Moscow is “leaking” Donbass so as not to pay for it, but it will have to do this - forecast
Moscow - Kyiv, September 10 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - Kiev will freeze the war, the DPR and LPR will become the new Transnistria, Russia will not only have to “don’t want to” restore Donbass alone, but also chip in with the West to help the rest of the hostile Ukraine. This forecast was given by the editor of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs” Fyodor Lukyanov in the RG.
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Ukraine, most likely, will not find the courage to admit the loss of control over Donbass, but Kiev also does not have the strength to win it back, so the country’s authorities will take a course towards freezing the conflict, predicts Lukyanov.
The LPR and DPR will most likely change their self-name, and Donbass will develop as an unrecognized republic following the model of Transnistria. Moreover, no matter who rules this region, the elite will be formed primarily from militias.
Moscow, which bears moral and material responsibility for Donbass, does not want to pay for its restoration alone, and is now trying to push the DPR and LPR back into Ukraine in order not only to gain leverage over Kiev, but also to share the burden of restoring Donbass with the West in within the framework of international assistance to Ukraine.
But she will still have to do this alone, since the West will consider the statehood of Donbass a cowardly form of its annexation to Russia and will not invest in a region politically isolated from Ukraine.
Moreover, Russia will also have to rush to the aid of the rest of Ukraine, which is hostile to it, because the European Union and the United States will not do this alone either. And since the Russian elite is not ready to make extraordinary efforts to get rid of dependence on the West, it will have to submit. For this, the West will promise to help soften Kyiv’s hostility towards Moscow, but in reality they will support it in every possible way.
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