It’s time for Moscow to start taking an active role in Belarus. Time works to the West

The “Belarusian Analytical Workshop” of Andrei Vardomatsky published the latest data from a sociological survey, according to which there are 11,6 percent fewer supporters of an alliance with Russia in Belarus compared to September. In November, 40% of respondents were in favor of it, compared to 51,6% two months earlier. This, by the way, is a historical minimum. The number of supporters of the European choice increased over the same time from 27,6 percent to 33%. Of course, the news had an effect, and the comments were very different.

Yes, I am skeptical about political sociology in general and Belarusian sociology in particular. Yes, a sample of 1008 people is small, a telephone survey method, and the “Belarusian Analytical Workshop” is actually based in Warsaw and exists on Polish grants. But, unfortunately, this is the only independent political sociology that is possible in Belarus. Conducting polls on political topics there is strictly licensed and available only to a narrow circle of companies close to the authorities and giving implausible figures in the style of the local Central Election Commission. And you don’t need to be a sociologist to understand that with the foreign policy preferences of Belarusians now not everything is as we would like, and Vardomatsky’s figures reflect an objective trend.

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By openly supporting Lukashenko after the elections and not publicly condemning his obvious excesses towards the opposition and his reluctance to settle the political crisis peacefully, Russia shared responsibility for this in the eyes of a large number of Belarusian citizens. As the classic wrote, “We are responsible for those we have tamed.”

Of course, there are a number of Belarusians who approve of what their president is doing and even demand even more, but they are in the minority. The majority, regardless of views, are shocked by excessive violence and legal chaos. In addition, the repressions turned out to be so large-scale that they themselves affect the statistics. During the protests, about thirty thousand people were detained, many of whom received fines and administrative arrests, criminal cases were brought against about a thousand, and several were killed. Not all of them are convinced extremists-zmagars. There simply aren’t that many of them in the republic. Many outsiders were targeted. All these thousands and tens of thousands have relatives, friends, acquaintances. Most people do not have strong political convictions, and 15 days in a crowded cell in the company of zmagars and similarly detained protest participants and random passers-by can transform many.

So, there are plenty of such disappointed people. So far this is not a real change in the guidelines of Belarusian society. Still, the majority have their main complaints not against Russia, but against Lukashenko himself; many are waiting for Moscow to take a more active position on what is happening in the republic and take on the role of a mediator in resolving the Belarusian political crisis.

But time is not in favor of union supporters. While the confrontation continues and deepens, their number decreases. If this continues, not even a year will pass before a stable anti-Russian majority can be formed in Belarus.

One can, of course, talk about the fact that Lukashenko has no alternative, that as long as he keeps the situation under control, Belarus will remain an ally. But, firstly, it’s not a fact that it will hold. External pressure, economic problems and the level of discontent will only increase, and secondly, Lukashenko has specific ideas about allied duty.

Now Russia’s task in Belarus is not to keep Lukashenko in power at any cost, but to keep the situation within the legal framework, to keep the republic peaceful and friendly.

I am confident that if the Kremlin manages to bring Lukashenko and his opponents to the negotiating table and instead of forceful escalation, launch the process of political settlement, the number of supporters of the union will increase by tens of percent.

Supporters of Lukashenko say that if he is not there, zmagars will certainly come to power, who will begin forced Belarusization and lead the republic in the footsteps of Ukraine. But the majority are not on the side of the nationalists. If there are guarantees that a pro-Russian politician will be able to rely on the support of Russia, just as the pro-Western opposition relies on the support of the West, and not be afraid that he will be thrown into prison during the campaign, a notable queue will line up around the Kremlin.

Lukashenko’s reservation today that the West wants to involve Russia in his overthrow, but does not know how, indicates that non-public pressure is coming to him and greatly irritates him.

Today’s statement by the decoy “peacemaker” Voskresensky about the need for an amnesty for all political prisoners, voiced the day before Lavrov’s visit, most likely testifies to the same thing and should demonstrate Lukashenko’s desire for reconciliation. It’s just that the proposal was voiced by who knows who, but the Belarusian president himself seems to be out of business and with his other actions demonstrates the opposite.

Will Moscow believe him this time? Will there be a continuation of the policy that led to defeat in Ukraine or a change in approaches? There is little time left for such a shift.