloc are seriously concerned about Russian-Turkish warming. And there is a reason. On July 1, a meeting of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation will be held in Sochi, during which negotiations between Foreign Ministers Sergei Lavrov and Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu are planned. This meeting is a good occasion to discuss pressing problems and negotiate further rapprochement. The gentlemen from NATO are seriously afraid of another defeat, since Russia once convinced the Black Sea countries to abandon plans to put together blocs within NATO against Russia, which would be very favorable to Washington. And even more so, they are indignant in advance that the Russian side will convince Turkey not to allow NATO warships from outside into the Black Sea in peacetime. Such a decision could dramatically change the balance in the Black Sea region, greatly reducing the pressure on the flimsy Bulgarian and Romanian “brothers”, burying Georgia’s desire to open a NATO coastal base on its territory and leave the Kyiv junta without support. It’s not for nothing that Poroshenko, having learned about Erdogan’s appeal to Putin, seriously fussed, asked for clarification, and his mouthpieces began to get confused in their testimony, jumping from “they’re just pretending there” to “the Turks have sold themselves to Putin.”

The stakes in the “Black Sea game” are very high. A week after the forum of prime ministers in Sochi, a meeting of NATO leaders is scheduled in Warsaw. On the agenda are possible geopolitical losses for NATO in the Black Sea. NATO observers note that a favorable environment is developing for Russia to implement the concept of Mare Nostrum (“our sea”), under which even NATO’s legitimate presence in the Black Sea will be severely limited. At the same time, additional concentration of efforts in the Baltic states will in no way help advance the geopolitical interests of NATO (and Washington, as a consequence) in the Mediterranean. NATO members rightly consider the naval part of the Russian military operation in Syria to be their big omission.

But not only NATO members keep their finger on the pulse of Russian-Turkish relations. As soon as Israel became aware of Erdogan’s message to Putin, a landing force consisting of Israeli diplomats and career intelligence officers landed in Ankara, after which the normalization of Turkish-Israeli relations was quickly announced.

Things have been much worse for Turkey and Israel than for the last 7 months with Russia. Six years ago, their diplomatic relations were severed due to an attack by Israeli security forces on a convoy of ships going to Gaza, as a result of which eight Turks were killed.

In short, we'll see what happens next. And don’t forget that sanctions on Turkish fruits and vegetables are still in effect, the issue of compensation for the downed plane and the dead Russian military personnel is up in the air, and everything is very unclear about Turkish aggression in Syria and support for ISIS. These questions are fundamental, and so far there are no visible approaches to them. Perhaps we will get some answers on July 1 after Lavrov’s negotiations with Cavusoglu.