The IMF scares Russia with new sanctions, recession and outflow of $100 billion
Moscow - Kyiv, July 2 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The consequences of the conflict with Ukraine are a decrease in confidence in the economic prospects, a cooling of investor attitudes towards the country, capital outflow, a decline in consumer spending and an even more rapid weakening of the ruble, according to the fund’s report on the Russian economy .
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Capital outflow will exceed $100 billion in 2014 ($51 billion in the first quarter, $59,7 billion in 2013), the IMF expects. GDP growth this year may slow down to 0,2% (forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development - 0,5%), there is a possibility of recession and recession, in 2015 - a weak recovery of growth to 1%, IMF experts write.
New sanctions on the financial sector and energy could stop Russia's integration with the global economy, the fund warns. The risk of additional sanctions has already increased uncertainty for business and has a bad impact on investment, the IMF notes, geopolitical risks will lead to a decrease in bank profitability and asset quality.
Last week it became known that the United States and its G7 partners are ready to impose sectoral sanctions against Russia: in relation to the energy sector, including a ban on the export of technology. The timing has not been determined: much will depend on actions to resolve the crisis in Ukraine.
The dependence of the Russian oil and gas sector on imports is high, as follows from materials prepared for the meeting of the presidential commission on the fuel and energy sector in June: 100% of equipment is imported for projects for the development of offshore fields and LNG production, 24% for oil and gas production in general.
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