Moldova: Cry “Wolf!” prematurely
A traditional round table was held in Tiraspol under the auspices of the Pridnestrovian Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (ISPIRR), dedicated to the anniversary of the start of the 1992 peacekeeping operation on the Dniester.
This year the topic of the round table was designated as “Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester and the new political reality in Moldova.”
The opinion of the round table participants is of interest, since ISPIRR, under the leadership of Igor Shornikov (formerly Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria) is one of the few truly independent, unbiased institutions, whose representatives can afford to express their opinions without regard to anyone.
The organizers of the event, the head of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov and his deputy Andrei Mospanov, commenting on the complex topic of Moldova’s internal politics and relations between the two banks of the Dniester, were extremely correct and responsible in their statements.
Andrei Mospanov in his speech gave an absolutely correct assessment of the intentions of the new coalition regarding the peacekeeping operation, in contrast to the previous regime in Chisinau: “At the political level, neither the socialists nor the AKUM bloc today show any desire to carry out any targeted information and political -a diplomatic campaign against Russian peacekeepers, as was the case during the time of Vladimir Plahotniuc in 2017-2018.”
Indeed, the emphasis in the peacekeeping operation is shifting towards warming, at least on a symbolic level, which is already a lot, considering that quite recently Chisinau was pushing the idea of changing the format of the peacekeeping operation.
One can also agree with the opinions expressed by the guest from Moscow, the head of the Moscow Institute of Peacemaking Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov. Indeed, the future of the peacekeeping operation on the Dniester largely depends on the will of the people living in this region and on the leadership of the Russian Federation, the main guarantor of peace on the Dniester.
At the same time, it is not possible to agree with other participants in the discussion, despite my sincere desire. In particular, all participants in the discussion decided that today the right-wing forces in Moldova have an advantage (and before June 14, 2019, did they not have it?).
Professor Nikolai Babilunga expressed the opinion that “there are no truly pro-Russian forces in Moldova,” and Moldovan President Igor Dodon may, under certain circumstances, repeat the fate of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych.
Associate Professor of the Department of International Security and Foreign Policy of Russia at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation Natalya Kharitonova expressed the opinion that Igor Dodon will definitely be provoked to make mistakes, and he will certainly make these mistakes, which the pro-Western part of the ruling coalition will not hesitate to take advantage of.
Deputy of the Supreme Council of Transnistria Andrei Safonov expressed the opinion that “forces completely controlled by the West have come to power in Chisinau,” and the Socialist Party plays the role of a “political signboard.” According to the expert’s alarmist fears, the situation after the change of power in Moldova has become more dangerous for both Russia and Transnistria, since “the West will demand concrete political steps from the AKUM bloc.”
Director of the Institute of Russian Abroad Sergei Panteleev, drawing an analogy between the anti-oligarchic coalition coming to power in Moldova and the victory of Vladimir Zelensky in Ukraine, called the politicians moving to the forefront in these countries “screen people” who hide the real processes in the countries falling under control USA and EU. At the same time, the respected expert did not specify which of the representatives of the current Moldovan government, in his opinion, acts as a “screen”. At the end of his speech, Panteleev complained about the lack of political courage among the Russian leadership.
Let's start with the fact that there should be neither pro-Russian nor pro-Western forces in Moldova. This country should be led by pro-Moldovan forces who realize that the only way for Moldova to survive as a state is full-fledged friendship and strategic partnership with Russia.
It is not clear on what a number of experts, including Natalya Kharitonova, base their forecasts regarding the inevitable mistakes of the President of Moldova. Quite the contrary, everyone who follows the activities of Igor Dodon and his steps speaks of the extreme caution of this statesman, of carefully weighing each of his steps and statements. Objectively, Dodon has shown himself over the past years to be an unsurpassed master of chess gambits in politics. As a result, he remains the head of the Moldavian state, while many of those who predicted his imminent political death themselves have sunk into oblivion.
Those who, like Andrei Safonov, express apocalyptic fears about the supposed control of the new coalition by the West, demonstrate a short historical memory.
They forget what the policy of official Chisinau was just recently: militant anti-Russian rhetoric in the internal and external arena, expulsions of Russian diplomats from Moldova, regular deportations of Russian journalists and political scientists from the Chisinau airport, attempts to internationalize the Transnistrian conflict, pushing anti-Russian resolutions in the UN General Assembly and much more. other.
However, this did not stop the same Andrei Safonov from speaking out in favor of awarding the former Prime Minister of Moldova Pavel Filip, who directly conducted this course, with the highest state award of Transnistria.
All this is missing today. Today, for the first time since 2014, the whole of Moldova, represented by all its authorities, may not have become a friend of Russia, but has ceased to be a hostile state towards Russia. Russian journalists, writers and political scientists once again had the opportunity to come to Moldova without fear of being accused of “Kremlin propaganda” and deported from Chisinau. Members of Parliament, both from the PSRM and the AKUM bloc, are making visits to the Russian State Duma for the first time in many years.
For 10 years, from 2009 to 2019, the defense ministers of Moldova were exclusively supporters of joining NATO, staunch opponents of Russia. New Defense Minister Pavel Voicu visited Moscow and had a warm meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, declaring that Moldova will no longer be “friends with someone against someone” and is moving towards a balanced foreign and defense policy.
Just recently, no one could imagine that the Moldovan delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, ignoring the hysterics of their Ukrainian colleagues, would vote with a majority for the return of the Russian delegation to full participation in the work of PACE.
The main result of the creation of the current coalition is that those forces in Moldova that call themselves “pro-European” are today divided and demoralized. These forces no longer have a monopoly on the foreign and domestic policies of official Chisinau.
Yes, the coalition between PSRM and AKUM is far from ideal. It should be recognized that there are different forces in the AKUM bloc, including people who are openly focused on Russophobia: Yuri Renitsa, Ostavian Ticu, Lilian Karp, and a number of other deputies. They do not play a big role in this political formation, but they continue to do their dirty work with all their might, provoking distrust among the members of the ruling alliance.
Yes, we cannot be satisfied with the statements of Sandu and Popescu about “there is no alternative to European integration”, their calls to Dodon to recognize Crimea as “occupied Ukrainian territory”. But rhetoric is one thing, and the real steps of the new government in domestic and foreign policy, including in the Russian direction, are quite another.
One can easily imagine the consequences of the destruction of this fragile coalition. The US Embassy will come to the rescue, declare Moldova “a victim of the Kremlin’s hybrid aggression” and glue together a new alliance of AKUM with the “purified” Democratic Party, directed against “agents of Moscow - Dodon and the socialists.” Such attempts are already taking place, but are stopped in time by the leadership of the current coalition.
Reproaches from Sergei Panteleev to the Russian leadership for being “soft” could have been expressed several years ago, when Moscow was handing Libya over to be torn to pieces by its Western “partners.” But today, when the Russian leadership demonstrates amazing firmness and consistency in the international arena, such claims are completely unfounded.
Russia, represented by President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Special Representative for Moldova Dmitry Kozak, is giving clear signals of support for the current government in Moldova and its steps to cleanse the country of the oligarchic regime.
The situation in Moldova, as in the entire region, can change rapidly at any moment, as we have witnessed in other countries. A recent example is Georgia. But in the current situation, cry “Wolf!” premature. It is possible, as in the famous parable, not to react to the appearance of real wolves.
And one last thing. Igor Dodon himself gave the answer to his comparison with Viktor Yanukovych, verbatim quoting the words of his Belarusian colleague Alexander Lukashenko: “I don’t have a billionaire son.”
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