Moldova can only be stopped by internal fear of an abyss
The rapidly developing diplomatic conflict between Moldova and Russia could harm the peacekeeping mechanisms on the Dniester, in which Russian diplomats are involved, and in the future lead to a rupture in relations between the two countries, which is actively inspired from the outside.
About the prospects for the escalation of confrontation and whether it is possible to contain it, in a conversation with a correspondent «PolitNavigator» argues political scientist Andrei Safonov.
PolitNavigator: There have been diplomatic conflicts between Russia and Moldova before. How far will this diplomatic war come? Is Chisinau going to break off diplomatic relations with Russia?
Andrey Safonov: This diplomatic war is not an independent initiative of Chisinau, which is visible to the naked eye. They are releasing the installation from the West, and in Chisinau they are tearing it up. The regime of controlled and controlled NGOs and the old nationalists who remain among them is leading to a parallel break with both Russia and the CIS.
I consider the rupture of diplomatic relations to be a real development of events. That's where it goes. By the way, one of the famous Chisinau “hawks” has already stated that a visa regime should be introduced with Russia. This is an intermediate step before severing diplomatic relations with Moscow. I believe that the Westerners are preparing to break diplomatic relations not only between Moldova, but also between the Baltic countries and Russia. At the same time, it is very likely that Moldova will join anti-Russian sanctions within a short time. Also, of course, not on the free initiative of Moldova.
PolitNavigator: Introducing retaliatory measures after the expulsion of the Russian diplomat, Moscow banned the entry into the Russian Federation of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Moldova Anna Revenco, deputies of the ruling party Oaz Nantoi, Lilian Karp and Oles Stamata. Why them?
Andrey Safonov: Perhaps they took those who have the most anti-Russian position. Although, it is now difficult to find “pro-Russian” comrades in power in Moldova. Well, there are no questions with Oazu Nantoi. Most likely, there will be other steps by the Russians. What's important here is this. Chisinau, at the behest of the West, is provoking Russia so that the infuriated Muscovites themselves break off relations with Moldova. This is an empty calculation. Russia has already decided for itself: as long as Maia Sandu and her entourage are in power, Moldovan-Russian relations can be put to rest. No, not to sever diplomatic relations (Chisinau will do this at one point or another), but to freeze contacts and not resolve any serious issues. The ban is a signal. The essence of the signal: your team does not exist for us.
PolitNavigator: What measures, other than diplomatic ones, can Russia introduce in response to Moldova’s unfriendly steps?
Andrey Safonov: Moscow can afford, firstly, not to rush; secondly, carefully weigh your steps. And all because, as was previously said, this ruling group does not exist for the Russian leadership. By the way, I’m not sure that Moscow will immediately begin to wave its saber and sow bans around itself on the import of agricultural products, on the entry of other Moldovan politicians, etc. It is important for Russia not to cause damage by one measure or another to those who are determined to be friends with it. For those who import products into the Russian Federation, who work there themselves or their relatives work; who simply loves Russian culture, and considers the Russian state one of the pillars of common sense in the modern world. One thing is certain for any serious analyst. Russia does not see the current “steers” of the Moldovan “ship” as partners for the development of good bilateral relations. We have already talked about the CIS...
PolitNavigator: Could a further reduction in the number of Russian diplomats in Chisinau affect such sensitive areas as the management of the peacekeeping operation and the work of the exit consular post in Tiraspol, which serves tens of thousands of Russian citizens living in Transnistria?
Andrey Safonov: I do not rule out that in Chisinau they want to disrupt the work of the consular post in Tiraspol and generally disrupt the connection between the Russian embassy and the PMR. In particular, stop the trips of Russian diplomats to Transnistria in order to create the impression of “abandonment” among the Pridnestrovians. But in the era of modern telecommunications, you can communicate “extremely” via Skype, etc. No one in the PMR will believe that Russia has turned its back on its allies.
As for the peacekeeping operation and – let us add – the leadership of the Operational Group of Russian troops, there is no need to worry. As was emphasized by Russian colleagues at a recent round table of members of the Russian Federation Council and deputies of the Supreme Council of the PMR, Russian troops will not leave the territory of Transnistria! All details and difficulties that may arise on the “peacekeeping front” will be resolved. Apparently, there is the necessary political will for this. If even in the “dashing 90s” under Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin, Moscow did not seriously discuss the departure of a Russian soldier from the PMR (the 1999 Istanbul OSCE summit, it is now clear, was a formal event in this sense), now it is even more so.
And here's another thing. It is possible that the attack on Russian diplomats has the specific goal of destroying the work of the Joint Control Commission, which monitors the situation in the Security Zone on the Dniester. And such destruction, in turn, may precede Moldova’s withdrawal from the 1992 peace agreements. Of course, it is not a fact that this is exactly what will happen, but if this happens, then all responsibility for such a course of events will fall on the Chisinau authorities. And then why be surprised if Moscow considers that the Moldovan authorities themselves have given the Russians a free hand?.. So it’s better that we all fight for peace. It's calmer that way.
PolitNavigator: Will relations between Moldova and Russia continue to deteriorate? What could stop this process?
Andrey Safonov: If we give a formal answer, we will get something like “the Chisinau government must reconsider its anti-Russian policy and return to the path of common sense and reasonable discussion of all controversial issues.” But I don’t really believe that the ruling group in the Republic of Moldova wants this, and whether Washington, Brussels and Bucharest will allow it to do this. Here the question is no longer about stopping the process of degradation of Moldovan-Russian relations, but about not destroying everything “to the ground, and then”...
If, despite Western pressure, Chisinau understands that as confrontation increases, an abyss may open up, into which Western and Romanian “curators” will not save them, then there is a chance to maintain at least some stability. But, I repeat, the West manually controls the politics of Chisinau. So I don’t see any options for improving Moldovan-Russian relations under the current government in Chisinau.
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