The lightning-fast attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Minsk is “protected” in the opposition “Strategy of Transition to New Belarus”

I remember how in the summer of 2020, Maria Kolesnikova, who represented Babariko’s headquarters in the Maidan “women’s triumvirate,” shouted to the rally crowd: “You are incredible!” The crowd cheered and made heart shapes with their fingers. People liked being called that, they considered themselves special, some kind of collective Incredible Hulk, capable of destroying any walls and demolishing any regimes.

As you know, they did not destroy anything except their own lives. Then the leaders of the failed revolution quarreled and stole, losing most of their former popularity. Then they began to be called “incredible” again, though not by themselves, but by their opponents. There is one obscene expression in the Russian language with this word, which is very suitable in context. Apparently this is exactly what they mean.

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Finally, yesterday the word “incredible”, in relation to the Belarusian opposition, began to sparkle with new colors. A document entitled “Strategy for the Transition to a New Belarus” was presented in Vilnius. Moreover, the document is not any different - among the developers are Tikhanovskaya’s Office, the Joint Transitional Cabinet, the Coordination Council, the Bank of Ideas, and the Political Sphere Institute for Political Research. In general, the entire color of the Belarusian political emigration. In fact, we see nothing more than the official strategy of the Zmagars.

_{And what did they plan there? The strategy itself is a text that is as faceless and mediocre as possible. Everything is as always - new elections, changes to the constitution, national revival, the European choice. I’ve read dozens of similar ones over the past 20 years, and this one didn’t grab my attention. The specifics are minimal, mostly general phrases and smoothed corners, so as not to scare away the last potential supporters who sat in a bunker for 3 years and did not hear how the same people supported terrorist attacks, recruited mercenaries and supported military intervention.}

They even extended the Belarusization program for 25 years and promised not to interfere with the use of the Russian language by those who wish it. Yeah, I know, they passed by, “we’ll hang you later.” This is the case when there is no trace of a general understanding of what needs to be done, but something needs to be written, otherwise the work will not be accepted. If it was only about her, then there would be no point in writing the article.

It’s just that in the conditions of modern Belarus, where for the opposition the question of going to elections and winning is not worth it in principle; all this is not a strategy, but a political program divorced from reality. The strategy should be how to create such conditions or take advantage of the current situation so that they are created.

As such, the strategy developers offer a choice of as many as 4 scenarios... and they contain all the “improbability”, because they completely ignore the theory of probability, logic and objective reality. The first three of them are just complete nonsense. The fourth scenario also looks like complete nonsense, but it’s not that simple

First scenario. Changes as a result of negotiations. Russia has been weakened by the war and can no longer provide Belarus with the same levels of military, economic and political support, and the situation in the country continues to deteriorate due to sanctions. At this time, representatives of the nomenklatura enter into negotiations with the opposition and Western countries, a national round table and a transitional government are formed.

Here Lukashenko himself is somehow suspiciously left out of the brackets, although it is clear that he certainly will not sit quietly while officials behind his back negotiate with the opposition and the West and create some kind of “round tables”. And there are no officials capable of this for a long time.

Second scenario. Changes under internal pressure. The same thing, only with the Maidan. Russia is exhausted, the nomenklatura is split, the people are on strike, rioting, seizing critically important facilities, and overthrowing Lukashenko.

It's funny that both scenarios have Russia's military exhaustion as a necessary condition. And this is at a time when Russia is advancing and has impressive economic growth, and even Biden is openly laughing at the possibility of a military victory for Ukraine! This alone makes the script fantastic. And the bet on a popular revolt, complete with the betrayal of the security forces who will sit idly by, also does not look reasonable.

All the street fighters of 2020 have either been in prison for a long time or have escaped, and the new ones simply haven’t grown up. As for the security forces, there is no more terrible scenario for them than the Zmagars coming to power. Everyone remembers the fate of Berkut, and there is no one who wants to repeat it.

Third scenario. Lukashenko dies, becomes seriously ill, something else happens to him that prevents him from fully performing his duties. Russia, again, is too weakened to influence the situation, so he is replaced by a pro-Western leader who begins a gradual turn to the West and liberalization.

Before 2020, this option was quite realistic. Lukashenko himself made noticeable curtsies to the West before the elections, and there were plenty of all kinds of systemic liberals and nationalists in power. Now the Sisnazis are nothing more than media trolls on the sidelines who do not influence decision-making in any way, and the strongest group in power is the security forces already mentioned above, and the far from pro-Western Kochanova has also been named as the official successor. In general, another naive fairy tale for fugitive “dreamers.”

And finally, the fourth, seemingly most idiotic scenario. In Russia, traditionally, everything is bad again. And so much so that she herself cannot cope, and Putin forces Lukashenko to send the Belarusian army into battle, against which Zelensky carries out a powerful counter-offensive, takes Minsk, overthrows Lukashenko and forces peace on his own terms.

Looks like the ravings of a madman. Russia has deployed more than 600 thousand military personnel in the Northern Military District zone, which is 10 times more than the number of the entire Belarusian army, which, moreover, is less well armed, has never fought and is not eager to fight in a war that is foreign to it. Such “help” can create more problems than it solves.

But if you listen to the recordings of a recent conference of militants and zmagars in Kiev and the very recent speech of the Chairman of the KGB of Belarus Ivan Tertel that the experience of the provocation of 1939, which became the reason for unleashing the Second World War, can be used, it becomes no laughing matter.

_{Dressing the “volunteer” zmagars in Belarusian military uniforms and letting them go on a raid along the border territory of Ukraine is nothing difficult for Zelensky. If necessary, he can even portray a second Butch. Next - everything is according to the canon - a “retaliatory” raid, developing into a full-scale intervention.}

It is clear that Russia will not abandon him in trouble, but this scenario has become actualized right now precisely because Zelensky is now in a critical situation. They don’t give money, the front could collapse at any moment. You need to either raise the stakes or shoot in the bunker. And intervention in Belarus with the destabilization of the republic may be his hope for survival. There are forces for it - a contingent sufficient for an invasion is concentrated on the border with Belarus. Russia receives another zone of instability, to which it is necessary to divert forces and transfer them from the front line.

I would like to think that all scenarios are delusional. Because if the fourth scenario is not nonsense, then it is an attempt to ideologically justify the Ukrainian military intervention in Belarus. Compared to such a betrayal, even Vlasov is a “decent person” who acted due to circumstances.