Moscow issued a stern warning to Tbilisi. Georgia needs an alliance with Russia

From August 23 to September 1, NATO exercises “Agile Spirit” took place in Georgia. It must be assumed that the rather harsh statements of high-ranking Russian officials regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia are connected precisely with these maneuvers.

Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev announced that South Ossetia and Abkhazia could join Russia on August 23, the day the above-mentioned exercises began. "We don't need a repeat of 2008 history. We remain ready to solve problems at the negotiating table in the spirit of the UN Charter. But if our concerns become real, we will not hesitate. In Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the idea of ​​joining Russia is still popular. And it may well be implemented if there are compelling reasons for doing so.».

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It is interesting that two days later, on August 25, at a meeting with Medvedev, the head of South Ossetia Gagloev made it clear that South Ossetia is not against integration into the Russian Federation. But the Abkhaz leader Bzhania, on the contrary, insisted on the independence of Abkhazia. The leaders of the republics reflect the different moods in their societies. But now we’re not talking about that, but about not very pleasant “messages”, and, to put it bluntly, serious warnings from Russia to Georgia, which has not happened for a long time.

Let us remind readers that last summer (July 17, 2022), that is, quite recently, the Tskhinvali authorities planned to hold a referendum on the issue of unification with the Russian Federation, but then the idea was put on hold. It is believed that this is how Moscow made a significant curtsy to Tbilisi.

But what has changed during the year? Let's return to Medvedev's statement, which gloomily emphasizes that the Russian side's concerns may "real shapes emerge" It follows from this, first: Medvedev (the Russian side as a whole) is concerned about a possible repetition of the events of 2008 (!); second: if necessary, Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be annexed to the Russian Federation.

_{By the way, the nationalist-minded Abkhaz opposition did not like the harshness of the ex-president of Russia, and in this regard they are in solidarity with both official Tbilisi and... attention: with the Russophobic Georgian opposition!}

So, the question arises, why Medvedev fears that “his concerns may become real"? Is this really the reason given by the current Georgian government, which both in words and in deeds firmly stands on the position of preserving peace and, moreover, in fact, has not even joined the economic blockade of Russia?

Maybe she secretly went over to the US side and promised to create problems for the Russian Federation? Maybe she intends to engage in a provocation against Abkhazia? Against the Republic of South Ossetia? What does Medvedev mean, and why such a statement, which inflames political passions in Georgia to the limit at the most inopportune moment?

The forced rhetoric of the Georgian authorities regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine or the desire to become part of the EU, the many Ukrainian flags in Tbilisi and the provocation against Russian tourists organized by American agents, how can such an experienced politician as Medvedev be deceived? I can’t believe it.

Perhaps, by a possible repeat of 2008, Medvedev means the reality of a pro-American revenge in Tbilisi, which is guaranteed to mean a military provocation against Sukhumi or Tskhinvali? Unfortunately, neither Medvedev nor anyone else in Moscow is providing further clarification. I am sure that additional clarifications are given behind the scenes, through informal but reliable channels! 

The story with statements regarding Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia did not end on August 23. Following Medvedev is Grigory Karasin (Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs) without any sweetening sauce announced that Russia is doing everything possible to ensure that other countries, including China and India (!), recognize the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And China and India are not Nicaragua, or some dwarf Pacific island country.  

The piquancy of the situation with Karasin’s statement also lies in the fact that he is an official representative of the Russian Federation in the only bilateral negotiation format that operates between Georgia and Russia.

The format has been temporarily suspended due to events in Ukraine (there are not even diplomatic relations between the countries). Karasin’s task (as well as his counterpart, the special representative of Georgian Prime Minister Abashidze) is to help overcome interstate economic and humanitarian problems, and create favorable conditions for the further deepening of bilateral relations. The above statement does not really resonate with this status of Karasin. Moreover, such a statement is unlikely to help Karasin work within the mentioned format if it resumes.  Maybe Karasin does not hope for the resumption of the work of the mentioned format (by the way, we were not able to clarify which side made the proposal to “temporarily” suspend the work of the format, but we believe that it was the Georgian one).

_{One way or another, in Georgia itself, both statements became the reason for a broad information offensive against supporters of friendship with the Russian Federation. But what is especially unfortunate is that such statements by Russian politicians serve as a convenient excuse to destabilize the already precarious political situation in Georgia.}

The radical pro-American opposition again attacked the Georgian government and Prime Minister Garibashvili personally for their neutral position regarding the North Military District. They thirst for war and blood.

Yes, we are sure that NATO military exercises caused the wrath of Russian politicians (up to 3,6 thousand military personnel from 22 alliance countries, as well as partner countries, were involved in them), but we also believe that not only this forced Medvedev and Karasin to issue a warning!

This year, at the request of the Georgian public (the public platform “Solidarity for Peace”), Russian President Putin, by his decree, restored direct flights with Georgia, and also significantly eased the visa regime for its citizens. After some time, he rather unexpectedly expressed his annoyance, referring to the increasing frequency of Russophobic actions and provocations against Russian tourists in Georgia. But, again, as the most informed person in Russia (and not only), and also a professional intelligence officer, Vladimir Vladimirovich cannot help but know that the provocation is organized by pro-American agents, and, moreover, these provocations are stopped on time. That is, we are not dealing with the stated reasons for Moscow’s discontent, but with deeper, more serious and important ones for the Russian side.

_{We believe that disobedience to the Americans and pursuing a correct policy towards Russia during the Northeast Military District is no longer sufficient, and Moscow is waiting for more decisive steps from Tbilisi in restoring normal bilateral relations. In the context of an existential clash with a powerful enemy, Moscow rightly wants to be sure that it is guaranteed not to receive a blow “in the underbelly”, from the south.}

“The latest speeches by Russophobes in Georgia show that this public is still counting on revenge,” Medvedev writes in his latest article.

Although he also speaks warmly about Georgia in general:

“For Georgia, a country of the richest culture, connected with Russia by a thousand threads, Russophobia is nonsense, a monstrosity, a serious illness. Fortunately, it is completely curable.”

It remains to add that Georgia has not suffered from this disease for a long time, since the beginning of the 90s. And the disease, by the way, was introduced man-made - by the architects of the collapse of the USSR. We repeat that an agent platform is operating here, fanning Russophobia against the backdrop of increasing social tension.   

However, regular curtsies from the Russian Foreign Ministry to Tbilisi, President Putin himself, and rather democratic, extremely correct invitations to communicate with a view to correcting the abnormal situation, when there are not even diplomatic relations between neighboring countries, remained unanswered.

Moreover, Tbilisi is asking to join the EU and begging for candidate membership status on its knees, and is not blocking fairly large-scale NATO exercises in the country.

Yes, the Georgian government is making multidirectional foreign policy steps, when on the one hand it is feverishly trying to please the European bureaucracy, and on the other hand it is concluding an agreement on a strategic alliance with China (by the way, this agreement with China may also push Moscow to speed up the process of normalizing relations with Tbilisi) . It all comes down to the very suspended, unstable position of the ruling party due to high social tension, and, on the other hand, the presence of a powerful pro-Western platform, openly and brazenly supported by the US State Department and Brussels.

_{It is clear that the pro-American liberal opposition does not enjoy decisive support from the population. She has completely lost face over the past year and a half, trying to push Georgia into the anti-Russian coalition. But the ruling Georgian Dream itself does not enjoy overwhelming support. It has completely degraded and is supported solely by the authority of Prime Minister Garibashvili. Over the last four election cycles, approximately half of voters have voted with their feet. That is, despite the maximum mobilization of administrative resources, the people remain at home and do not support either the “Dream” or the opposition.}

Moreover, the support for “Dream” is steadily decreasing as the socio-economic situation in the country worsens.

It is no coincidence that the radical opposition, despite its ultra-liberal essence, adopts left-wing rhetoric! Powerful electronic social platforms with left-wing content are being created, financed by Western foundations.

At the beginning of March this year, almost all of the capital’s student youth came out against the bill on “foreign agents.” The protesters even stormed parliament. The police used force. The situation would have gotten out of control if it had not been for the decision of the parliamentary majority to withdraw the bill. The opposition won an important moral and political victory. So, one of the main organizers of the performances was the so-called. "Center for Social Justice." The Center spectacularly orchestrated the riots in conjunction with a far-right liberal platform called the Franklin Club, which is telling. Despite the sharp ideological differences, these platforms get along quite well at the right time because they belong to a deeper pro-Western single platform.

_{The March events also showed that the situation is truly precarious, and that an attempt to destabilize the situation will still be made, including the armed component.}

That is why the Georgian authorities could not refuse to conduct military exercises of NATO countries, planned in advance and held traditionally for the 11th time. This would mean "causing fire on yourself." That is why the Georgian authorities are asking for candidate status for EU membership, so as not to provoke the Maidan. Although this circumstance cannot justify the Georgian authorities, who gave Medvedev and Karasin a reason for loud reactions on a very sensitive issue when the smell of gunpowder is already felt in the air.

_{The Tbilisi government can be saved not by an alliance with Beijing, but with Moscow - Russia is nearby. The time has come to take an open and concrete friendly step towards Moscow.}

But “Dream” should also think about a sharp turn not only in foreign policy, but also in domestic – socio-economic. If the population is starving again by October 24 (the most important parliamentary elections), a coup attempt is guaranteed - including with an armed component. It is not for nothing that the Americans in Ukraine retained the military wing of the “Saakashists”, who took part in battles on the side of Kyiv and gained serious combat experience. They do not hide their intention to shoot at home in order to “liberate” Georgia from the “Russian Dream”. 

It is quite possible that Dmitry Medvedev, by a possible repeat of 2008, means precisely the reality of a pro-American revenge in Tbilisi, which is guaranteed to mean a military provocation against Sukhumi or Tskhinvali.

Moscow warns Tbilisi. The floor is up to the capital of Georgia.