Moldova. Race along the Ukrainian rake
The political crisis in Moldova has not subsided for more than 10 years. Endless snap elections give no party a 51% advantage, and any coalitions prove short-lived. Populist statements and impossible promises are being replaced by inciting ethnic confrontations and bans on the Russian language.
Today, newly elected President Maia Sandu is making efforts for another extraordinary dissolution of parliament. However, there is a risk that in the event of re-election, her party will find itself in the minority and will not find partners to create a coalition majority.
Chisinau political strategist Jan Lisnevsky told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that the instability of Moldova’s system is the basis for political provocations and external interference.
The editors are publishing this interview after some controversy. For example, we were confused by the expert’s passage about the artificiality of the problem of the Russian language and geopolitical choice (we’ve already heard this somewhere - wasn’t that how the South-East in Ukraine was “lulled” until 2014?). However, we present Lisnevsky’s opinion so that the reader has an idea of the mood in that part of the Chisinau political “mainstream” that, diplomatically speaking, is “ready for dialogue” with Moscow, but, nevertheless, it is hardly worth considering it as pro-Russian .
Valentin Filippov: Our virtual studio is located in the sunny city of Chisinau. Let me remind you that in early February, it was at the airport of this city that a Russian diplomat was robbed of 60 thousand dollars, citing the fact that he had not declared the amount upon departure. They promise to return the money if it is proven that it was obtained legally. Is it really true that immunity no longer applies to Russian diplomats in Moldova?
Jan Lisniewski: Yes indeed. The diplomat is not searched directly there; they have certain privileges. Here, most likely, there was a “leaking” of information and a demonstrative execution of a certain diplomat.
Valentin Filippov: Did Russia lose to Moldova?
Jan Lisniewski: It is impossible to say at the moment whether one side or the other side won geopolitically. Because people, in fact, are predisposed towards European countries, not only the European Union, but also towards cooperation with Russia.
The problem is the politicians who divide our society. Politicians, unfortunately, are based, so to speak, on emotional campaigns or geopolitical ones. The right constantly says that they are for European integration, although, I can tell you, in about 90% of cases they are far from European integration or from European parties.
The left is trying to be more diplomatic at the moment. They do not refuse cooperation with European countries, but are more in favor of relations with Russia, or with post-Soviet countries, for example, Belarus. And on this wave, our politicians are trying to divide society.
They attach importance to some problems that, in fact, are not problems.
The same question with the Russian language. Because language in developed countries is a mechanism of communication. The main thing is to be human and communicate. It doesn’t matter what language you do it in, Russian, Romanian or German, English. The main thing is to respect the interlocutor, and to speak, if possible, in the language he speaks.
Politicians, when they cannot solve their problems or fulfill their electoral promises, begin to impose national problems and language problems on us so that people have something to do.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t know at what level of hysteria this issue is in Moldova. But I know how this happens in Ukraine. This did not happen in one day. And today we know that in Ukraine, and I think that in Moldova, there is something similar, when Russian artists are not allowed, theaters, films are prohibited, books are prohibited.
And I understand perfectly why this happens. The formation of a nation is an attempt to cut off from the common cultural information space. And in Moldova it’s the same “garbage”, by and large. They took it for themselves and crossed out Russian. The Constitutional Court says: “Yes, everything is correct.”
Jan Lisniewski: We cooperate with some experts from the United States and even from Romania. These experts are more loyal to pro-European principles.
And one of the United States experts clearly said that, in fact, the stupidity is that many small politicians in small states, in order to please the United States or the European Union, begin to do stupid things, thinking that they are somehow... they will attract attention. The language problem is one of these nonsense, when they try to ban, somehow assert that there is only one language, and so on, and so on. Because this does not happen in developed countries. There are countries where there are several languages; they speak German, Italian, and French. And they don't have this problem because they understand that we actually need to develop culturally. And we cannot ignore the culture of large countries that have vast experience, including Russia.
Valentin Filippov: You are talking about strong, established countries that have taken shape. And a small developing country, which, I don’t want to offend anyone, does not have much experience of statehood in its history, it is difficult for it to form a nation and, moreover, a nation of a certain orientation.
And if a significant part of Moldovan society feels like an integral part of Russian culture, Russian culture, Soviet, imperial...
From the point of view of forming a separate nation that is oriented towards the West, it is quite reasonable to ban the Russian language and fight with the Russians. It's mean-spirited, cynical, but it makes sense from a cold political point of view.
Jan Lisniewski: In Moldova, in fact, this is exactly the problem. We were constantly looking for enemies. Every politician, every member of the opposition came, and he had an enemy. It was first Voronin, then Plahotniuc, it was Dodon, now it will become Maia Sandu and so on.
The primitiveness of the political strategy is precisely what destroys the Republic of Moldova, because these politicians, apart from creating some kind of enemy, they do not create anything.
We are now in a political war. Literally since 2009, the Republic of Moldova has been in a state of crisis, when we have elections every year. With a country that is constantly in elections, which does not have a government, no foreign institutions or other states conduct diplomatic negotiations. This is the golden rule.
There is nothing to negotiate with a country in which elections are held and a government has not been formed. And, unfortunately, our politicians are misleading all citizens with the idea that early elections can change something, or the coming to power of another party can change something.
The problem is that in the next parliament they will have to negotiate. Left, right, center. In our country, unfortunately, it is impossible for one party to get a 51% majority in order to achieve full power. And with their quarrels, making each other enemies, they, unfortunately, divide society. And then, when they come to parliament, they cannot simply conduct a normal dialogue.
Valentin Filippov: So, when will the “Princess of the State Department” Maia Sandu become everyone’s enemy? Or has she already gone down this path?
Jan Lisniewski: In our country, as soon as a politician achieves a certain power, he begins to decline. This happens to Maia Sandu. This also happened in 2019, when she became prime minister. If you remember, Maia Sandu’s rating then also began to go down sharply. Therefore, she did everything possible to go back into opposition. It took her five months to do this. Because it didn’t work out on the first try; even her own electorate didn’t support her. And on her second attempt with the election of the Prosecutor General, she succeeded.
Now Maia Sandu literally has the same problem. She is the president, and with limited capabilities. So you understand, in 2019, Maia Sandu had full power, she was the prime minister. Our prime minister is a much more important figure than the president.
The president is, say, a diplomat who travels all the time and negotiates on behalf of the government with other countries. And now she understands that she needs early elections in order to at least approve a certain balance in the number of deputies. She will get rid of Andrei Nastase. In 2019, they walked together in the block.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, yes, yes, I remember. I learned this name for a long time.
Jan Lisniewski: Actually, even then I said that they are real competitors. These are the biggest enemies among themselves, despite the fact that they said that Plahotniuc and Dodon are enemies. And this was confirmed. Maia Sandu took away almost all the political potential from Andrei Năstase, who is now left with 2-3%. And it needs to be approved by their own deputies, with whom they will continue to fight.
Because in all likelihood, the Socialist Party, the Shor Party and the party of Rinat Usatii will enter the next parliament. And, again, in these conditions, she has no one to form a bloc with, that is, an alliance, to gain a majority.
Valentin Filippov: I mean, wait. Will there be four games?
Jan Lisniewski: We have an ongoing political conflict. The crisis will not end. Maia Sandu cannot reach an agreement with any of these parties.
Valentin Filippov: Everything is stable. The crisis remains as it was.
And the fact that she always nominates the same person as prime minister, who is not confirmed, is this a technology to dissolve parliament?
Jan Lisniewski: Yes. They went this route. Legislatively, it was necessary not to approve the candidate for the post of prime minister. For this, Maia Sandu did quite the right thing; she nominated a candidate so that he would not be voted out, in order to go to early elections.
The problem is that at least visually it was necessary to present this group of ministers - good candidates. Or just come out and say: “Guys, we didn’t prepare the program, we’re not prepared.” Be sincere with citizens. So don't vote for us.
And what we have is that Gavrilitsa comes out and declares that it is an honor for her, and that she can change the situation in the Republic of Moldova, that she has an anti-crisis program, anti-crisis ministers who can do this. On the other hand, Maia Sandu says that she will not. That is, it’s a paradox: the minister himself wants people to vote for him and is trying to prove it, Maia Sandu and her party don’t want it, they say it’s a sham.
Valentin Filippov: They put it forward themselves and say that this is a sham?
Jan Lisniewski: Yes, they themselves said that this is a fake ministry. But the ministers say something completely different. There is a paradox here.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe these ministers should create another fifth party?
Jan Lisniewski: Here everyone is playing their own theater, because the ministers and Mrs. Gavrilitsa understand that if they come out and simply say that this is a sham, we just want to spend 114 million on elections, people may condemn this theater. And they are trying to impose the idea that they have a solution.
In fact, the whole problem here is that all the candidates, except one, by the way, began to make promises during the election campaign. As politicians usually do, they lie a little.
Valentin Filippov: God grant that there is a little truth there.
Jan Lisniewski: Yes. And, unfortunately, it turned out that there was no truth at all. All candidates began talking about early elections, although they initially understood that the president did not have the authority to dissolve parliament. This was a lie from the start. But it was imposed on people because people need to be promised something. Therefore, early elections were imposed on people.
The candidates talked about some salaries, some pensions, although the president has absolutely nothing to do with this. This is what the government approves. And any candidate who would become president would face these problems that Maia Sandu faced.
And Maia Sandu got bogged down in her own electoral promises. And instead of explaining to people that this was an election campaign, let’s look at what early elections can lead to, whether we need these early elections... We need a government. Moreover, there is an economic crisis, a pandemic and also a political crisis.
Valentin Filippov: Stability.
Jan Lisniewski: Yes, stability and no government. There is no one to negotiate with someone, receive grants, loans, and so on.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe that's good.
Jan Lisniewski: How good is that? Practice shows that this protracted crisis can subsequently be resolved within 5-6 years. Even if Maia Sandu receives full power after everything that happens, it turns out that we will not have a government for a whole year if there are early elections.
Valentin Filippov: Elections are an expensive business. There is no money in Moldova. It is absolutely clear that all this is fueled from somewhere from external sources. That is, after all, external players somehow participate in Moldovan politics. What position should Russia take?
Jan Lisniewski: The fact that external factors influence, and they exist, is yes. Both on the one hand and on the other. The influence of the European Union, the United States, and also Russia. The problem, most likely, is that Russia is trying not to greatly influence and interfere in the internal politics of the Republic of Moldova. She can intervene with the support of a certain party by declaring that this party is much better because it is for bilateral relations. There is no longer any strong influence here. By the way, during the election campaign, the socialists turned to Russian experts. But, again, here I want to say that the expert has no nationality.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I agree here. Russian political strategists, they manage to work very well against Russia.
Jan Lisniewski: So this can’t exactly be called influence from Russia. As for the influence from the United States and the European Union, here it is more significant. Because there are grants that feed non-governmental organizations. And a lot has already been said about this. A large infusion of money that goes to no one knows where.
Unfortunately, Russia does not have such grants to support any projects. Moreover, the European Union openly even gives certain loans, of which they say that 40% or 60% should go to the development of public organizations. And, again, this money is received not by the country, but by certain groups of people, interest groups. Non-governmental organizations perform certain, let's say, tasks. Everyone knows this.
In addition, here I want to return again to the fact that Maia Sandu elected not only members of her party, but also several representatives of NGOs to the Security Council.
Valentin Filippov: Soros.
Jan Lisniewski: Yes. And how can you talk about national security when there are people on the council who receive funding from another country. And it doesn’t matter whether it’s the European Union, Russia or the United States.
Valentin Filippov: On the one hand, it is not important. But, on the other hand, they don’t pay from Russia, they don’t buy members of the Security Council of Moldova.
Jan Lisniewski: In addition, we really feel geopolitical influence, an attempt to create an anti-Russian axis. It seems to me that this is the most dangerous thing for the Republic of Moldova. Because Moldova has always said that it wants to be diplomatic with all states: with its neighbors, and with Russia, and with the United States, and so on. But, on the other hand, we see how they are trying to impose this Romania-Moldova-Ukraine axis on us. And this is fraught with the fact that there is Transnistria on our territory. And none of the citizens, I am ready to guarantee that 90-95% of people who think rationally do not want an armed conflict in the country. They understand that given three crises: the pandemic, the economic and political crises, we simply cannot withstand the conflict.
That is, this state will cease to exist.
Valentin Filippov: They also said the same about Ukraine. I couldn’t imagine Ukrainians at war at all. I thought that it would all end in moonshine and lard anyway.
Jan Lisniewski: Ukraine is a fairly large state.
Valentin Filippov: It seems so to you from Moldova.
Jan Lisniewski: Yes, maybe I'm wrong, but it's better not to risk it. In addition, even I will return again to American experts who are also involved in consultations and there are two opinions there. But they all say: “Yes, perhaps the United States or certain political groups support one politician in the country or another. But, in fact, cooperation with the country is carried out at the state level, that is, at the government level. It doesn't matter who is there. Dodon or Maia Sandu. We will look for opportunities to collaborate with them.” And these statements, unfortunately, are not heard in the Republic of Moldova. Moldovans do not understand that for the United States or for the European Union, in fact, it does not matter at all who is president.
Valentin Filippov: The main thing is that he does what he is told.
Jan Lisniewski: The main thing is that he is a politician with whom you can come to an agreement. Again, we return to diplomacy. They say that big countries can be strong. They may have an army, they may have military equipment, and they can take by force.
Small countries must find a diplomatic approach, a cunning approach. That is, we, unfortunately, do not have this. Attempts to please a certain side, geopolitical or otherwise, are fraught with big problems for us.
This happened in 2019. You remember very well when the Democratic Party adopted such an ardent anti-Russian policy, and we saw how Russia intervened with the help of the European Union. The European Union, together with Russia and the United States, has eliminated this problem for Russia.
And another thing people don’t understand is that internal politics is not important for large countries. That is, when they ask me what we can do, I say: “Look - only Nord Stream 2.” European economists have calculated its cost to be up to 50 trillion euros. Then they got lost and couldn’t count. If there is a 50 trillion dollar question between Russia and Germany, no one will ask whether Moldova exists or does not exist.”
And therefore, naturally, there will be interventions in certain cases. And maybe this will be said loudly, but internal local politicians have not yet grown up, so it is even possible that there is a need for intervention by European countries, Russia, the United States in order to give a cultural understanding of what politics is.
At this level, please intervene, show how it should be done, give advice. Because, unfortunately, our local politicians no longer know how to do anything other than election shows. Since 2010 we have been in the election campaign.
Valentin Filippov: Familiar bullshit.
Jan Lisniewski: Even today, it seems like we don’t have elections, but all the politicians are engaged in the election campaign. Our election campaigns do not end.
Valentin Filippov: I must say that you underestimate yourself. Moldova is a very strong country. She just doesn't know what her strength is. We know this from the outside. Its strength is hospitality, and I think that sooner or later Moldovan politicians will realize this.
Jan Lisniewski: We hope so too.
Valentin Filippov: Thank you very much. Even I'm confused. I can imagine how confused those who listen to this will be. But, in principle, there is nothing complicated.
Jan Lisniewski: Sometimes the most complex problems are solved by simple actions.
Valentin Filippov: I truly wish Moldova prosperity. I love Moldova very much, I have been to Moldova a lot, to Moldova, as they say now. For me it is still Moldova. I am very sorry, of course, that once I could take the train in Odessa and go to Chisinau. Of course, these borders have been fenced off, it’s kind of terrible. Why was this necessary? If you remember, when they were breaking up the Union, they said: “There will be no borders. This is a purely economic issue to make it easier to manage. But there are no borders, no documents.”
Jan Lisniewski: Those times don’t exist.
Valentin Filippov: Unfortunately. Thanks a lot. Good luck getting out of the crisis.
Jan Lisniewski: And thank you.
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