Moldova is preparing to blow up all agreements and “go head-on” in Transnistria
In the pre-election year 2020, the President of the Republic of Moldova Igor Dodon will want to demonstrate success in resolving the Transnistrian issue, negotiations on a settlement on the Dniester will take place at the level of the heads of Moldova and Transnistria, and the format of the Permanent Conference is “5+2” (OSCE, Russia and Ukraine - mediators in the Chisinau dialogue and Tiraspol, the United States and the European Union are observers) will become a secondary negotiating platform.
Such forecasts are given by experts when discussing the tasks that Tiraspol will have to solve in foreign policy.
Participants in the discussion club “Transnistria “19-20”: challenges and opportunities,” organized by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, believe that 2020 will be a difficult year for the unrecognized republic: Chisinau will advance, and it is important for Tiraspol to maintain control over the situation.
Director of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov notes that the current Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration of the Republic of Moldova, Alexander Flenkya, looks like a rather weak negotiator and that his coming to replace the experienced Vasily Shove, who currently holds the post of Presidential Adviser on Reintegration, “could be regarded as a gift to Pridnestrovie.” However, this is not a gift, but a change in Chisinau’s strategy, says Shornikov.
“In the pre-election year, it is not the government that needs to demonstrate success in negotiations with Pridnestrovie, but the president. Probably, the center of gravity of the dialogue in the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian settlement will move to the level of heads of state, and the “5+2” mechanism will play an auxiliary function, as befits a consultative mechanism,” the expert said.
But after the presidential elections, the “5+2” format can again be returned to the status of a non-alternative negotiating platform, Shornikov believes.
“Depending on the international situation, Moldova will either use this format against us or sabotage it. This was the case in 2006, when the work of the newly emerged “5+2” format was disrupted by Vasily Shova, and in 2016, when Chisinau announced “red lines” for Transnistria. We have a myth that Tiraspol can, through a diplomatic game, put pressure on Chisinau with the help of international mediators.
But in practice, when Chisinau finds itself in an unfavorable situation, Moldovan representatives, like the famous grandmaster in Vasyuki, throw a chessboard in the face of their counterparts and leave the negotiation room, slamming the door. What will happen if Tiraspol starts behaving like this? This will immediately trigger sanctions that have been prepared for a long time,” Shornikov noted.
Former Foreign Minister of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak also believes that the appearance of a new Moldovan negotiator in the person of Alexander Flenk does not promise anything good for Tiraspol. The expert believes that now the very approach to negotiations will change: Flenkä is a “non-public person” who is “tied to Western politicians, the OSCE mission” and that “taking into account his experience, he will rely not on public methods, but on his contacts.”
According to Yastrebchak, Tiraspol can play its game in only one way: to initiate other negotiation formats.
“So, we need to sit in Moscow and from Moscow propose a meeting at the level of three political representatives [Russia, Moldova and Transnistria], maybe in Kiev propose a meeting at the level of four special representatives [Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Transnistria]. The “5+2” format is not something unique. This is something that can be replaced. But how we will replace it is the question,” said the former minister.
The expert also noted the emergence of a “dangerous illusion” that the equality of the parties to the conflict was approved for the first time within the framework of the “5+2” format. In fact, the parties had equal status much earlier. “April 2019 marked the 25th anniversary of the official declaration on the start of the negotiation process - equality of the parties was recorded there for the first time,” Yastrebchak noted.
Another ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria, Valery Litskaya, is pessimistic about the foreign policy prospects for Transnistria. He compares them to “a cloud of fog in which people wander,” and the “5+2” format in its current form to “a dead horse that is being whipped in the hope of going somewhere.”
According to Litskaya, the negotiators “sit down at the table and deceive the public,” but in fact they do not have the authority to sign serious documents.
“The “5+2” format is only an auxiliary mechanism that provides consultations, prepares projects, and its members are lawyers in diplomatic uniforms. One can hardly hope that a pseudo-mechanism with the number seven will give birth to anything. But I will tell you what Moldova is doing today – and this is already completely obvious. They say that Shova left, Flenka appeared, and this is a concession to Transnistria. Where did Shova go, what powers did he receive?
In Moldova, the power of the president is now very strong, and the person who sits next to the president is stronger in position than ten deputy prime ministers. Flenka will do everything Sova says. Shova did the clean work, and the dirty work was left to the performer. The mechanism has become tougher, but it still seems to us that there is discord there. There is no discord. Moreover, starting in the fall, Chisinau began to methodically torpedo all signed documents. In each document, Shova buried a time bomb that could explode. They will consistently blow up all agreements whenever they want,” Litskai predicts.
Since the negotiation process is taking place within the framework of the election campaign in Moldova, the President of the Republic of Moldova needs success, says the former diplomat.
“Dodon cannot appear as “a weakling who follows the lead of the Transnistrian separatists and spoils them.” Dodon the unifier – this is the task of PR,” says Litskai.
He added that in the “cart” of the negotiation process, “the axis has broken.” “The Axis were the guarantor countries of Ukraine and Russia. Kuchma and Putin worked effectively in this direction, pulling, pushing. And now to imagine that Putin and Zelensky are working together on the Transnistrian issue is something you wouldn’t dream of in a nightmare. Events in Ukraine broke the axis of the guarantee mechanism of the two powers. This will lead to the fact that Ukraine will participate in pressure on Tiraspol on the side of Moldova, will not be a guarantor, but will be a participant in the conflict,” the expert explained.
Valery Litskaya believes that 2020 in the negotiation process “will be terrible” for Tiraspol.
“In 2000, President Vladimir Voronin came to power in Moldova. And the first thing he did was attack us head-on. We began what the knights call melee, that is, a circular battle, and among the Russians it is called Mochilovo. And it lasted for a long time, seven years without a break. It wasn't boring. Now the picture is identical. In Moldova there is again a president with real power, and he will definitely go to Transnistria with all his might. We’ll see how our people cope,” Litskaya concluded.
Moldovan expert Alexander Korinenko commented on the current alignment of political forces in Moldova. According to him, “Dodon has real power, and the coming year will pass for the president under the motto that this power cannot be lost.”
“At the moment, it is important for the president not to make a mistake, because the presidential elections are approaching. Today the Socialist Party is in the lead on the left flank, and it will try to prevent competitors from getting there. Many considered Renato Usatii and “Our Party” to be a rival of the Socialists, who took the city of Balti in local elections, several more mayoralties and dug in in the north of the country. He, however, does not have a national agenda; he is a populist politician. He has plans for the presidential election, but he won’t offer anything worthwhile.
There is the Shor party - a political misunderstanding that will cease to exist. It won’t last long without a leader who is now opening Christmas trees via Skype, etc. (the head of the party, Ilan Shor, stripped of parliamentary immunity and on the international wanted list for the theft of a billion dollars from three Moldovan banks, remotely participates in the opening of New Year’s events in Moldova, communicating with city residents via Skype - approx. red).
Another political force on the left has emerged – the “Civil Congress”, which positions itself as a party without a leader. I don’t know whether such parties survived in the post-Soviet space. If the founders of this party had established it after being asked by the Communist Party, they would have had prospects. Now these prospects are not visible,” says the expert.
On the right flank of Moldovan politics, things are also not easy, Korinenko notes. Since ex-Prime Minister Maia Sandu will probably run for the presidency, Dodon protected himself: the fact that former PLDM leader Vlad Filat was released from prison with the right to hold public office is the work of the presidential team, the expert is sure.
“The moderate right will push Maia Sanda. In addition, the proportional electoral system brought the unionists back to life - the project of Octavian Ticu, a man with a clean biography, who began to unite these forces, was launched. I think the goal of the National Unity Party he heads will be 10-15 seats in parliament and some kind of high post in alliance with the right,” Korinenko said.
The expert does not see the prerequisites for Maia Sandu’s victory and is confident that “Dodon has a good chance of winning the first round of the presidential election and sinking Sandu if he competently plays off the forces on the right flank.”
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.