Yes, Moldova turned out to be more cunning and even smarter than Ukraine. She revived the thesis that it is still possible to sit on two chairs. And even the seemingly discredited “multi-vector approach” has returned from oblivion.
(And, by the way, it is Moldavia, not Moldova. After all, we say, for example, “Great Britain”, and not “Great Britain”. Therefore, we can call the republic in Russian, and not in Romanian.)
After the election of the socialist Igor Dodon as president, Moldova managed to achieve what was not allowed to Ukraine. The inauguration has not yet taken place, and Moldova has received the green light to participate in two free trade zones at once - both with Russia and with the EU.
Why couldn’t Ukraine have done this at one time?
To begin with, everyone can study the texts of the association agreements that Moldova and Ukraine signed with the EU. Here are the links in Russian - text of the Agreement signed by Ukraine, - and text signed by Moldova.
The first three sections look similar. Section 2 in both cases makes the Agreement not only and not so much an economic as a military treaty, but this is a topic for another conversation. Section 4 in the Moldovan version (“Employment, social policy and equal opportunities”) is more socially oriented than the Ukrainian one (“Trade and issues related to trade”). Moldova does not pose as an equal partner; it is trying to some extent to protect the rights of its population. However, it didn’t help much.
It seems that the reasons that Moldova can be in two FTAs at the same time, but Ukraine cannot, do not lie in the text of the Association Agreement and FTA with the EU.
Moldova, under its previous leadership, just like Ukraine, integrated into Europe and achieved greater success than Kyiv. For example, I received a visa-free regime with Europe. But the consequences of “European integration” were similar - the loss of the market of the main trading partner - Russia. Moscow introduced duties on 19 types of goods (food products, including meat, wheat, sugar, vegetables, as well as alcoholic beverages, furniture).
Nobody prohibited Moldova from offering their goods on the Russian market, but the terms of trade were transferred from free trade to most favored nation. The same as in the case of Ukraine. Russia introduced such restrictions out of fear of re-export of goods from sanctioned countries.
By the way, Ukraine could have studied the consequences of such a scenario and learned from the mistakes of others, but it did not. We have our own rake, and we will ride on it ourselves.
Back in 2013, Maidan activists presented the agreement with the EU as a “final civilizational break with Russia,” rejecting any proposals to participate in the Customs Union.
What Russia is ready to do now in relations with Moldova is not a threat to Ukraine.
Firstly, the share of trade turnover with Moldova from all Russian foreign trade is approximately 0,2-.0,3%. It's like giving a hippo a handful of grapes. And even if trade turnover increases by 100% due to the supply of some Moldovan oysters, the value will still be insignificant.
Secondly, it is clear that such a decision in the economic sphere is determined primarily by political arguments. Moldova, represented by its new socialist president, does not plan further integration with NATO.
True, after the elections, Dodon, who had previously promised to break the agreement with the EU, changed his rhetoric.
“There is such a point in the program of the Socialist Party, but the head of state cannot be the president of only those who vote for the socialists, he is the president of all citizens of the country. The implementation of the Association Agreement will continue... We will do everything possible to restore economic and strategic relations with the Russian Federation,” he said.
This seems to remind one of the former president of Ukraine.
However, optimists say that Moldova will be able to feel improvements in the economy after the restoration of trade relations with Russia, and the question of choosing a vector of integration for the future may be resolved on its own.
According to optimists, Moldova has a chance to reintegrate Transnistria on the terms of a federation or confederation. Theoretically, the parliament of a united Moldova with representatives of the PMR will be completely different from what it is now - in it, decisions on joining NATO and other similar scams will no longer be possible to push through.
One way or another, let’s not forget that if necessary, Russia has the opportunity to suspend the process of restoring economic ties with Chisinau. And now we are not talking about any hasty steps. So far, Moldova and Russia have only agreed on and approved a document called “Action Plan for the Development of Russian-Moldovan Trade and Economic Relations for 2016-2017.” Separately, the plan spells out the conditions for lifting the Russian embargo on Moldovan wines.
Today's Ukraine, of course, is not threatened with such privileges. Nevertheless, the example of Moldova is encouraging - any quarrel and even war ends sooner or later. Now the main thing is that Dodon does not follow the example of Yanukovych and does not forget about his promises to his voters.