Moldovan parliamentary elections: the battle for the diaspora
Moldova is tensely deciding how many foreign polling stations there will be in the parliamentary elections on July 11. Last week was marked by protests regarding the decisions of the Central Election Commission in this regard, and the matter reached the courts.
There is a battle for the diaspora. If in the Moldovan presidential elections of 2020 139 polling stations were opened abroad, now the CEC has opened 146 polling stations, however, this was not enough for several election participants, and they demanded through the court to increase their number to 190. The pro-presidential party “Action and solidarity" - PAS (the more ballots are sent to Europe, where hundreds of thousands of Moldovan guest workers live and work, the greater the percentage of the total votes PAS will receive), as well as the DA Platform, the Renato Usatii bloc, Democracy at Home and the Alliance for the unification of Romanians" (AUR).
On June 17, the Chisinau Appeals Chamber partially accepted the claims of election competitors against the Central Election Commission and ordered it to increase the number of polling stations for the diaspora.
At the same time, there are calls in Moldova to prohibit residents of Transnistria with Moldovan citizenship from voting in the upcoming elections (who, as some people think, always vote incorrectly) and even to make changes to the legislation in this regard.
The director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Igor Shornikov, comments on the situation in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: The Central Election Commission increased the number of polling stations abroad for the early parliamentary elections from 139 to 146. Why do right-wing parties believe that this is still not enough - after all, most of the polling stations are already accumulated in Europe, where the Moldovan diaspora traditionally votes for the right?
Igor Shornikov: The West, in the person of Maia Sandu and her political formation, has been leading to the current elections for more than five years, and therefore they have no right to fail. If, as a result of early parliamentary elections, they are unable to create their own government, then some of the Western scenarios that are currently being implemented in the post-Soviet space will be suspended or adjusted. This, in particular, can be attributed to the prospects for maintaining the Russian military presence on the Dniester and the prospects for Euro-Atlantic integration of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia.
The last year as a whole can be considered very successful for the right. They, with the support of some diplomats from Western embassies, carried out a grueling internal political marathon, which brought them very close to victory. However, now, in the last hundred meters, some problems are emerging. The personal rating of Maia Sandu, and therefore her political formation, has been slowly decreasing for many weeks, and the socialists, after creating an electoral bloc with the communists, seem to be gaining ground under their feet. There is no clear victory. Therefore, the battle is literally for every voter. This also applies to increasing polling stations for the Western European diaspora and reducing the number of polling stations for Pridnestrovians.
In the 2020 presidential elections, the Western diaspora provided Maia Sandu with a 15% lead over Igor Dodon. Apparently, current public opinion measurements, which are constantly carried out in Moldova, show that the support of the diaspora may be insufficient.
PolitNavigator: In the 2020 presidential elections, there was sluggish voting among Moldovan citizens in Russia. Some experts assumed that the Moldovan diaspora, which failed to turn out in the Russian Federation, after a series of events could still become a resource for electoral growth for Igor Dodon. Have any bugs been fixed?
Igor Shornikov: The Moldovan diaspora in Russia does not have such clear coordination of actions on the part of the authorities of the host state, as happened in some European countries. The most the left can hope for is the assistance of local authorities in Russia in expanding the capacity of polling stations. Because in the last elections, as observers note, many Moldovan voters, at the sight of huge queues, simply abandoned the idea of voting and left. But to assist the Russian authorities, we need, first of all, an initiative from the Moldovan embassy. So far we have not seen such initiatives.
In addition, the resource of the Moldovan diaspora in Russia is no longer so high. If, for example, 10 years ago more than 500 thousand Moldovan guest workers worked in Russia, now this figure, according to some estimates, has dropped to 200 thousand.
PolitNavigator: How might the requirement for migrants without citizenship or residence permits to leave the Russian Federation affect turnout in Russia? This also applies to 56 thousand citizens of Moldova.
This deadline was once again extended. Some believed that this measure could help increase the number of voters who would be able to vote in Moldova. At the expense of those who left. In general, in my opinion, this measure will not affect the number of voters in Russia due to the low capacity of polling stations.
PolitNavigator: Question regarding voting by residents of Transnistria. There have been calls from a number of politicians to ban “hostile” Pridnestrovians from participating in the July 11 elections. The idea of depriving Moldovan citizens living in Transnistria of the right to vote is also being promoted in a number of media outlets. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Olga Cebotari was even forced to comment on the situation, calling for the abandonment of “discriminatory approaches.” Are there possible attempts to block the access of Transnistrian residents to the plots, as has happened before?
Igor Shornikov: Judging by the intensity of passions and the impunity of those who tried to prevent Pridnestrovians from voting in the last elections, incidents will not occur now. At the request of the right, two polling stations in Bendery and one in the village of Korzhevo will not be open, which means they have already managed to reduce the number of Pridnestrovians who could vote. This especially applies to polling stations in Bendery, where excesses involving Pridnestrovians not being allowed to vote could be excluded.
A situation where citizens are divided into full-fledged and incomplete, based on their political beliefs, is unacceptable and dangerous. Lately we have seen that the lessons of 1992 are being forgotten by the political class of Moldova. Increasingly, from the right flank we hear slogans reminiscent of the extremists of the Popular Front, who once unleashed a civil conflict in the republic.
PolitNavigator: Moldovan parties do not have the opportunity to conduct election campaigning in Transnistria, how serious is this problem for the expression of the will of local residents?
Igor Shornikov: In general, Pridnestrovians are only occasionally interested in Moldovan politics and do not follow the intricacies of the internal struggle in the Republic of Moldova. Nevertheless, the residents of Transnistria understand well what the Moldovan political establishment is like, and they can well decide on their preferences. This especially applies to those who are willing to spend several hours of their time in order to vote for one or another party. And this is about 15% of the number of potential voters living in Transnistria.
In addition, election campaigning in one form or another still reaches potential Pridnestrovian voters - through the Internet and social networks. The fact that Moldovan parties cannot display advertising banners on the streets of Transnistrian cities and villages and cannot fill the mailboxes of Pridnestrovians with their printed materials cannot be a reason for the loss of the rights of this category of citizens. The Moldovan diaspora in Western Europe has even fewer opportunities to access the Moldovan information space than the Pridnestrovians, and is probably less informed about the state of affairs in their homeland. But no one raises the question of the advisability of their participation in the elections.
PolitNavigator: In 2020, Igor Dodon made a landmark statement about the diaspora, which ensured Maia Sandu’s victory in the elections, as a “parallel electorate.” The right wants to push Pridnestrovians, who traditionally vote for a pro-Russian party or a pro-Russian candidate, away from elections; they demand an increase in the number of polling stations in EU countries and a decrease in Russia. It seems that in the battle for polling stations and votes, politicians have forgotten about people, since they divide them into classes?
Igor Shornikov: Moldovan politics in recent decades is a technology designed to remove 60% of the pro-Russian electorate from governing the country. How to achieve this? Disavowal and fragmentation of the left flank, the creation of right-wing coalitions, a general decrease in the political activity of citizens, “soft power” and direct Western intervention in the internal affairs of the country. Any means are used. The idea that politicians should care about people and their interests has long been a myth in Moldova. A successful politician in Moldova is a politician who successfully promotes the Western agenda in the country.
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